31,695 research outputs found
Ecological non-linear state space model selection via adaptive particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (AdPMCMC)
We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that
is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state
space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model
parameters. We apply this novel methodology to five population growth models,
including models with strong and weak Allee effects, and test if it can
efficiently sample from the complex likelihood surface that is often associated
with these models. Utilising real and also synthetically generated data sets we
examine the extent to which observation noise and process error may frustrate
efforts to choose between these models. Our novel algorithm involves an
Adaptive Metropolis proposal combined with an SIR Particle MCMC algorithm
(AdPMCMC). We show that the AdPMCMC algorithm samples complex, high-dimensional
spaces efficiently, and is therefore superior to standard Gibbs or Metropolis
Hastings algorithms that are known to converge very slowly when applied to the
non-linear state space ecological models considered in this paper.
Additionally, we show how the AdPMCMC algorithm can be used to recursively
estimate the Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao Lower Bound of Tichavsk\'y (1998). We derive
expressions for these Cram\'er-Rao Bounds and estimate them for the models
considered. Our results demonstrate a number of important features of common
population growth models, most notably their multi-modal posterior surfaces and
dependence between the static and dynamic parameters. We conclude by sampling
from the posterior distribution of each of the models, and use Bayes factors to
highlight how observation noise significantly diminishes our ability to select
among some of the models, particularly those that are designed to reproduce an
Allee effect
Orthogonal parallel MCMC methods for sampling and optimization
Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and
optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A
well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms.
In order to foster better exploration of the state space, specially in
high-dimensional applications, several schemes employing multiple parallel MCMC
chains have been recently introduced. In this work, we describe a novel
parallel interacting MCMC scheme, called {\it orthogonal MCMC} (O-MCMC), where
a set of "vertical" parallel MCMC chains share information using some
"horizontal" MCMC techniques working on the entire population of current
states. More specifically, the vertical chains are led by random-walk
proposals, whereas the horizontal MCMC techniques employ independent proposals,
thus allowing an efficient combination of global exploration and local
approximation. The interaction is contained in these horizontal iterations.
Within the analysis of different implementations of O-MCMC, novel schemes in
order to reduce the overall computational cost of parallel multiple try
Metropolis (MTM) chains are also presented. Furthermore, a modified version of
O-MCMC for optimization is provided by considering parallel simulated annealing
(SA) algorithms. Numerical results show the advantages of the proposed sampling
scheme in terms of efficiency in the estimation, as well as robustness in terms
of independence with respect to initial values and the choice of the
parameters
Seen and unseen tidal caustics in the Andromeda galaxy
Indirect detection of high-energy particles from dark matter interactions is
a promising avenue for learning more about dark matter, but is hampered by the
frequent coincidence of high-energy astrophysical sources of such particles
with putative high-density regions of dark matter. We calculate the boost
factor and gamma-ray flux from dark matter associated with two shell-like
caustics of luminous tidal debris recently discovered around the Andromeda
galaxy, under the assumption that dark matter is its own supersymmetric
antiparticle. These shell features could be a good candidate for indirect
detection of dark matter via gamma rays because they are located far from the
primary confusion sources at the galaxy's center, and because the shapes of the
shells indicate that most of the mass has piled up near apocenter. Using a
numerical estimator specifically calibrated to estimate densities in N-body
representations with sharp features and a previously determined N-body model of
the shells, we find that the largest boost factors do occur in the shells but
are only a few percent. We also find that the gamma-ray flux is an order of
magnitude too low to be detected with Fermi for likely dark matter parameters,
and about 2 orders of magnitude less than the signal that would have come from
the dwarf galaxy that produces the shells in the N-body model. We further show
that the radial density profiles and relative radial spacing of the shells, in
either dark or luminous matter, is relatively insensitive to the details of the
potential of the host galaxy but depends in a predictable way on the velocity
dispersion of the progenitor galaxy.Comment: ApJ accepte
Unbiased and Consistent Nested Sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo
We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods called Nested
Sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo (NS-SMC), which reframes the Nested
Sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo
techniques. This new framework allows convergence results to be obtained in the
setting when Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to produce new samples. An
additional benefit is that marginal likelihood estimates are unbiased. In
contrast to NS, the analysis of NS-SMC does not require the (unrealistic)
assumption that the simulated samples be independent. As the original NS
algorithm is a special case of NS-SMC, this provides insights as to why NS
seems to produce accurate estimates despite a typical violation of its
assumptions. For applications of NS-SMC, we give advice on tuning MCMC kernels
in an automated manner via a preliminary pilot run, and present a new method
for appropriately choosing the number of MCMC repeats at each iteration.
Finally, a numerical study is conducted where the performance of NS-SMC and
temperature-annealed SMC is compared on several challenging and realistic
problems. MATLAB code for our experiments is made available at
https://github.com/LeahPrice/SMC-NS .Comment: 45 pages, some minor typographical errors fixed since last versio
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