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Essays on Cities and Climate Change
This dissertation investigates the financial health of municipalities in the United States, their margins of response to fiscal shocks, and their exposure and response to climate risk stemming from hurricanes.
In Chapter 1, we construct a novel data set on the fiscal position of municipalities in the United States and document a secular decline in their financial health. Our data combines financial data from the Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports (ACFRs) of municipalities along with Census data of their revenue and expenditure cash flows. We find that a large share of municipalities operate with a negative net position---akin to a negative book equity position in the corporate context. We find that most of the decline originates from the accumulation of legacy obligations, i.e., pensions and other post-employment benefits (OPEBs); this is recognized by municipal bond markets through higher credit spreads. While accounting values from the ACFRs are informative, they are based on book valuations which potentially convey limited information about the economic value of assets and liabilities. Thus, we turn to the market valuation of local governments' equity by estimating an SDF that matches the valuation of a wide range of assets in the economy to prices future tax and expenditure claims. Using market prices for tax and expenditure claims, and market valuations of liability positions we find that the market values of equity are highly correlated with the book values. The negative equity position---in terms of book and market values---for some local governments suggests the presence of implicit insurance by the state and federal governments.
The deteriorating fiscal position of municipalities across the United States raises questions about fiscal adjustment mechanisms municipalities have at their disposal and the general equilibrium effects of any adjustment taken. In Chapter 2, we utilize quasi-experimental variation in the year of property tax assessments in the state of Connecticut to provide causal evidence of the fiscal adjustment following a large decline in property values after the Great Financial Crisis. We find that local governments adjust tax rates to maintain stable tax revenues; there is no change in public employment levels and limited adjustments of public services. Our micro data on people's location further allows us to causally estimate the migration elasticity to a change in property tax rates. We find evidence of inter-state migration in response to an increase in property tax rates; and no statistically significant response of intra-state migration. Detailed property and location choice data reveal the elasticity of migration with regard to the property tax bill. An increase in the property tax bill by ten percent leads to an average increase in the migration propensity by about 1.5%.
Finally, in Chapter 3, I investigate the investment component of local economic growth in municipalities after hurricanes. Using hand collected and web-scraped statutory property tax rate data in the U.S., I find that municipalities respond to hurricane impact by raising tax rates. I find the hike in tax rates is persistent for 3-4 years after hurricane impact. The response is four times larger for major hurricanes compared to minor hurricanes. However, the increase in tax rates is not expected to be large enough to cause significant out-migration after the average hurricane. I supplement these findings with a novel data set of firm facility-level hurricane impact. I find that firms initially decrease investment in the quarter following hurricane impact and increase it in the final quarters of the second year after impact. Taken together, this chapter presents a novel set of stylized facts on government and firm mitigation investment response to hurricane disasters. In particular, the precarious fiscal health of municipalities coupled with increasing costs of mitigating and managing climate risk poses serious questions about optimal policy in assisting local governments vulnerable to climate change
2023-2024 Boise State University Undergraduate Catalog
This catalog is primarily for and directed at students. However, it serves many audiences, such as high school counselors, academic advisors, and the public. In this catalog you will find an overview of Boise State University and information on admission, registration, grades, tuition and fees, financial aid, housing, student services, and other important policies and procedures. However, most of this catalog is devoted to describing the various programs and courses offered at Boise State
The ageing Caribbean: 20 years of the Madrid Plan of Action
