Block-diagonal covariance selection for high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models

Gaussian graphical models are widely utilized to infer and visualize networks of dependencies between continuous variables. However, inferring the graph is difficult when the sample size is small compared to the number of variables. To reduce the number of parameters to estimate in the model, we propose a non-asymptotic model selection procedure supported by strong theoretical guarantees based on an oracle inequality and a minimax lower bound. The covariance matrix of the model is approximated by a block-diagonal matrix. The structure of this matrix is detected by thresholding the sample covariance matrix, where the threshold is selected using the slope heuristic. Based on the block-diagonal structure of the covariance matrix, the estimation problem is divided into several independent problems: subsequently, the network of dependencies between variables is inferred using the graphical lasso algorithm in each block. The performance of the procedure is illustrated on simulated data. An application to a real gene expression dataset with a limited sample size is also presented: the dimension reduction allows attention to be objectively focused on interactions among smaller subsets of genes, leading to a more parsimonious and interpretable modular network.Comment: Accepted in JAS

An efficient message passing algorithm for multi-target tracking

We propose a new approach for multi-sensor multi-target tracking by constructing statistical models on graphs with continuous-valued nodes for target states and discrete-valued nodes for data association hypotheses. These graphical representations lead to message-passing algorithms for the fusion of data across time, sensor, and target that are radically different than algorithms such as those found in state-of-the-art multiple hypothesis tracking (MHT) algorithms. Important differences include: (a) our message-passing algorithms explicitly compute different probabilities and estimates than MHT algorithms; (b) our algorithms propagate information from future data about past hypotheses via messages backward in time (rather than doing this via extending track hypothesis trees forward in time); and (c) the combinatorial complexity of the problem is manifested in a different way, one in which particle-like, approximated, messages are propagated forward and backward in time (rather than hypotheses being enumerated and truncated over time). A side benefit of this structure is that it automatically provides smoothed target trajectories using future data. A major advantage is the potential for low-order polynomial (and linear in some cases) dependency on the length of the tracking interval N, in contrast with the exponential complexity in N for so-called N-scan algorithms. We provide experimental results that support this potential. As a result, we can afford to use longer tracking intervals, allowing us to incorporate out-of-sequence data seamlessly and to conduct track-stitching when future data provide evidence that disambiguates tracks well into the past