22,505 research outputs found
Forecasting of commercial sales with large scale Gaussian Processes
This paper argues that there has not been enough discussion in the field of
applications of Gaussian Process for the fast moving consumer goods industry.
Yet, this technique can be important as it e.g., can provide automatic feature
relevance determination and the posterior mean can unlock insights on the data.
Significant challenges are the large size and high dimensionality of commercial
data at a point of sale. The study reviews approaches in the Gaussian Processes
modeling for large data sets, evaluates their performance on commercial sales
and shows value of this type of models as a decision-making tool for
management.Comment: 1o pages, 5 figure
Automatic differentiation in machine learning: a survey
Derivatives, mostly in the form of gradients and Hessians, are ubiquitous in
machine learning. Automatic differentiation (AD), also called algorithmic
differentiation or simply "autodiff", is a family of techniques similar to but
more general than backpropagation for efficiently and accurately evaluating
derivatives of numeric functions expressed as computer programs. AD is a small
but established field with applications in areas including computational fluid
dynamics, atmospheric sciences, and engineering design optimization. Until very
recently, the fields of machine learning and AD have largely been unaware of
each other and, in some cases, have independently discovered each other's
results. Despite its relevance, general-purpose AD has been missing from the
machine learning toolbox, a situation slowly changing with its ongoing adoption
under the names "dynamic computational graphs" and "differentiable
programming". We survey the intersection of AD and machine learning, cover
applications where AD has direct relevance, and address the main implementation
techniques. By precisely defining the main differentiation techniques and their
interrelationships, we aim to bring clarity to the usage of the terms
"autodiff", "automatic differentiation", and "symbolic differentiation" as
these are encountered more and more in machine learning settings.Comment: 43 pages, 5 figure
A Factor Graph Approach to Automated Design of Bayesian Signal Processing Algorithms
The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based
algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning
community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has
much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific
probabilistic programming paradigm, namely message passing in Forney-style
factor graphs (FFGs), in the context of automated design of efficient Bayesian
signal processing algorithms. To this end, we developed "ForneyLab"
(https://github.com/biaslab/ForneyLab.jl) as a Julia toolbox for message
passing-based inference in FFGs. We show by example how ForneyLab enables
automatic derivation of Bayesian signal processing algorithms, including
algorithms for parameter estimation and model comparison. Crucially, due to the
modular makeup of the FFG framework, both the model specification and inference
methods are readily extensible in ForneyLab. In order to test this framework,
we compared variational message passing as implemented by ForneyLab with
automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and Monte Carlo methods
as implemented by state-of-the-art tools "Edward" and "Stan". In terms of
performance, extensibility and stability issues, ForneyLab appears to enjoy an
edge relative to its competitors for automated inference in state-space models.Comment: Accepted for publication in the International Journal of Approximate
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Uncertainty Updating in the Description of Coupled Heat and Moisture Transport in Heterogeneous Materials
To assess the durability of structures, heat and moisture transport need to
be analyzed. To provide a reliable estimation of heat and moisture distribution
in a certain structure, one needs to include all available information about
the loading conditions and material parameters. Moreover, the information
should be accompanied by a corresponding evaluation of its credibility. Here,
the Bayesian inference is applied to combine different sources of information,
so as to provide a more accurate estimation of heat and moisture fields [1].
The procedure is demonstrated on the probabilistic description of heterogeneous
material where the uncertainties consist of a particular value of individual
material characteristic and spatial fluctuations. As for the heat and moisture
transfer, it is modelled in coupled setting [2]
Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling for Automated Database Schema Matching
The problem of merging databases arises in many government and commercial
applications. Schema matching, a common first step, identifies equivalent
fields between databases. We introduce a schema matching framework that builds
nonparametric Bayesian models for each field and compares them by computing the
probability that a single model could have generated both fields. Our
experiments show that our method is more accurate and faster than the existing
instance-based matching algorithms in part because of the use of nonparametric
Bayesian models
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