Current Topics on Risk Analysis: ICRA6 and RISK2015 Conference

Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Current Topics on Risk Analysis: ICRA6 and RISK2015 Conference

Artículos presentados en la International Conference on Risk Analysis ICRA 6/RISK 2015, celebrada en Barcelona del 26 al 29 de mayo de 2015.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Relocation of the Rich : Migration in Response to Top Tax Rate Changes from Spanish Reforms

Recent Spanish tax reform granted regions the authority to set income tax rates, resulting in substantial tax di erentials. We use individual-level information from Social Security records over a period of one decade. Conditional on moving, taxes have a significant effect on location choice. A one percent increase in the net of tax rate for a region relative to others increases the probability of moving to that region by 1.7 percentage points. Focusing on the stock of top-taxpayers, we estimate an elasticity of the number of top taxpayers with respect to net-of-tax rates of 0.85. Using this elasticity, a theoretical model implies that the mechanical increase in tax revenue due to higher tax rates is larger than the loss in tax revenue from the out-flow of migration

Big Data in MultiAgent Systems: Market Design Solutions

El objetivo principal de esta Tesis es presentar un conjunto de novedosos y diferentes métodos en los que los sistemas multiagente pueden jugar un papel clave en predicciones y modelos económicos en un amplio conjunto de contextos. La hipótesis principal es que los sistemas multiagente permiten la creación de modelos macroeconómicos con microfundamentos reales que son capaces de representar la economía en los diferentes niveles de acuerdo con diferentes propósitos y necesidades. La investigación se estructura en seis capítulos. El Capítulo 1 es una introducción teórica al resto de los capítulos que presentan aplicaciones empíricas. En él se compara los sistemas multiagente con dos alternativas: los modelos de equilibrio general computable y la econometría espacial. El resto de los capítulos son intencionadamente diferentes en sus objetivos y sus contenidos. Estas cinco aplicaciones incorporan diferentes tipos de agentes: incluyen individuos (2, 5, 6), familias (2, 5), empresas (3, 5, 6), establecimientos (5), instituciones financieras (6) y usuarios (4). En el ámbito espacial, la desagregación espacial es deliberadamente diferente en cada aplicación: El capítulo 4 no incluye el espacio, El capítulo 6 es una aplicación para la zona euro en su conjunto y en el capítulo 3 se toma España en su conjunto. Los capítulos 2 y 5 exploran las dos de las principales posibilidades para la incorporación del espacio en los sistemas multiagente: el capítulo 2 incluye las regiones NUTS 3 de la Unión Europea y en el capítulo 5 se geolocalizan los agentes. En el capítulo 2 se desarrolla un sistema multiagente que incluye a todos los individuos de la Unión Europea. Con este sistema podemos predecir la población a escala regional para toda la Unión Europea y cómo distintos niveles de crecimiento económico repercuten asimismo sobre el empleo. En el capítulo 3 se presenta un modelo de simulación con los principales puntos de vista de la teoría de negocios para estudiar el crecimiento empresarial y la demografía empresarial en un modelo evolutivo estocástico. El modelo que se presenta también muestra cómo las empresas se adaptan a los cambios en las características deseadas del producto y el efecto de la crisis sobre estas dinámicas. El capítulo 4 discute el papel clave de los incentivos en la seguridad de los sistemas de información. Trabajos anteriores realizan este estudio utilizando un enfoque de teoría de juegos, pero el capítulo muestra que un modelo basado en agentes es capaz de incluir la heterogeneidad y las interrelaciones entre los individuos, y no se centra en el equilibrio alcanzado sino en la dinámica antes de su aparición. El objetivo del capítulo 5 es el estudio de los efectos de la Ley para la Revitalización Comercial (Ley de Dinamización Comercial) que fue aprobada en la Comunidad de Madrid durante el año 2012. Por último, el objetivo del capítulo 6 es explicar los determinantes de la inflación y pronosticar la tasa de inflación en la zona euro en los próximos cinco años. Se predice una inflación para la zona euro creciente hasta 2018 con un límite cercano al 2,5% en tasa interanual siempre que no se produzcan perturbaciones externas relevantes

