Differential adaptation strategies to climate change in African cropland by agro-ecological zones

This paper quantifies how African farmers have adapted their crop and irrigation decisions to their farm's current agro-ecological zone. The results indicate that farmers carefully consider the climate and other conditions of their farm when making these choices. These results are then used to forecast how farmers might change their irrigation and crop choice decisions if climate changes. The model predicts African farmers would adopt irrigation more often under a very hot and dry climate scenario but less often with a mild and wet scenario. However, farms in the deserts, lowland humid forest, or mid elevation humid forest would reduce irrigation even in the very hot and dry climate scenario. Area under fruits and vegetables would increase Africa-wide with the very hot and dry climate scenario, except in the lowland semi-arid agro-ecological zone. Millet would increase overall under the mild and wet scenario, but decline substantially in the lowland dry savannah and lowland semi-arid agro-ecological zones. Maize would be chosen less often across all the agro-ecological zones under both climate scenarios. Wheat would decrease across Africa. The authors recommend that care must be taken to match adaptations to local conditions because the optimal adaptation would depend on the agro-ecological zone and the climate scenario.Crops&Crop Management Systems,Climate Change,Food&Beverage Industry,Renewable Energy,Rural Poverty Reduction

Assessing the Potential of Intra-specific Biodiversity towards Adaptation of Irrigated and Rain-fed Italian Production Systems to Future Climate

AbstractThe study addresses the biophysical dimension of adaptation. It illustrates and applies a framework to evaluate options for adaptation by identifying cultivars optimally adapted to expected climate conditions, building on existing crops intra-specific biodiversity. The aim is to reduce the vulnerability of current production systems without altering the pattern of current species and cultivation systems.Adaptability is assessed through a three-step approach that involves: 1) evaluation of indicators of expected thermal and hydrological conditions within the specific landscape and production system; 2) determination, for a set of cultivars, of cultivar- specific thermal and hydrological requirements to attain the desirable yield; 3) identification, as options for adaptation, of the cultivars for which expected climate conditions match the climatic requirements. The approach relies on a process-based simulation model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system for the calculation of hydrological indicators. Thermal indicators are derived by means of phenological models. Empirical functions of cultivars yield response to water availability are used to determine cultivar-specific hydrological requirements, whereas cultivars thermal requirements are estimated through phenological observations.In a future climate case (2021-2050) three case-studies are analyzed: 1) a system dominated by rain-fed crops (olive, winegrapes, durum wheat) in a hilly area of southern Italy; 2) irrigated fruit crops (peach, pear) in the Po Valley; 3) maize and tomato crop in an irrigated plain of southern Italy.Cultivars adapted to the future climate have been identified for rain-fed crops (e.g. 5 olive cvs). For irrigated crops we have evaluated adaptability for optimal and deficit irrigation schedules, accounting for site-specific soils hydrological properties. Options for adaptations have been identified as a combination of cultivars, soils and irrigation schedules (e.g 2 tomato cvs and 3 maize hybrids have been identified as options for adaptation at scarce water availability). Moreover, in the case of fruit crops, accounting for phenological changes highlighted the impact on irrigation water requirements of the interaction between phenology and the intra-annual distribution of precipitation

Perception of climate change and coping strategies among smallholder irrigators in Zimbabwe

IntroductionAcross sub-Sahara Africa, governments and international aid agencies are making huge investments in smallholder irrigation schemes to enhance food security, climate resilience and economic transformation in rain-fed farming systems. Unfortunately, a majority of the smallholder irrigation schemes have performed dismally on these fronts. Climate change is a major exacerbating factor to existing challenges resulting in the poor performance of the schemes. Hence, it is crucial to understand smallholder irrigators' perceptions of climate change and current adaptation strategies to co-design appropriate and acceptable adaptation strategies to address water stress in the schemes. This area had received less significant research attention. This study aims to determine the perception of climate change and coping strategies in smallholder schemes.MethodsA mixed-method research strategy was used to collect data from 317 irrigation scheme farmers in three schemes (Exchange, Insukamini, and Ruchanyu) in Midlands Province. A binary logistic regression (BLR) method was used for data analysis.ResultsThe results suggest that scheme farmers have noticed changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. Results obtained from the model show that climate change perception was mainly influenced by age, gender, location, irrigation experience, and plot size. Farmers perceived that climatic change has resulted in decreased irrigation water availability, thus leading to poor yields. This study also shows that the main adaptation strategies to water stress include improving soil moisture conservation, construction of small-scale reservoirs, water charging and trade, setting clear water use priorities, and adoption of climate-resilient and short-season crop varieties. Perception of high temperatures, long dry periods, late rainfall, increase in the frequency of drought, shortening of cold season, and shortening of rain season influence adaptation strategies adopted by scheme farmers.ConclusionThis study offered useful data for policymakers and irrigation developers to develop appropriate policies and programs to improve the sustainability of schemes given current and projected water stress in Zimbabwe and sub-Sahara Africa in general