This report assess the situation of older persons and reviews the actions taken in Caribbean countries and territories, particularly over the past five years, to implement the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing and related regional agreements. It contributes to the global and regional reviews of the Plan of Action, 20 years on from its adoption in 2002, and includes recommendations to further address population ageing and the rights of older persons in the Caribbean.Abstract .-- Introduction .-- I. Ageing, economic security and public policy .-- II. Ageing, health and care .-- III. Enabling and supportive environments .-- IV. Conclusions and key recommendations
Minimum income support systems as elements of crisis resilience in Europe: Final Report
Mindestsicherungssysteme dienen in den meisten entwickelten Wohlfahrtsstaaten als Sicherheitsnetz letzter Instanz. Dementsprechend spielen sie gerade in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten eine besondere Rolle. Inwieweit Mindestsicherungssysteme in Zeiten der Krise beansprucht werden, hängt auch von der Ausprägung vorgelagerter Sozialschutzsysteme ab. Diese Studie untersucht die Bedeutung von Systemen der Mindestsicherung sowie vorgelagerter Systeme wie Arbeitslosenversicherung, Kurzarbeit und arbeitsrechtlichem Bestandsschutz für die Krisenfestigkeit in Europa. Im Kontext der Finanzkrise von 2008/2009 und der Corona-Krise wird die Fähigkeit sozialpolitischer Maßnahmen untersucht, Armut und Einkommensverluste einzudämmen und gesellschaftliche Ausgrenzung zu vermeiden. Die Studie setzt dabei auf quantitative und qualitative Methoden, etwa multivariate Analysen, Mikrosimulationsmethoden sowie eingehende Fallstudien der Länder Dänemark, Frankreich, Irland, Polen und Spanien, die für unterschiedliche Typen von Wohlfahrtsstaaten stehen.The aim of this study is to analyse the role of social policies in different European welfare states regarding minimum income protection and active inclusion. The core focus lies on crisis resilience, i.e. the capacity of social policy arrangements to contain poverty and inequality and avoid exclusion before, during and after periods of economic shocks. To achieve this goal, the study expands its analytical focus to include other tiers of social protection, in particular upstream systems such as unemployment insurance, job retention and employment protection, as they play an additional and potentially prominent role in providing income and job protection in situations of crisis. A mixed-method approach is used that combines quantitative and qualitative research, such as descriptive and multivariate quantitative analyses, microsimulation methods and in-depth case studies. The study finds consistent differences in terms of crisis resilience across countries and welfare state types. In general, Nordic and Continental European welfare states with strong upstream systems and minimum income support (MIS) show better outcomes in core socio-economic outcomes such as poverty and exclusion risks. However, labour market integration shows some dualisms in Continental Europe. The study shows that MIS holds particular importance if there are gaps in upstream systems or cases of severe and lasting crises
Command and Persuade
Why, when we have been largely socialized into good behavior, are there more laws that govern our behavior than ever before? Levels of violent crime have been in a steady decline for centuries—for millennia, even. Over the past five hundred years, homicide rates have decreased a hundred-fold. We live in a time that is more orderly and peaceful than ever before in human history. Why, then, does fear of crime dominate modern politics? Why, when we have been largely socialized into good behavior, are there more laws that govern our behavior than ever before? In Command and Persuade, Peter Baldwin examines the evolution of the state's role in crime and punishment over three thousand years. Baldwin explains that the involvement of the state in law enforcement and crime prevention is relatively recent. In ancient Greece, those struck by lightning were assumed to have been punished by Zeus. In the Hebrew Bible, God was judge, jury, and prosecutor when Cain killed Abel. As the state's power as lawgiver grew, more laws governed behavior than ever before; the sum total of prohibited behavior has grown continuously. At the same time, as family, community, and church exerted their influences, we have become better behaved and more law-abiding. Even as the state stands as the socializer of last resort, it also defines through law the terrain on which we are schooled into acceptable behavior. This title is also available in an Open Access edition
Eesti pensionisüsteemi reformide mõju pensionide ebavõrdsusele – mikrosimulatsiooni ja tüüpilise agendi mudelite põhine analüüs
Pärast taasiseseisvumist oli Eestis kuni 2000. a-ni pensionisüsteem, kus pensioniõigusi teeniti vastavalt staažile. 2002. a-l jõustus kogumispensioni skeem, ent kuivõrd sellega liitumine oli vanematele vanuserühmadele vabatahtlik, avaldub selle mõju pensionide jaotusele täiel määral alles aastakümnete pärast. Sama puudutab ka riikliku pensioni töötasuga seotud osakut, mis rakendus 2000. a-l. Neil põhjustel on pensionide ebavõrdsus olnud Eestis seni suhteliselt madal, ehkki tasapisi kasvav.
