6,942 research outputs found
Sequential Gaussian Processes for Online Learning of Nonstationary Functions
Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating
functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in
real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive
choice for modeling real-valued nonlinear functions due to their flexibility
and uncertainty quantification. However, the typical GP regression model
suffers from several drawbacks: i) Conventional GP inference scales
with respect to the number of observations; ii) updating a GP model
sequentially is not trivial; and iii) covariance kernels often enforce
stationarity constraints on the function, while GPs with non-stationary
covariance kernels are often intractable to use in practice. To overcome these
issues, we propose an online sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to fit mixtures
of GPs that capture non-stationary behavior while allowing for fast,
distributed inference. By formulating hyperparameter optimization as a
multi-armed bandit problem, we accelerate mixing for real time inference. Our
approach empirically improves performance over state-of-the-art methods for
online GP estimation in the context of prediction for simulated non-stationary
data and hospital time series data
Scalable Planning and Learning for Multiagent POMDPs: Extended Version
Online, sample-based planning algorithms for POMDPs have shown great promise
in scaling to problems with large state spaces, but they become intractable for
large action and observation spaces. This is particularly problematic in
multiagent POMDPs where the action and observation space grows exponentially
with the number of agents. To combat this intractability, we propose a novel
scalable approach based on sample-based planning and factored value functions
that exploits structure present in many multiagent settings. This approach
applies not only in the planning case, but also in the Bayesian reinforcement
learning setting. Experimental results show that we are able to provide high
quality solutions to large multiagent planning and learning problems
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