5,207 research outputs found

    A Simple Modeling Framework For Prediction In The Human Glucose-Insulin System

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    In this paper, we build a new, simple, and interpretable mathematical model to describe the human glucose-insulin system. Our ultimate goal is the robust control of the blood glucose (BG) level of individuals to a desired healthy range, by means of adjusting the amount of nutrition and/or external insulin appropriately. By constructing a simple yet flexible model class, with interpretable parameters, this general model can be specialized to work in different settings, such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and intensive care unit (ICU); different choices of appropriate model functions describing uptake of nutrition and removal of glucose differentiate between the models. In both cases, the available data is sparse and collected in clinical settings, major factors that have constrained our model choice to the simple form adopted. The model has the form of a linear stochastic differential equation (SDE) to describe the evolution of the BG level. The model includes a term quantifying glucose removal from the bloodstream through the regulation system of the human body, and another two terms representing the effect of nutrition and externally delivered insulin. The parameters entering the equation must be learned in a patient-specific fashion, leading to personalized models. We present numerical results on patient-specific parameter estimation and future BG level forecasting in T2DM and ICU settings. The resulting model leads to the prediction of the BG level as an expected value accompanied by a band around this value which accounts for uncertainties in the prediction. Such predictions, then, have the potential for use as part of control systems which are robust to model imperfections and noisy data. Finally, a comparison of the predictive capability of the model with two different models specifically built for T2DM and ICU contexts is also performed.Comment: 47 pages, 9 figures, 7 table

    Glucose controle in critically ill children

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    Glucose controle in critically ill children

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    An investigation into the effects of commencing haemodialysis in the critically ill

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    <b>Introduction:</b> We have aimed to describe haemodynamic changes when haemodialysis is instituted in the critically ill. 3 hypotheses are tested: 1)The initial session is associated with cardiovascular instability, 2)The initial session is associated with more cardiovascular instability compared to subsequent sessions, and 3)Looking at unstable sessions alone, there will be a greater proportion of potentially harmful changes in the initial sessions compared to subsequent ones. <b>Methods:</b> Data was collected for 209 patients, identifying 1605 dialysis sessions. Analysis was performed on hourly records, classifying sessions as stable/unstable by a cutoff of >+/-20% change in baseline physiology (HR/MAP). Data from 3 hours prior, and 4 hours after dialysis was included, and average and minimum values derived. 3 time comparisons were made (pre-HD:during, during HD:post, pre-HD:post). Initial sessions were analysed separately from subsequent sessions to derive 2 groups. If a session was identified as being unstable, then the nature of instability was examined by recording whether changes crossed defined physiological ranges. The changes seen in unstable sessions could be described as to their effects: being harmful/potentially harmful, or beneficial/potentially beneficial. <b>Results:</b> Discarding incomplete data, 181 initial and 1382 subsequent sessions were analysed. A session was deemed to be stable if there was no significant change (>+/-20%) in the time-averaged or minimum MAP/HR across time comparisons. By this definition 85/181 initial sessions were unstable (47%, 95% CI SEM 39.8-54.2). Therefore Hypothesis 1 is accepted. This compares to 44% of subsequent sessions (95% CI 41.1-46.3). Comparing these proportions and their respective CI gives a 95% CI for the standard error of the difference of -4% to 10%. Therefore Hypothesis 2 is rejected. In initial sessions there were 92/1020 harmful changes. This gives a proportion of 9.0% (95% CI SEM 7.4-10.9). In the subsequent sessions there were 712/7248 harmful changes. This gives a proportion of 9.8% (95% CI SEM 9.1-10.5). Comparing the two unpaired proportions gives a difference of -0.08% with a 95% CI of the SE of the difference of -2.5 to +1.2. Hypothesis 3 is rejected. Fisher’s exact test gives a result of p=0.68, reinforcing the lack of significant variance. <b>Conclusions:</b> Our results reject the claims that using haemodialysis is an inherently unstable choice of therapy. Although proportionally more of the initial sessions are classed as unstable, the majority of MAP and HR changes are beneficial in nature

    Model-Based Analysis of User Behaviors in Medical Cyber-Physical Systems

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    Human operators play a critical role in various Cyber-Physical System (CPS) domains, for example, transportation, smart living, robotics, and medicine. The rapid advancement of automation technology is driving a trend towards deep human-automation cooperation in many safety-critical applications, making it important to explicitly consider user behaviors throughout the system development cycle. While past research has generated extensive knowledge and techniques for analyzing human-automation interaction, in many emerging applications, it remains an open challenge to develop quantitative models of user behaviors that can be directly incorporated into the system-level analysis. This dissertation describes methods for modeling different types of user behaviors in medical CPS and integrating the behavioral models into system analysis. We make three main contributions. First, we design a model-based analysis framework to evaluate, improve, and formally verify the robustness of generic (i.e., non-personalized) user behaviors that are typically driven by rule-based clinical protocols. We conceptualize a data-driven technique to predict safety-critical events at run-time in the presence of possible time-varying process disturbances. Second, we develop a methodology to systematically identify behavior variables and functional relationships in healthcare applications. We build personalized behavior models and analyze population-level behavioral patterns. Third, we propose a sequential decision filtering technique by leveraging a generic parameter-invariant test to validate behavior information that may be measured through unreliable channels, which is a practical challenge in many human-in-the-loop applications. A unique strength of this validation technique is that it achieves high inter-subject consistency despite uncertain parametric variances in the physiological processes, without needing any individual-level tuning. We validate the proposed approaches by applying them to several case studies
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