70,952 research outputs found
Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks
Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001
Efficient Localization of Discontinuities in Complex Computational Simulations
Surrogate models for computational simulations are input-output
approximations that allow computationally intensive analyses, such as
uncertainty propagation and inference, to be performed efficiently. When a
simulation output does not depend smoothly on its inputs, the error and
convergence rate of many approximation methods deteriorate substantially. This
paper details a method for efficiently localizing discontinuities in the input
parameter domain, so that the model output can be approximated as a piecewise
smooth function. The approach comprises an initialization phase, which uses
polynomial annihilation to assign function values to different regions and thus
seed an automated labeling procedure, followed by a refinement phase that
adaptively updates a kernel support vector machine representation of the
separating surface via active learning. The overall approach avoids structured
grids and exploits any available simplicity in the geometry of the separating
surface, thus reducing the number of model evaluations required to localize the
discontinuity. The method is illustrated on examples of up to eleven
dimensions, including algebraic models and ODE/PDE systems, and demonstrates
improved scaling and efficiency over other discontinuity localization
approaches
Statistical Learning Theory for Location Fingerprinting in Wireless LANs
In this paper, techniques and algorithms developed in the framework of statistical learning theory are analyzed and applied to the problem of determining the location of a wireless device by measuring the signal strengths from a set of access points (location fingerprinting). Statistical Learning Theory provides a rich theoretical basis for the development of models starting from a set of examples. Signal strength measurement is part of the normal operating mode of wireless equipment, in particular Wi-Fi, so that no custom hardware is required. The proposed techniques, based on the Support Vector Machine paradigm, have been implemented and compared, on the same data set, with other approaches considered in the literature. Tests performed in a real-world environment show that results are comparable, with the advantage of a low algorithmic complexity in the normal operating phase. Moreover, the algorithm is particularly suitable for classification, where it outperforms the other techniques
Active Sampling-based Binary Verification of Dynamical Systems
Nonlinear, adaptive, or otherwise complex control techniques are increasingly
relied upon to ensure the safety of systems operating in uncertain
environments. However, the nonlinearity of the resulting closed-loop system
complicates verification that the system does in fact satisfy those
requirements at all possible operating conditions. While analytical proof-based
techniques and finite abstractions can be used to provably verify the
closed-loop system's response at different operating conditions, they often
produce conservative approximations due to restrictive assumptions and are
difficult to construct in many applications. In contrast, popular statistical
verification techniques relax the restrictions and instead rely upon
simulations to construct statistical or probabilistic guarantees. This work
presents a data-driven statistical verification procedure that instead
constructs statistical learning models from simulated training data to separate
the set of possible perturbations into "safe" and "unsafe" subsets. Binary
evaluations of closed-loop system requirement satisfaction at various
realizations of the uncertainties are obtained through temporal logic
robustness metrics, which are then used to construct predictive models of
requirement satisfaction over the full set of possible uncertainties. As the
accuracy of these predictive statistical models is inherently coupled to the
quality of the training data, an active learning algorithm selects additional
sample points in order to maximize the expected change in the data-driven model
and thus, indirectly, minimize the prediction error. Various case studies
demonstrate the closed-loop verification procedure and highlight improvements
in prediction error over both existing analytical and statistical verification
techniques.Comment: 23 page
Neural networks and support vector machines based bio-activity classification
Classification of various compounds into their respective biological activity classes is important in drug discovery applications from an early phase virtual compound filtering and screening point of view. In this work two types of neural networks, multi layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis functions (RBF), and support vector machines (SVM) were employed for the classification of three types of biologically active enzyme inhibitors. Both of the networks were trained with back propagation learning method with chemical compounds whose active inhibition properties were previously known. A group of topological indices, selected with the help of principle component analysis (PCA) were used as descriptors. The results of all the three classification methods show that the performance of both the neural networks is better than the SVM
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