3,267 research outputs found

    Quantifying Equity Risk Premia: Financial Economic Theory and High-Dimensional Statistical Methods

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    The overarching question of this dissertation is how to quantify the unobservable risk premium of a stock when its return distribution varies over time. The first chapter, titled “Theory-based versus machine learning-implied stock risk premia”, starts with a comparison of two competing strands of the literature. The approach advocated by Martin and Wagner (2019) relies on financial economic theory to derive a closed-form approximation of conditional risk premia using information embedded in the prices of European options. The other approach, exemplified by the study of Gu et al. (2020), draws on the flexibility of machine learning methods and vast amounts of historical data to determine the unknown functional form. The goal of this study is to determine which of the two approaches produces more accurate measurements of stock risk premia. In addition, we present a novel hybrid approach that employs machine learning to overcome the approximation errors induced by the theory-based approach. We find that our hybrid approach is competitive especially at longer investment horizons. The second chapter, titled “The uncertainty principle in asset pricing”, introduces a representation of the conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in which the betas and the equity premium are jointly characterized by the information embedded in option prices. A unique feature of our model is that its implied components represent valid measurements of their physical counterparts without the need for any further risk adjustment. Moreover, because the model’s time-varying parameters are directly observable, the model can be tested without any of the complications that typically arise from statistical estimation. One of the main empirical findings is that the well-known flat relationship between average predicted and realized excess returns of beta-sorted portfolios can be explained by the uncertainty governing market excess returns. In the third chapter, titled “Multi-task learning in cross-sectional regressions”, we challenge the way in which cross-sectional regressions are used to test factor models with time-varying loadings. More specifically, we extend the procedure by Fama and MacBeth (1973) by systematically selecting stock characteristics using a combination of l1- and l2-regularization, known as the multi-task Lasso, and addressing the bias that is induced by selection via repeated sample splitting. In the empirical part of this chapter, we apply our testing procedure to the option-implied CAPM from chapter two, and find that, while variants of the momentum effect lead to a rejection of the model, the implied beta is by far the most important predictor of cross-sectional return variation

    LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volume

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    LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volum

    Data- og ekspertdreven variabelseleksjon for prediktive modeller i helsevesenet : mot økt tolkbarhet i underbestemte maskinlæringsproblemer

