Testing the Dose–Response Specification in Epidemiology: Public Health and Policy Consequences for Lead

Statistical evaluation of the dose–response function in lead epidemiology is rarely attempted. Economic evaluation of health benefits of lead reduction usually assumes a linear dose–response function, regardless of the outcome measure used. We reanalyzed a previously published study, an international pooled data set combining data from seven prospective lead studies examining contemporaneous blood lead effect on IQ (intelligence quotient) of 7-year-old children (n = 1,333). We constructed alternative linear multiple regression models with linear blood lead terms (linear–linear dose response) and natural-log–transformed blood lead terms (log-linear dose response). We tested the two lead specifications for nonlinearity in the models, compared the two lead specifications for significantly better fit to the data, and examined the effects of possible residual confounding on the functional form of the dose–response relationship. We found that a log-linear lead–IQ relationship was a significantly better fit than was a linear–linear relationship for IQ (p = 0.009), with little evidence of residual confounding of included model variables. We substituted the log-linear lead–IQ effect in a previously published health benefits model and found that the economic savings due to U.S. population lead decrease between 1976 and 1999 (from 17.1 μg/dL to 2.0 μg/dL) was 2.2 times ($319 billion) that calculated using a linear–linear dose–response function ($149 billion). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention action limit of 10 μg/dL for children fails to protect against most damage and economic cost attributable to lead exposure

Barrier Functions for Multiagent-POMDPs with DTL Specifications

Multi-agent partially observable Markov decision processes (MPOMDPs) provide a framework to represent heterogeneous autonomous agents subject to uncertainty and partial observation. In this paper, given a nominal policy provided by a human operator or a conventional planning method, we propose a technique based on barrier functions to design a minimally interfering safety-shield ensuring satisfaction of high-level specifications in terms of linear distribution temporal logic (LDTL). To this end, we use sufficient and necessary conditions for the invariance of a given set based on discrete-time barrier functions (DTBFs) and formulate sufficient conditions for finite time DTBF to study finite time convergence to a set. We then show that different LDTL mission/safety specifications can be cast as a set of invariance or finite time reachability problems. We demonstrate that the proposed method for safety-shield synthesis can be implemented online by a sequence of one-step greedy algorithms. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method using experiments involving a team of robots

Who Cares About Patents? Cross-Industry Differences in the Marginal Value of Patent Term

How much do market participants in different industries value a marginal change in patent term (i.e., duration of patent protection)? We explore this research question by measuring the behavioral response of patentees to a rare natural experiment: a change in patent term rules, due to passage of the TRIPS agreement. We find significant heterogeneity in patentee behavior across industries, some of which follows conventional wisdom (patent term is important in pharmaceuticals) and some of which does not (it also appears to matter for some software). Our measure is highly correlated with patent renewal rates across industries, suggesting the marginal value of patent term increases with higher expected profits toward the end of term

Probabilistic Plan Synthesis for Coupled Multi-Agent Systems

This paper presents a fully automated procedure for controller synthesis for multi-agent systems under the presence of uncertainties. We model the motion of each of the $N$ agents in the environment as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and we assign to each agent one individual high-level formula given in Probabilistic Computational Tree Logic (PCTL). Each agent may need to collaborate with other agents in order to achieve a task. The collaboration is imposed by sharing actions between the agents. We aim to design local control policies such that each agent satisfies its individual PCTL formula. The proposed algorithm builds on clustering the agents, MDP products construction and controller policies design. We show that our approach has better computational complexity than the centralized case, which traditionally suffers from very high computational demands.Comment: IFAC WC 2017, Toulouse, Franc

Q-learning for robust satisfaction of signal temporal logic specifications

This paper addresses the problem of learning optimal policies for satisfying signal temporal logic (STL) specifications by agents with unknown stochastic dynamics. The system is modeled as a Markov decision process, in which the states represent partitions of a continuous space and the transition probabilities are unknown. We formulate two synthesis problems where the desired STL specification is enforced by maximizing the probability of satisfaction, and the expected robustness degree, that is, a measure quantifying the quality of satisfaction. We discuss that Q-learning is not directly applicable to these problems because, based on the quantitative semantics of STL, the probability of satisfaction and expected robustness degree are not in the standard objective form of Q-learning. To resolve this issue, we propose an approximation of STL synthesis problems that can be solved via Q-learning, and we derive some performance bounds for the policies obtained by the approximate approach. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated via simulations

A Lightweight Multilevel Markup Language for Connecting Software Requirements and Simulations

[Context] Simulation is a powerful tool to validate specified requirements especially for complex systems that constantly monitor and react to characteristics of their environment. The simulators for such systems are complex themselves as they simulate multiple actors with multiple interacting functions in a number of different scenarios. To validate requirements in such simulations, the requirements must be related to the simulation runs. [Problem] In practice, engineers are reluctant to state their requirements in terms of structured languages or models that would allow for a straightforward relation of requirements to simulation runs. Instead, the requirements are expressed as unstructured natural language text that is hard to assess in a set of complex simulation runs. Therefore, the feedback loop between requirements and simulation is very long or non-existent at all. [Principal idea] We aim to close the gap between requirements specifications and simulation by proposing a lightweight markup language for requirements. Our markup language provides a set of annotations on different levels that can be applied to natural language requirements. The annotations are mapped to simulation events. As a result, meaningful information from a set of simulation runs is shown directly in the requirements specification. [Contribution] Instead of forcing the engineer to write requirements in a specific way just for the purpose of relating them to a simulator, the markup language allows annotating the already specified requirements up to a level that is interesting for the engineer. We evaluate our approach by analyzing 8 original requirements of an automotive system in a set of 100 simulation runs

COST Action IC 1402 ArVI: Runtime Verification Beyond Monitoring -- Activity Report of Working Group 1

This report presents the activities of the first working group of the COST Action ArVI, Runtime Verification beyond Monitoring. The report aims to provide an overview of some of the major core aspects involved in Runtime Verification. Runtime Verification is the field of research dedicated to the analysis of system executions. It is often seen as a discipline that studies how a system run satisfies or violates correctness properties. The report exposes a taxonomy of Runtime Verification (RV) presenting the terminology involved with the main concepts of the field. The report also develops the concept of instrumentation, the various ways to instrument systems, and the fundamental role of instrumentation in designing an RV framework. We also discuss how RV interplays with other verification techniques such as model-checking, deductive verification, model learning, testing, and runtime assertion checking. Finally, we propose challenges in monitoring quantitative and statistical data beyond detecting property violation