4,457 research outputs found
Stochastic on-time arrival problem in transit networks
This article considers the stochastic on-time arrival problem in transit
networks where both the travel time and the waiting time for transit services
are stochastic. A specific challenge of this problem is the combinatorial
solution space due to the unknown ordering of transit line arrivals. We propose
a network structure appropriate to the online decision-making of a passenger,
including boarding, waiting and transferring. In this framework, we design a
dynamic programming algorithm that is pseudo-polynomial in the number of
transit stations and travel time budget, and exponential in the number of
transit lines at a station, which is a small number in practice. To reduce the
search space, we propose a definition of transit line dominance, and techniques
to identify dominance, which decrease the computation time by up to 90% in
numerical experiments. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted on both a
synthetic network and the Chicago transit network.Comment: 29 pages; 12 figures. This manuscript version is made available under
the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
A dynamic ridesharing dispatch and idle vehicle repositioning strategy with integrated transit transfers
We propose a ridesharing strategy with integrated transit in which a private
on-demand mobility service operator may drop off a passenger directly
door-to-door, commit to dropping them at a transit station or picking up from a
transit station, or to both pickup and drop off at two different stations with
different vehicles. We study the effectiveness of online solution algorithms
for this proposed strategy. Queueing-theoretic vehicle dispatch and idle
vehicle relocation algorithms are customized for the problem. Several
experiments are conducted first with a synthetic instance to design and test
the effectiveness of this integrated solution method, the influence of
different model parameters, and measure the benefit of such cooperation.
Results suggest that rideshare vehicle travel time can drop by 40-60%
consistently while passenger journey times can be reduced by 50-60% when demand
is high. A case study of Long Island commuters to New York City (NYC) suggests
having the proposed operating strategy can substantially cut user journey times
and operating costs by up to 54% and 60% each for a range of 10-30 taxis
initiated per zone. This result shows that there are settings where such
service is highly warranted
Dynamic optimal travel strategies in intelligent stochastic transit networks
This paper addresses the search for a run-based dynamic optimal travel strategy, to be supplied through mobile devices (apps) to travelers on a stochastic multiservice transit network, which includes a system forecasting of bus travel times and bus arrival times at stops. The run-based optimal strategy is obtained as a heuristic solution to a Markovian decision problem. The hallmarks of this paper are the proposals to use only traveler state spaces and estimates of dispersion of forecast bus arrival times at stops in order to determine transition probabilities. The first part of the paper analyses some existing line-based and run-based optimal strategy search methods. In the second part, some aspects of dynamic transition probability computation in intelligent transit systems are presented, and a new method for dynamic run-based optimal strategy search is proposed and applied
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Reliable routing in schedule-based transit networks
textA framework is proposed for determining the least expected cost path in a schedule-based time-expanded public transit network where travel times, and thus bus arrival and departure times at stops, are stochastic. Transfer reliability is incorporated in a label-correcting algorithm with a penalty function for the expected waiting time when transferring that reflects the likelihood of making a successful transfer. The algorithm is implemented in transit assignment on an Austin, Texas test network, using actual bus arrival and departure time distributions from vehicle location data. Assignment results are compared with those of a deterministic shortest path based on the schedule and from a calibrated transit assignment model. Simulations of the network and passenger paths are also conducted to evaluate the overall path reliability. The reliable shortest path algorithm is found to penalize transferring and provide paths with improved transfer and overall reliability. The proposed model is realistic, incorporating reliability measures from vehicle location data, and practical, given the efficient shortest path approach and application to transit assignment.Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineerin
Online Predictive Optimization Framework for Stochastic Demand-Responsive Transit Services
This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for
dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The
proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to
periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To
predict demand for the service, we use Quantile Regression to estimate the
marginal distribution of movement counts between each pair of serviced
locations. The framework then combines these marginals into a joint demand
distribution by constructing a Gaussian copula, which captures the structure of
correlation between the marginals. For supply optimization, we devise a linear
programming model, which simultaneously determines the route structure and the
service frequency according to the predicted demand. Importantly, our framework
both preserves the uncertainty structure of future demand and leverages this
for robust route optimization, while keeping both components decoupled. We
evaluate our framework using a real-world case study of autonomous mobility in
a university campus in Denmark. The results show that our framework often
obtains the ground truth optimal solution, and can outperform conventional
methods for route optimization, which do not leverage full predictive
distributions.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, 5 table
Tractable Pathfinding for the Stochastic On-Time Arrival Problem
We present a new and more efficient technique for computing the route that
maximizes the probability of on-time arrival in stochastic networks, also known
as the path-based stochastic on-time arrival (SOTA) problem. Our primary
contribution is a pathfinding algorithm that uses the solution to the
policy-based SOTA problem---which is of pseudo-polynomial-time complexity in
the time budget of the journey---as a search heuristic for the optimal path. In
particular, we show that this heuristic can be exceptionally efficient in
practice, effectively making it possible to solve the path-based SOTA problem
as quickly as the policy-based SOTA problem. Our secondary contribution is the
extension of policy-based preprocessing to path-based preprocessing for the
SOTA problem. In the process, we also introduce Arc-Potentials, a more
efficient generalization of Stochastic Arc-Flags that can be used for both
policy- and path-based SOTA. After developing the pathfinding and preprocessing
algorithms, we evaluate their performance on two different real-world networks.
To the best of our knowledge, these techniques provide the most efficient
computation strategy for the path-based SOTA problem for general probability
distributions, both with and without preprocessing.Comment: Submission accepted by the International Symposium on Experimental
Algorithms 2016 and published by Springer in the Lecture Notes in Computer
Science series on June 1, 2016. Includes typographical corrections and
modifications to pre-processing made after the initial submission to SODA'15
(July 7, 2014
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