Uncertainty in phylogenetic tree estimates

Estimating phylogenetic trees is an important problem in evolutionary biology, environmental policy and medicine. Although trees are estimated, their uncertainties are discarded by mathematicians working in tree space. Here we explicitly model the multivariate uncertainty of tree estimates. We consider both the cases where uncertainty information arises extrinsically (through covariate information) and intrinsically (through the tree estimates themselves). The importance of accounting for tree uncertainty in tree space is demonstrated in two case studies. In the first instance, differences between gene trees are small relative to their uncertainties, while in the second, the differences are relatively large. Our main goal is visualization of tree uncertainty, and we demonstrate advantages of our method with respect to reproducibility, speed and preservation of topological differences compared to visualization based on multidimensional scaling. The proposal highlights that phylogenetic trees are estimated in an extremely high-dimensional space, resulting in uncertainty information that cannot be discarded. Most importantly, it is a method that allows biologists to diagnose whether differences between gene trees are biologically meaningful, or due to uncertainty in estimation.Comment: Final version accepted to Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistic

BBCA: Improving the Scalability of *BEAST Using Random Binning

Species tree estimation can be challenging in the presence of gene tree conflict due to incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), which can occur when the time between speciation events is short relative to the population size. Of the many methods that have been developed to estimate species trees in the presence of ILS, *BEAST, a Bayesian method that co-estimates the species tree and gene trees given sequence alignments on multiple loci, has generally been shown to have the best accuracy. However, *BEAST is extremely computationally intensive so that it cannot be used with large numbers of loci; hence, *BEAST is not suitable for genome-scale analyses. Results: We present BBCA (boosted binned coalescent-based analysis), a method that can be used with *BEAST (and other such co-estimation methods) to improve scalability. BBCA partitions the loci randomly into subsets, uses *BEAST on each subset to co-estimate the gene trees and species tree for the subset, and then combines the newly estimated gene trees together using MP-EST, a popular coalescent-based summary method. We compare time-restricted versions of BBCA and *BEAST on simulated datasets, and show that BBCA is at least as accurate as *BEAST, and achieves better convergence rates for large numbers of loci. Conclusions: Phylogenomic analysis using *BEAST is currently limited to datasets with a small number of loci, and analyses with even just 100 loci can be computationally challenging. BBCA uses a very simple divide-and-conquer approach that makes it possible to use *BEAST on datasets containing hundreds of loci. This study shows that BBCA provides excellent accuracy and is highly scalable.Grant Agency of the Czech Republic P501-10-0208Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic AVOZ50040507, AVOZ50040702, MSMT LC0604Ministry of Innovation and Science of Spain, MICINN CGL2007-64839-C02/BOSCSIC (Superior Council of Scientific InvestigationsJosé Castillejo Grant from the MICINN of the Spanish GovernmentComputer Science

A Bayesian approach for inferring the dynamics of partially observed endemic infectious diseases from space-time-genetic data

We describe a statistical framework for reconstructing the sequence of transmission events between observed cases of an endemic infectious disease using genetic, temporal and spatial information. Previous approaches to reconstructing transmission trees have assumed all infections in the study area originated from a single introduction and that a large fraction of cases were observed. There are as yet no approaches appropriate for endemic situations in which a disease is already well established in a host population and in which there may be multiple origins of infection, or that can enumerate unobserved infections missing from the sample. Our proposed framework addresses these shortcomings, enabling reconstruction of partially observed transmission trees and estimating the number of cases missing from the sample. Analyses of simulated datasets show the method to be accurate in identifying direct transmissions, while introductions and transmissions via one or more unsampled intermediate cases could be identified at high to moderate levels of case detection. When applied to partial genome sequences of rabies virus sampled from an endemic region of South Africa, our method reveals several distinct transmission cycles with little contact between them, and direct transmission over long distances suggesting significant anthropogenic influence in the movement of infected dogs

Inferring Species Trees from Incongruent Multi-Copy Gene Trees Using the Robinson-Foulds Distance

We present a new method for inferring species trees from multi-copy gene trees. Our method is based on a generalization of the Robinson-Foulds (RF) distance to multi-labeled trees (mul-trees), i.e., gene trees in which multiple leaves can have the same label. Unlike most previous phylogenetic methods using gene trees, this method does not assume that gene tree incongruence is caused by a single, specific biological process, such as gene duplication and loss, deep coalescence, or lateral gene transfer. We prove that it is NP-hard to compute the RF distance between two mul-trees, but it is easy to calculate the generalized RF distance between a mul-tree and a singly-labeled tree. Motivated by this observation, we formulate the RF supertree problem for mul-trees (MulRF), which takes a collection of mul-trees and constructs a species tree that minimizes the total RF distance from the input mul-trees. We present a fast heuristic algorithm for the MulRF supertree problem. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the MulRF method produces more accurate species trees than gene tree parsimony methods when incongruence is caused by gene tree error, duplications and losses, and/or lateral gene transfer. Furthermore, the MulRF heuristic runs quickly on data sets containing hundreds of trees with up to a hundred taxa.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figure

A Bayesian phylogenetic hidden Markov model for B cell receptor sequence analysis.

The human body generates a diverse set of high affinity antibodies, the soluble form of B cell receptors (BCRs), that bind to and neutralize invading pathogens. The natural development of BCRs must be understood in order to design vaccines for highly mutable pathogens such as influenza and HIV. BCR diversity is induced by naturally occurring combinatorial "V(D)J" rearrangement, mutation, and selection processes. Most current methods for BCR sequence analysis focus on separately modeling the above processes. Statistical phylogenetic methods are often used to model the mutational dynamics of BCR sequence data, but these techniques do not consider all the complexities associated with B cell diversification such as the V(D)J rearrangement process. In particular, standard phylogenetic approaches assume the DNA bases of the progenitor (or "naive") sequence arise independently and according to the same distribution, ignoring the complexities of V(D)J rearrangement. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to Bayesian phylogenetic inference for BCR sequences that is based on a phylogenetic hidden Markov model (phylo-HMM). This technique not only integrates a naive rearrangement model with a phylogenetic model for BCR sequence evolution but also naturally accounts for uncertainty in all unobserved variables, including the phylogenetic tree, via posterior distribution sampling