An agent-based fuzzy cognitive map approach to the strategic marketing planning for industrial firms

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Industrial Marketing Management. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Industrial marketing planning is a typical example of an unstructured decision making problem due to the large number of variables to consider and the uncertainty imposed on those variables. Although abundant studies identified barriers and facilitators of effective industrial marketing planning in practice, the literature still lacks practical tools and methods that marketing managers can use for the task. This paper applies fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to industrial marketing planning. In particular, agent based inference method is proposed to overcome dynamic relationships, time lags, and reusability issues of FCM evaluation. MACOM simulator also is developed to help marketing managers conduct what-if scenarios to see the impacts of possible changes on the variables defined in an FCM that represents industrial marketing planning problem. The simulator is applied to an industrial marketing planning problem for a global software service company in South Korea. This study has practical implication as it supports marketing managers for industrial marketing planning that has large number of variables and their cause–effect relationships. It also contributes to FCM theory by providing an agent based method for the inference of FCM. Finally, MACOM also provides academics in the industrial marketing management discipline with a tool for developing and pre-verifying a conceptual model based on qualitative knowledge of marketing practitioners.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Intelligent Association Exploration and Exploitation of Fuzzy Agents in Ambient Intelligent Environments

This paper presents a novel fuzzy-based intelligent architecture that aims to find relevant and important associations between embedded-agent based services that form Ambient Intelligent Environments (AIEs). The embedded agents are used in two ways; first they monitor the inhabitants of the AIE, learning their behaviours in an online, non-intrusive and life-long fashion with the aim of pre-emptively setting the environment to the users preferred state. Secondly, they evaluate the relevance and significance of the associations to various services with the aim of eliminating redundant associations in order to minimize the agent computational latency within the AIE. The embedded agents employ fuzzy-logic due to its robustness to the uncertainties, noise and imprecision encountered in AIEs. We describe unique real world experiments that were conducted in the Essex intelligent Dormitory (iDorm) to evaluate and validate the significance of the proposed architecture and methods

ART Neural Networks: Distributed Coding and ARTMAP Applications

ART (Adaptive Resonance Theory) neural networks for fast, stable learning and prediction have been applied in a variety of areas. Applications include airplane design and manufacturing, automatic target recognition, financial forecasting, machine tool monitoring, digital circuit design, chemical analysis, and robot vision. Supervised ART architectures, called ARTMAP systems, feature internal control mechanisms that create stable recognition categories of optimal size by maximizing code compression while minimizing predictive error in an on-line setting. Special-purpose requirements of various application domains have led to a number of ARTMAP variants, including fuzzy ARTMAP, ART-EMAP, Gaussian ARTMAP, and distributed ARTMAP. ARTMAP has been used for a variety of applications, including computer-assisted medical diagnosis. Medical databases present many of the challenges found in general information management settings where speed, efficiency, ease of use, and accuracy are at a premium. A direct goal of improved computer-assisted medicine is to help deliver quality emergency care in situations that may be less than ideal. Working with these problems has stimulated a number of ART architecture developments, including ARTMAP-IC [1]. This paper describes a recent collaborative effort, using a new cardiac care database for system development, has brought together medical statisticians and clinicians at the New England Medical Center with researchers developing expert systems and neural networks, in order to create a hybrid method for medical diagnosis. The paper also considers new neural network architectures, including distributed ART {dART), a real-time model of parallel distributed pattern learning that permits fast as well as slow adaptation, without catastrophic forgetting. Local synaptic computations in the dART model quantitatively match the paradoxical phenomenon of Markram-Tsodyks [2] redistribution of synaptic efficacy, as a consequence of global system hypotheses.Office of Naval Research (N00014-95-1-0409, N00014-95-1-0657

Adaptive Resonance Theory

SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency (Hewlett-Packard Company, subcontract under DARPA prime contract HR0011-09-3-0001, and HRL Laboratories LLC, subcontract #801881-BS under DARPA prime contract HR0011-09-C-0001); CELEST, an NSF Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378

ART Neural Networks for Remote Sensing Image Analysis

ART and ARTMAP neural networks for adaptive recognition and prediction have been applied to a variety of problems, including automatic mapping from remote sensing satellite measurements, parts design retrieval at the Boeing Company, medical database prediction, and robot vision. This paper features a self-contained introduction to ART and ARTMAP dynamics. An application of these networks to image processing is illustrated by means of a remote sensing example. The basic ART and ARTMAP networks feature winner-take-all (WTA) competitive coding, which groups inputs into discrete recognition categories. WTA coding in these networks enables fast learning, which allows the network to encode important rare cases but which may lead to inefficient category proliferation with noisy training inputs. This problem is partially solved by ART-EMAP, which use WTA coding for learning but distributed category representations for test-set prediction. Recently developed ART models (dART and dARTMAP) retain stable coding, recognition, and prediction, but allow arbitrarily distributed category representation during learning as well as performance