Pandemics: Insurance and Social Protection

This open access book collects expert contributions on actuarial modelling and related topics, from machine learning to legal aspects, and reflects on possible insurance designs during an epidemic/pandemic. Starting by considering the impulse given by COVID-19 to the insurance industry and to actuarial research, the text covers compartment models, mortality changes during a pandemic, risk-sharing in the presence of low probability events, group testing, compositional data analysis for detecting data inconsistencies, behaviouristic aspects in fighting a pandemic, and insurers’ legal problems, amongst others. Concluding with an essay by a practicing actuary on the applicability of the methods proposed, this interdisciplinary book is aimed at actuaries as well as readers with a background in mathematics, economics, statistics, finance, epidemiology, or sociology

Bridging the Global Divide in AI Regulation: A Proposal for a Contextual, Coherent, and Commensurable Framework

This paper examines the current landscape of AI regulations, highlighting the divergent approaches being taken, and proposes an alternative contextual, coherent, and commensurable (3C) framework. The EU, Canada, South Korea, and Brazil follow a horizontal or lateral approach that postulates the homogeneity of AI systems, seeks to identify common causes of harm, and demands uniform human interventions. In contrast, the U.K., Israel, Switzerland, Japan, and China have pursued a context-specific or modular approach, tailoring regulations to the specific use cases of AI systems. The U.S. is reevaluating its strategy, with growing support for controlling existential risks associated with AI. Addressing such fragmentation of AI regulations is crucial to ensure the interoperability of AI. The present degree of proportionality, granularity, and foreseeability of the EU AI Act is not sufficient to garner consensus. The context-specific approach holds greater promises but requires further development in terms of details, coherency, and commensurability. To strike a balance, this paper proposes a hybrid 3C framework. To ensure contextuality, the framework categorizes AI into distinct types based on their usage and interaction with humans: autonomous, allocative, punitive, cognitive, and generative AI. To ensure coherency, each category is assigned specific regulatory objectives: safety for autonomous AI; fairness and explainability for allocative AI; accuracy and explainability for punitive AI; accuracy, robustness, and privacy for cognitive AI; and the mitigation of infringement and misuse for generative AI. To ensure commensurability, the framework promotes the adoption of international industry standards that convert principles into quantifiable metrics. In doing so, the framework is expected to foster international collaboration and standardization without imposing excessive compliance costs

Risk Management

Every business and decision involves a certain amount of risk. Risk might cause a loss to a company. This does not mean, however, that businesses cannot take risks. As disengagement and risk aversion may result in missed business opportunities, which will lead to slower growth and reduced prosperity of a company. In today's increasingly complex and diverse environment, it is crucial to find the right balance between risk aversion and risk taking. To do this it is essential to understand the complex, out of the whole range of economic, technical, operational, environmental and social risks associated with the company's activities. However, risk management is about much more than merely avoiding or successfully deriving benefit from opportunities. Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks. Lastly, risk management helps a company to handle the risks associated with a rapidly changing business environment

Pandemics: Insurance and Social Protection

This open access book collects expert contributions on actuarial modelling and related topics, from machine learning to legal aspects, and reflects on possible insurance designs during an epidemic/pandemic. Starting by considering the impulse given by COVID-19 to the insurance industry and to actuarial research, the text covers compartment models, mortality changes during a pandemic, risk-sharing in the presence of low probability events, group testing, compositional data analysis for detecting data inconsistencies, behaviouristic aspects in fighting a pandemic, and insurers’ legal problems, amongst others. Concluding with an essay by a practicing actuary on the applicability of the methods proposed, this interdisciplinary book is aimed at actuaries as well as readers with a background in mathematics, economics, statistics, finance, epidemiology, or sociology