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    Modern data acquisition techniques in healthcare generate large collections of data from multiple sources, such as novel diagnosis and treatment methodologies. Some concrete examples are electronic healthcare record systems, genomics, and medical images. This leads to situations with often unstructured, high-dimensional heterogeneous patient cohort data where classical statistical methods may not be sufficient for optimal utilization of the data and informed decision-making. Instead, investigating such data structures with modern machine learning techniques promises to improve the understanding of patient health issues and may provide a better platform for informed decision-making by clinicians. Key requirements for this purpose include (a) sufficiently accurate predictions and (b) model interpretability. Achieving both aspects in parallel is difficult, particularly for datasets with few patients, which are common in the healthcare domain. In such cases, machine learning models encounter mathematically underdetermined systems and may overfit easily on the training data. An important approach to overcome this issue is feature selection, i.e., determining a subset of informative features from the original set of features with respect to the target variable. While potentially raising the predictive performance, feature selection fosters model interpretability by identifying a low number of relevant model parameters to better understand the underlying biological processes that lead to health issues. Interpretability requires that feature selection is stable, i.e., small changes in the dataset do not lead to changes in the selected feature set. A concept to address instability is ensemble feature selection, i.e. the process of repeating the feature selection multiple times on subsets of samples of the original dataset and aggregating results in a meta-model. This thesis presents two approaches for ensemble feature selection, which are tailored towards high-dimensional data in healthcare: the Repeated Elastic Net Technique for feature selection (RENT) and the User-Guided Bayesian Framework for feature selection (UBayFS). While RENT is purely data-driven and builds upon elastic net regularized models, UBayFS is a general framework for ensembles with the capabilities to include expert knowledge in the feature selection process via prior weights and side constraints. A case study modeling the overall survival of cancer patients compares these novel feature selectors and demonstrates their potential in clinical practice. Beyond the selection of single features, UBayFS also allows for selecting whole feature groups (feature blocks) that were acquired from multiple data sources, as those mentioned above. Importance quantification of such feature blocks plays a key role in tracing information about the target variable back to the acquisition modalities. Such information on feature block importance may lead to positive effects on the use of human, technical, and financial resources if systematically integrated into the planning of patient treatment by excluding the acquisition of non-informative features. Since a generalization of feature importance measures to block importance is not trivial, this thesis also investigates and compares approaches for feature block importance rankings. This thesis demonstrates that high-dimensional datasets from multiple data sources in the medical domain can be successfully tackled by the presented approaches for feature selection. Experimental evaluations demonstrate favorable properties of both predictive performance, stability, as well as interpretability of results, which carries a high potential for better data-driven decision support in clinical practice.Moderne datainnsamlingsteknikker i helsevesenet genererer store datamengder fra flere kilder, som for eksempel nye diagnose- og behandlingsmetoder. Noen konkrete eksempler er elektroniske helsejournalsystemer, genomikk og medisinske bilder. Slike pasientkohortdata er ofte ustrukturerte, høydimensjonale og heterogene og hvor klassiske statistiske metoder ikke er tilstrekkelige for optimal utnyttelse av dataene og god informasjonsbasert beslutningstaking. Derfor kan det være lovende å analysere slike datastrukturer ved bruk av moderne maskinlæringsteknikker for å øke forståelsen av pasientenes helseproblemer og for å gi klinikerne en bedre plattform for informasjonsbasert beslutningstaking. Sentrale krav til dette formålet inkluderer (a) tilstrekkelig nøyaktige prediksjoner og (b) modelltolkbarhet. Å oppnå begge aspektene samtidig er vanskelig, spesielt for datasett med få pasienter, noe som er vanlig for data i helsevesenet. I slike tilfeller må maskinlæringsmodeller håndtere matematisk underbestemte systemer og dette kan lett føre til at modellene overtilpasses treningsdataene. Variabelseleksjon er en viktig tilnærming for å håndtere dette ved å identifisere en undergruppe av informative variabler med hensyn til responsvariablen. Samtidig som variabelseleksjonsmetoder kan lede til økt prediktiv ytelse, fremmes modelltolkbarhet ved å identifisere et lavt antall relevante modellparametere. Dette kan gi bedre forståelse av de underliggende biologiske prosessene som fører til helseproblemer. Tolkbarhet krever at variabelseleksjonen er stabil, dvs. at små endringer i datasettet ikke fører til endringer i hvilke variabler som velges. Et konsept for å adressere ustabilitet er ensemblevariableseleksjon, dvs. prosessen med å gjenta variabelseleksjon flere ganger på en delmengde av prøvene i det originale datasett og aggregere resultater i en metamodell. Denne avhandlingen presenterer to tilnærminger for ensemblevariabelseleksjon, som er skreddersydd for høydimensjonale data i helsevesenet: "Repeated Elastic Net Technique for feature selection" (RENT) og "User-Guided Bayesian Framework for feature selection" (UBayFS). Mens RENT er datadrevet og bygger på elastic net-regulariserte modeller, er UBayFS et generelt rammeverk for ensembler som muliggjør inkludering av ekspertkunnskap i variabelseleksjonsprosessen gjennom forhåndsbestemte vekter og sidebegrensninger. En case-studie som modellerer overlevelsen av kreftpasienter sammenligner disse nye variabelseleksjonsmetodene og demonstrerer deres potensiale i klinisk praksis. Utover valg av enkelte variabler gjør UBayFS det også mulig å velge blokker eller grupper av variabler som representerer de ulike datakildene som ble nevnt over. Kvantifisering av viktigheten av variabelgrupper spiller en nøkkelrolle for forståelsen av hvorvidt datakildene er viktige for responsvariablen. Tilgang til slik informasjon kan føre til at bruken av menneskelige, tekniske og økonomiske ressurser kan forbedres dersom informasjonen integreres systematisk i planleggingen av pasientbehandlingen. Slik kan man redusere innsamling av ikke-informative variabler. Siden generaliseringen av viktighet av variabelgrupper ikke er triviell, undersøkes og sammenlignes også tilnærminger for rangering av viktigheten til disse variabelgruppene. Denne avhandlingen viser at høydimensjonale datasett fra flere datakilder fra det medisinske domenet effektivt kan håndteres ved bruk av variabelseleksjonmetodene som er presentert i avhandlingen. Eksperimentene viser at disse kan ha positiv en effekt på både prediktiv ytelse, stabilitet og tolkbarhet av resultatene. Bruken av disse variabelseleksjonsmetodene bærer et stort potensiale for bedre datadrevet beslutningsstøtte i klinisk praksis