Advancing the state of the art in the modelling and simulation of information systems evaluation

It is widely accepted that Information Systems Evaluation (ISE) is a powerful and useful technique that can be used to assess IT/IS investments in an a-priori or a-posteriori sense. Traditional approaches to ISE have tended to centre upon financial and management accounting frameworks, seeking to reconcile tangible and intangible costs, benefits, risks and value factors. Such techniques, however, do not provide the IS researcher or practitioner with further insight or appreciation of any inherent and implicit inter-relationships, in the investment justification process. Thus, this paper outlines and discusses via a taxonomy and resulting classification, alternative and complementary approaches that can be applied to ISE from the fields of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Operational Research (OR) and Management Science (MS). The paper subsequently concludes that such approaches can be potentially used by researchers and practitioners in the field, as a basis for carrying out further research in the field of applied ISE

Buffered Reset Leads to Improved Compression in Fuzzy ARTMAP Classification of Radar Range Profiles

Fuzzy ARTMAP has to date been applied to a variety of automatic target recognition tasks, including radar range profile classification. In simulations of this task, it has demonstrated significant compression compared to k-nearest-neighbor classifiers. During supervised learning, match tracking search allocates memory based on the degree of similarity between newly encountered and previously encountered inputs, regardless of their prior predictive success. Here we invesetigate techniques that buffer reset based on a category's previous predictive success and thereby substantially improve the compression achieved with minimal loss of accuracy.Office of Naval Research (N00014-95-1-0657, N00014-95-1-0409, N00014-96-1-0659

Participatory Ecosystem Management Planning at Tuzla Lake (Turkey) Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping

A participatory environmental management plan was prepared for Tuzla Lake, Turkey. Fuzzy cognitive mapping approach was used to obtain stakeholder views and desires. Cognitive maps were prepared with 44 stakeholders (villagers, local decisionmakers, government and non-government organization (NGO) officials). Graph theory indices, statistical methods and "What-if" simulations were used in the analysis. The most mentioned variables were livelihood, agriculture and animal husbandry. The most central variable was agriculture for local people (villagers and local decisionmakers) and education for NGO & Government officials. All the stakeholders agreed that livelihood was increased by agriculture and animal husbandry while hunting decreased birds and wildlife. Although local people focused on their livelihoods, NGO & Government officials focused on conservation of Tuzla Lake and education of local people. Stakeholders indicated that the conservation status of Tuzla Lake should be strengthened to conserve the ecosystem and biodiversity, which may be negatively impacted by agriculture and irrigation. Stakeholders mentioned salt extraction, ecotourism, and carpet weaving as alternative economic activities. Cognitive mapping provided an effective tool for the inclusion of the stakeholders' views and ensured initial participation in environmental planning and policy making.Comment: 43 pages, 4 figure

The hippocampus and cerebellum in adaptively timed learning, recognition, and movement

The concepts of declarative memory and procedural memory have been used to distinguish two basic types of learning. A neural network model suggests how such memory processes work together as recognition learning, reinforcement learning, and sensory-motor learning take place during adaptive behaviors. To coordinate these processes, the hippocampal formation and cerebellum each contain circuits that learn to adaptively time their outputs. Within the model, hippocampal timing helps to maintain attention on motivationally salient goal objects during variable task-related delays, and cerebellar timing controls the release of conditioned responses. This property is part of the model's description of how cognitive-emotional interactions focus attention on motivationally valued cues, and how this process breaks down due to hippocampal ablation. The model suggests that the hippocampal mechanisms that help to rapidly draw attention to salient cues could prematurely release motor commands were not the release of these commands adaptively timed by the cerebellum. The model hippocampal system modulates cortical recognition learning without actually encoding the representational information that the cortex encodes. These properties avoid the difficulties faced by several models that propose a direct hippocampal role in recognition learning. Learning within the model hippocampal system controls adaptive timing and spatial orientation. Model properties hereby clarify how hippocampal ablations cause amnesic symptoms and difficulties with tasks which combine task delays, novelty detection, and attention towards goal objects amid distractions. When these model recognition, reinforcement, sensory-motor, and timing processes work together, they suggest how the brain can accomplish conditioning of multiple sensory events to delayed rewards, as during serial compound conditioning.Air Force Office of Scientific Research (F49620-92-J-0225, F49620-86-C-0037, 90-0128); Advanced Research Projects Agency (ONR N00014-92-J-4015); Office of Naval Research (N00014-91-J-4100, N00014-92-J-1309, N00014-92-J-1904); National Institute of Mental Health (MH-42900