291,261 research outputs found

    Probabilistic Scheduling Based On Hybrid Bayesian Network–Program Evaluation Review Technique,

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    Project scheduling based on probabilistic methods commonly uses the Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT). However, practitioners do not widely utilize PERT-based scheduling due to the difficulty in obtaining historical data for similar projects. PERT has several drawbacks, such as the inability to update activity dura- tions in real time. In reality, changes in project conditions related to resources have a highly dynamic nature. The availability of materials, fluctuating labor productiv- ity, and equipment significantly determine the project completion time. This research aims to propose a probabilistic scheduling model based on the Hybrid Bayesian Network-PERT. This model combines PERT with Bayesian Network (BN). BN is used to accommodate real-time changes in resource conditions. The modeling of BN diagrams and variables is obtained through an in-depth literature review, direct field observations, and distributing questionnaires to experts in project scheduling. The model is validated by applying the proposed model to a 60 m concrete bridge construction project in Indonesia. The simulation results of the proposed model are then compared with the case study project to assess the model’s accuracy. The result of the study shows that the proposed hybrid Bayesian-PERT model is accurate and can eliminate the weaknesses of the PERT method. Besides being able to provide an accurate prediction of project completion time (93.4%), this model can also be updated in real-time according to the actual condition of the projec

    Redshift Space Distortion of the 21cm Background from the Epoch of Reionization I: Methodology Re-examined

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    The peculiar velocity of the intergalactic gas responsible for the cosmic 21cm background from the epoch of reionization and beyond introduces an anisotropy in the three-dimensional power spectrum of brightness temperature fluctuations. Measurement of this anisotropy by future 21cm surveys is a promising tool for separating cosmology from 21cm astrophysics. However, previous attempts to model the signal have often neglected peculiar velocity or only approximated it crudely. This paper presents a detailed treatment of the effects of peculiar velocity on the 21cm signal. (1) We show that properly accounting for finite optical depth eliminates the unphysical divergence of 21cm brightness temperature in the IGM overdense regions found in previous work that employed the usual optically-thin approximation. (2) We show that previous attempts to circumvent this divergence by capping the velocity gradient result in significant errors in the power spectrum on all scales. (3) We further show that the observed power spectrum in redshift-space remains finite even in the optically-thin approximation if one properly accounts for the redshift-space distortion. However, results that take full account of finite optical depth show that this approximation is only accurate in the limit of high spin temperature. (4) We also show that the linear theory for redshift-space distortion results in a ~30% error in the power spectrum at the observationally relevant wavenumber range, at the 50% ionized epoch. (5) We describe and test two numerical schemes to calculate the 21cm signal from reionization simulations which accurately incorporate peculiar velocity in the optically-thin approximation. One is particle-based, the other grid-based, and while the former is most accurate, we demonstrate that the latter is computationally more efficient and can achieve sufficient accuracy. [Abridged

    Ideal magnetohydrodynamic simulations of unmagnetized dense plasma jet injection into a hot strongly magnetized plasma

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    We present results from three-dimensional ideal magnetohydrodynamic simulations of unmagnetized dense plasma jet injection into a uniform hot strongly magnetized plasma, with the aim of providing insight into core fueling of a tokamak with parameters relevant for ITER and NSTX (National Spherical Torus Experiment). Unmagnetized dense plasma jet injection is similar to compact toroid injection but with much higher plasma density and total mass, and consequently lower required injection velocity. Mass deposition of the jet into the background appears to be facilitated via magnetic reconnection along the jet's trailing edge. The penetration depth of the plasma jet into the background plasma is mostly dependent on the jet's initial kinetic energy, and a key requirement for spatially localized mass deposition is for the jet's slowing-down time to be less than the time for the perturbed background magnetic flux to relax due to magnetic reconnection. This work suggests that more accurate treatment of reconnection is needed to fully model this problem. Parameters for unmagnetized dense plasma jet injection are identified for localized core deposition as well as edge localized mode (ELM) pacing applications in ITER and NSTX-relevant regimes.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures and 2 tables; accepted by Nuclear Fusion (May 11, 2011

    Frequency-modulated continuous-wave LiDAR compressive depth-mapping

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    We present an inexpensive architecture for converting a frequency-modulated continuous-wave LiDAR system into a compressive-sensing based depth-mapping camera. Instead of raster scanning to obtain depth-maps, compressive sensing is used to significantly reduce the number of measurements. Ideally, our approach requires two difference detectors. % but can operate with only one at the cost of doubling the number of measurments. Due to the large flux entering the detectors, the signal amplification from heterodyne detection, and the effects of background subtraction from compressive sensing, the system can obtain higher signal-to-noise ratios over detector-array based schemes while scanning a scene faster than is possible through raster-scanning. %Moreover, we show how a single total-variation minimization and two fast least-squares minimizations, instead of a single complex nonlinear minimization, can efficiently recover high-resolution depth-maps with minimal computational overhead. Moreover, by efficiently storing only 2m2m data points from m<nm<n measurements of an nn pixel scene, we can easily extract depths by solving only two linear equations with efficient convex-optimization methods

    Simulations for Multi-Object Spectrograph Planet Surveys

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    Radial velocity surveys for extra-solar planets generally require substantial amounts of large telescope time in order to monitor a sufficient number of stars. Two of the aspects which can limit such surveys are the single-object capabilities of the spectrograph, and an inefficient observing strategy for a given observing window. In addition, the detection rate of extra-solar planets using the radial velocity method has thus far been relatively linear with time. With the development of various multi-object Doppler survey instruments, there is growing potential to dramatically increase the detection rate using the Doppler method. Several of these instruments have already begun usage in large scale surveys for extra-solar planets, such as FLAMES on the VLT and Keck ET on the Sloan 2.5m wide-field telescope. In order to plan an effective observing strategy for such a program, one must examine the expected results based on a given observing window and target selection. We present simulations of the expected results from a generic multi-object survey based on calculated noise models and sensitivity for the instrument and the known distribution of exoplanetary system parameters. We have developed code for automatically sifting and fitting the planet candidates produced by the survey to allow for fast follow-up observations to be conducted. The techniques presented here may be applied to a wide range of multi-object planet surveys.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA
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