Doktoritöö keskmes on pensionisüsteemi reformide mõju pensionide ebavõrdsusele tulevikus. Sel eesmärgil on välja töötatud mikrosimulatsiooni mudel, mis võimaldab simuleerida pensionide arenguid kogurahvastikus aastani 2100. Viimastel kümnenditel on pensionireformide oluliseks väliseks tõuketeguriks olnud rahvastiku vananemine. Rahvastikumuutusega kohanemiseks on tõstetud pensioniiga ja ergutatud pensioniks säästmist. Tulevasi reforme ajendab tegema mh ka töövormide muutumine ja töö globaliseerumine.
Simulatsioonarvutuste järgi kasvab kogupensionide (riiklik pension ja kogumispensionid kokku) ebavõrdsus Eestis 2050. a-ni ja seejärel hakkab vähenema. Samas jääb tulevikus pensionide ebavõrdsus 2,5 korda madalamaks kui palkadel. Kogupensioni ebavõrdsust vähendavad oluliselt riikliku pensioni tugevad ümberjaotusmehhanismid, ent palkade ebavõrdsuse ülekandumist pensioniikka aitab vähendada ka kogumispension. Kogupensioni brutoasendusmäär langeks 2060. aastateks kuni 30%-ni riigi keskmisest palgast, hakates seejärel tõusma ja jõudes ligi 40%-ni aastaks 2100. Asendusmäära aitab suurendada riikliku pensionikindlustuse eelarve ülejäägi jagamine olemasolevate pensionäride vahel ning kogumispensionide rolli kasv. Jagades pensionärid pensioni suuruse järgi kümnesse gruppi, siis riiklike pensionide erinevused muutuks aastaks 2100 üsna väikseks – 2. detsiili ja 10. detsiili keskmine asendusmäär Eesti keskmisesse palka erineb vaid 5% võrra (26% vs 31%). Kui võrrelda samade detsiilide kogupensione, siis on erinevus üle 30 protsendipunkti (32% vs 65%). Pensioni aitab oluliselt suurendada kohustuslik kogumispension ja eriti vabatahtlik kogumispension.After regaining independence, Estonia had until 2000 a pension system where pension rights were earned according to the length of service. As a result, pension inequalities have been relatively low. In 2002 a funded pension scheme was introduced, but as joining the scheme was optional for older workers it will take several decades to achieve its full effect on pension distributions. The same applies to the earnings-related unit of the state pension introduced in
2000. For these reasons pension inequalities in Estonia have been low, albeit gradually increasing.
The focus of this thesis is on the effects of pension reforms on the future pension inequalities. A microsimulation model has been developed for this purpose, which can simulate pensions for the total population up to 2100. In the last decades, pension reforms have been triggered mainly by the aging of population. To tackle the challenges of aging, pension age has been increased and pension savings encouraged. Future reforms will also be driven by changing forms of work and the globalization of work.
According to simulations, the inequality of the total pensions (state and funded pensions in total) will increase in Estonia until 2050 and then start to decrease. Yet pension inequality in the future is 2.5 times lower than inequality of wages. Pension inequalities are significantly reduced by the strong redistribution mechanisms built into the state pension scheme. However, the funded schemes also help to reduce the transfer of wage inequalities into pension age.
By the 2060s, the gross replacement rate of total pensions (state and funded pensions) will fall to 30% of the national average wage, and will increase thereafter, reaching 40% by 2100. The replacement rate will be boosted by the surplus of the state pension budget, which can be shared between existing retirees, as well as by the growing role of funded pensions. When dividing retirees into ten groups according to their pension size, the state pensions would notably be quite similar across the income scale in 2100 – the average replacement rate of pensions to the national average wage of the 2nd decile and 10th decile would vary by only 5 percentage points (26% vs 31%). If comparing the total pension (state and funded pensions) of the same deciles, the difference is over 30 percentage points (32% vs 65%). The compulsory funded scheme and, in particular, the voluntary funded scheme will contribute significantly to the increase of pensions.https://www.ester.ee/record=b549239
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