    Learning and Control of Dynamical Systems

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    Despite the remarkable success of machine learning in various domains in recent years, our understanding of its fundamental limitations remains incomplete. This knowledge gap poses a grand challenge when deploying machine learning methods in critical decision-making tasks, where incorrect decisions can have catastrophic consequences. To effectively utilize these learning-based methods in such contexts, it is crucial to explicitly characterize their performance. Over the years, significant research efforts have been dedicated to learning and control of dynamical systems where the underlying dynamics are unknown or only partially known a priori, and must be inferred from collected data. However, much of these classical results have focused on asymptotic guarantees, providing limited insights into the amount of data required to achieve desired control performance while satisfying operational constraints such as safety and stability, especially in the presence of statistical noise. In this thesis, we study the statistical complexity of learning and control of unknown dynamical systems. By utilizing recent advances in statistical learning theory, high-dimensional statistics, and control theoretic tools, we aim to establish a fundamental understanding of the number of samples required to achieve desired (i) accuracy in learning the unknown dynamics, (ii) performance in the control of the underlying system, and (iii) satisfaction of the operational constraints such as safety and stability. We provide finite-sample guarantees for these objectives and propose efficient learning and control algorithms that achieve the desired performance at these statistical limits in various dynamical systems. Our investigation covers a broad range of dynamical systems, starting from fully observable linear dynamical systems to partially observable linear dynamical systems, and ultimately, nonlinear systems. We deploy our learning and control algorithms in various adaptive control tasks in real-world control systems and demonstrate their strong empirical performance along with their learning, robustness, and stability guarantees. In particular, we implement one of our proposed methods, Fourier Adaptive Learning and Control (FALCON), on an experimental aerodynamic testbed under extreme turbulent flow dynamics in a wind tunnel. The results show that FALCON achieves state-of-the-art stabilization performance and consistently outperforms conventional and other learning-based methods by at least 37%, despite using 8 times less data. The superior performance of FALCON arises from its physically and theoretically accurate modeling of the underlying nonlinear turbulent dynamics, which yields rigorous finite-sample learning and performance guarantees. These findings underscore the importance of characterizing the statistical complexity of learning and control of unknown dynamical systems.</p

    Proceedings of SIRM 2023 - The 15th European Conference on Rotordynamics

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    It was our great honor and pleasure to host the SIRM Conference after 2003 and 2011 for the third time in Darmstadt. Rotordynamics covers a huge variety of different applications and challenges which are all in the scope of this conference. The conference was opened with a keynote lecture given by Rainer Nordmann, one of the three founders of SIRM “Schwingungen in rotierenden Maschinen”. In total 53 papers passed our strict review process and were presented. This impressively shows that rotordynamics is relevant as ever. These contributions cover a very wide spectrum of session topics: fluid bearings and seals; air foil bearings; magnetic bearings; rotor blade interaction; rotor fluid interactions; unbalance and balancing; vibrations in turbomachines; vibration control; instability; electrical machines; monitoring, identification and diagnosis; advanced numerical tools and nonlinearities as well as general rotordynamics. The international character of the conference has been significantly enhanced by the Scientific Board since the 14th SIRM resulting on one hand in an expanded Scientific Committee which meanwhile consists of 31 members from 13 different European countries and on the other hand in the new name “European Conference on Rotordynamics”. This new international profile has also been emphasized by participants of the 15th SIRM coming from 17 different countries out of three continents. We experienced a vital discussion and dialogue between industry and academia at the conference where roughly one third of the papers were presented by industry and two thirds by academia being an excellent basis to follow a bidirectional transfer what we call xchange at Technical University of Darmstadt. At this point we also want to give our special thanks to the eleven industry sponsors for their great support of the conference. On behalf of the Darmstadt Local Committee I welcome you to read the papers of the 15th SIRM giving you further insight into the topics and presentations

    Efficient Deep Learning for Real-time Classification of Astronomical Transients

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    A new golden age in astronomy is upon us, dominated by data. Large astronomical surveys are broadcasting unprecedented rates of information, demanding machine learning as a critical component in modern scientific pipelines to handle the deluge of data. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will raise the big-data bar for time- domain astronomy, with an expected 10 million alerts per-night, and generating many petabytes of data over the lifetime of the survey. Fast and efficient classification algorithms that can operate in real-time, yet robustly and accurately, are needed for time-critical events where additional resources can be sought for follow-up analyses. In order to handle such data, state-of-the-art deep learning architectures coupled with tools that leverage modern hardware accelerators are essential. The work contained in this thesis seeks to address the big-data challenges of LSST by proposing novel efficient deep learning architectures for multivariate time-series classification that can provide state-of-the-art classification of astronomical transients at a fraction of the computational costs of other deep learning approaches. This thesis introduces the depthwise-separable convolution and the notion of convolutional embeddings to the task of time-series classification for gains in classification performance that are achieved with far fewer model parameters than similar methods. It also introduces the attention mechanism to time-series classification that improves performance even further still, with significant improvement in computational efficiency, as well as further reduction in model size. Finally, this thesis pioneers the use of modern model compression techniques to the field of photometric classification for efficient deep learning deployment. These insights informed the final architecture which was deployed in a live production machine learning system, demonstrating the capability to operate efficiently and robustly in real-time, at LSST scale and beyond, ready for the new era of data intensive astronomy

    Advances and Applications of DSmT for Information Fusion. Collected Works, Volume 5

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    This fifth volume on Advances and Applications of DSmT for Information Fusion collects theoretical and applied contributions of researchers working in different fields of applications and in mathematics, and is available in open-access. The collected contributions of this volume have either been published or presented after disseminating the fourth volume in 2015 in international conferences, seminars, workshops and journals, or they are new. The contributions of each part of this volume are chronologically ordered. First Part of this book presents some theoretical advances on DSmT, dealing mainly with modified Proportional Conflict Redistribution Rules (PCR) of combination with degree of intersection, coarsening techniques, interval calculus for PCR thanks to set inversion via interval analysis (SIVIA), rough set classifiers, canonical decomposition of dichotomous belief functions, fast PCR fusion, fast inter-criteria analysis with PCR, and improved PCR5 and PCR6 rules preserving the (quasi-)neutrality of (quasi-)vacuous belief assignment in the fusion of sources of evidence with their Matlab codes. Because more applications of DSmT have emerged in the past years since the apparition of the fourth book of DSmT in 2015, the second part of this volume is about selected applications of DSmT mainly in building change detection, object recognition, quality of data association in tracking, perception in robotics, risk assessment for torrent protection and multi-criteria decision-making, multi-modal image fusion, coarsening techniques, recommender system, levee characterization and assessment, human heading perception, trust assessment, robotics, biometrics, failure detection, GPS systems, inter-criteria analysis, group decision, human activity recognition, storm prediction, data association for autonomous vehicles, identification of maritime vessels, fusion of support vector machines (SVM), Silx-Furtif RUST code library for information fusion including PCR rules, and network for ship classification. Finally, the third part presents interesting contributions related to belief functions in general published or presented along the years since 2015. These contributions are related with decision-making under uncertainty, belief approximations, probability transformations, new distances between belief functions, non-classical multi-criteria decision-making problems with belief functions, generalization of Bayes theorem, image processing, data association, entropy and cross-entropy measures, fuzzy evidence numbers, negator of belief mass, human activity recognition, information fusion for breast cancer therapy, imbalanced data classification, and hybrid techniques mixing deep learning with belief functions as well

    Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning for Engineering Design and Health Prognostics: A Tutorial

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    On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Toward this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. Two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines

    20th SC@RUG 2023 proceedings 2022-2023

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    Evaluating Architectural Safeguards for Uncertain AI Black-Box Components

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    Although tremendous progress has been made in Artificial Intelligence (AI), it entails new challenges. The growing complexity of learning tasks requires more complex AI components, which increasingly exhibit unreliable behaviour. In this book, we present a model-driven approach to model architectural safeguards for AI components and analyse their effect on the overall system reliability
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