Climate change, agriculture and Fairtrade: identifying the challenges and opportunities

This paper presents the findings of a study commissioned by the UK's Fairtrade Foundation on the implications of climate change for agricultural producers in Fairtrade value chains

Technologies for climate change adaptation: agricultural sector

This Guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. A set of twenty two adaptation technologies are showcased that are primarily based on the principals of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented with important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required to make adaptation function. The technologies cover monitoring and forecasting the climate, sustainable water use and management, soil management, sustainable crop management, seed conservation, sustainable forest management and sustainable livestock management. Technologies that tend to homogenize the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in conditions of environmental stress that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and indeed promote, diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. In this sense, the twenty two technologies showcased in this Guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while at the same time providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. Agro-ecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agricultural sector. The Guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature review of key publications, journal articles, and e-platforms, and by drawing on documented experiences sourced from a range of organizations working on projects and programmes concerned with climate change adaptation technologies in the agricultural sector. Its geographic scope is focused on developing countries where high levels of poverty, agricultural production, climate variability and biological diversity currently intersect. Key concepts around climate change adaptation are not universally agreed. It is therefore important to understand local contexts – especially social and cultural norms - when working with national and sub-national stakeholders to make informed decisions about appropriate technology options. Thus, decision-making processes should be participative, facilitated, and consensus-building oriented and should be based on the following key guiding principles: increasing awareness and knowledge, strengthening institutions, protecting natural resources, providing financial assistance and developing context-specific strategies. For decision-making the Community–Based Adaptation framework is proposed for creating inclusive governance that engages a range of stakeholders directly with local or district government and national coordinating bodies, and facilitates participatory planning, monitoring and implementation of adaptation activities. Seven criteria are suggested for the prioritization of adaptation technologies: (i) The extent to which the technology maintains or strengthens biological diversity and is environmentally sustainable; (ii) The extent to which the technology facilitates access to information systems and awareness of climate change information; (iii) Whether the technology support water, carbon and nutrient cycles and enables stable and/or increased productivity; (iv) Income-generating potential, cost-benefit analysis and contribution to improved equity; (v) Respect for cultural diversity and facilitation of inter-cultural exchange; (vi) Potential for integration into regional and national policies and can be scaled-up; (vii) The extent to which the technology builds formal and information institutions and social networks. Finally, recommendations are set out for practitioners and policy makers: • There is an urgent need for improved climate modelling and forecasting which can provide a basis for informed decision-making and the implementation of adaptation strategies. This should include traditional knowledge. • Information is also required to better understand the behaviour of plants, animals, pests and diseases as they react to climate change. • Potential changes in economic and social systems in the future under different climate scenarios should also be investigated so that the implications of adaptation strategy and planning choices are better understood. • It is important to secure effective flows of information through appropriate dissemination channels. This is vital for building adaptive capacity and decision-making processes. • Improved analysis of adaptation technologies is required to show how they can contribute to building adaptive capacity and resilience in the agricultural sector. This information needs to be compiled and disseminated for a range of stakeholders from local to national level. • Relationships between policy makers, researchers and communities should be built so that technologies and planning processes are developed in partnership, responding to producers’ needs and integrating their knowledge

Invisible water, visible impact: How unsustainable groundwater use challenges sustainability of Indian agriculture under climate change

India is one of the world’s largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India’s agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people. Groundwater overexploitation has led to drastic declines in groundwater levels, threatening to push this vital resource out of reach for millions of small-scale farmers who are the backbone of India’s food security. Historically, losing access to groundwater has decreased agricultural production and increased poverty. We take a multidisciplinary approach to assess climate change challenges facing India’s agricultural system, and to assess the effectiveness of large-scale water infrastructure projects designed to meet these challenges. We find that even in areas that experience climate change induced precipitation increases, expansion of irrigated agriculture will require increasing amounts of unsustainable groundwater. The large proposed national river linking project has limited capacity to alleviate groundwater stress. Thus, without intervention, poverty and food insecurity in rural India is likely to worsen

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes

This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates