A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization of Expensive Cost Functions, with Application to Active User Modeling and Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

We present a tutorial on Bayesian optimization, a method of finding the maximum of expensive cost functions. Bayesian optimization employs the Bayesian technique of setting a prior over the objective function and combining it with evidence to get a posterior function. This permits a utility-based selection of the next observation to make on the objective function, which must take into account both exploration (sampling from areas of high uncertainty) and exploitation (sampling areas likely to offer improvement over the current best observation). We also present two detailed extensions of Bayesian optimization, with experiments---active user modelling with preferences, and hierarchical reinforcement learning---and a discussion of the pros and cons of Bayesian optimization based on our experiences

Adaptive sensing performance lower bounds for sparse signal detection and support estimation

This paper gives a precise characterization of the fundamental limits of adaptive sensing for diverse estimation and testing problems concerning sparse signals. We consider in particular the setting introduced in (IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 57 (2011) 6222-6235) and show necessary conditions on the minimum signal magnitude for both detection and estimation: if ${\mathbf {x}}\in \mathbb{R}^n$ is a sparse vector with $s$ non-zero components then it can be reliably detected in noise provided the magnitude of the non-zero components exceeds $\sqrt{2/s}$. Furthermore, the signal support can be exactly identified provided the minimum magnitude exceeds $\sqrt{2\log s}$. Notably there is no dependence on $n$, the extrinsic signal dimension. These results show that the adaptive sensing methodologies proposed previously in the literature are essentially optimal, and cannot be substantially improved. In addition, these results provide further insights on the limits of adaptive compressive sensing.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/13-BEJ555 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection: a Bayesian experimental design approach

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify {the probability of} undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian {process} surrogates for failure detection and failure probability estimation. In particular, we consider the situation that the underlying computer models are extremely expensive, and in this setting, determining the sampling points in the state space is of essential importance. We formulate the problem as an optimal experimental design for Bayesian inferences of the limit state (i.e., the failure boundary) and propose an efficient numerical scheme to solve the resulting optimization problem. In particular, the proposed limit-state inference method is capable of determining multiple sampling points at a time, and thus it is well suited for problems where multiple computer simulations can be performed in parallel. The accuracy and performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by both academic and practical examples