2,761 research outputs found

    How economic growth and rational decisions can make disaster losses grow faster than wealth

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    Assuming that capital productivity is higher in areas at risk from natural hazards (such as coastal zones or flood plains), this paper shows that rapid development in these areas -- and the resulting increase in disaster losses -- may be the consequence of a rational and well-informed trade-off between lower disaster losses and higher productivity. With disasters possibly becoming less frequent but increasingly destructive in the future, average disaster losses may grow faster than wealth. Myopic expectations, lack of information, moral hazard, and externalities reinforce the likelihood of this scenario. These results have consequences on how to design risk management and climate change policies.Hazard Risk Management,Natural Disasters,Labor Policies,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Economic Theory&Research

    A wide-spectrum approach to modelling and analysis of organisation for machine-assisted decision-making

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    This paper describes a modeling approach that helps to represent necessary aspects of complex socio-technical systems, such as organization, in an integrated form and provides a simulation technique for analyzing these organi-sations. An actor-based language is introduced and compared to a conventional simulation approach (Stock-and-Flow) by simulating aspects of a software ser-vices company

    A wide-spectrum approach to modelling and analysis of organisation for machine-assisted decision-making

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    This paper describes a modeling approach that helps to represent necessary aspects of complex socio-technical systems, such as organization, in an integrated form and provides a simulation technique for analyzing these organisations. An actor-based language is introduced and compared to a conventional simulation approach (Stock-and-Flow) by simulating aspects of a software services company

    Annotated Bibliography: Anticipation

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    ComplexWorld Position Paper

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    The Complex ATM Position Paper is the common research vehicle that defines the high-level, strategic scientific vision for the ComplexWorld Network. The purpose of this document is to provide an orderly and consistent scientific framework for the WP-E complexity theme. The specific objectives of the position paper are to: - analyse the state of the art within the different research areas relevant to the network, identifying the major accomplishments and providing a comprehensive set of references, including the main publications and research projects; - include a complete list of , a list of application topics, and an analysis of which techniques are best suited to each one of those applications; - identify and perform an in-depth analysis of the most promising research avenues and the major research challenges lying at the junction of ATM and complex systems domains, with particular attention to their impact and potential benefits for the ATM community; - identify areas of common interest and synergies with other SESAR activities, with special attention to the research topics covered by other WP-E networks. An additional goal for future versions of this position paper is to develop an indicative roadmap on how these research challenges should be accomplished, providing a guide on how to leverage on different aspects of the complexity research in Air Transport

    Process mining for healthcare: Characteristics and challenges

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    Process mining techniques can be used to analyse business processes using the data logged during their execution. These techniques are leveraged in a wide range of domains, including healthcare, where it focuses mainly on the analysis of diagnostic, treatment, and organisational processes. Despite the huge amount of data generated in hospitals by staff and machinery involved in healthcare processes, there is no evidence of a systematic uptake of process mining beyond targeted case studies in a research context. When developing and using process mining in healthcare, distinguishing characteristics of healthcare processes such as their variability and patient-centred focus require targeted attention. Against this background, the Process-Oriented Data Science in Healthcare Alliance has been established to propagate the research and application of techniques targeting the data-driven improvement of healthcare processes. This paper, an initiative of the alliance, presents the distinguishing characteristics of the healthcare domain that need to be considered to successfully use process mining, as well as open challenges that need to be addressed by the community in the future.This work is partially supported by ANID FONDECYT 1220202, Dirección de Investigación de la Vicerrectoría de Investigación de la Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - PUENTE [Grant No. 026/ 2021]; and Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo [Grant Nos. ANID-PFCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2019–21190116, ANID-PFCHA/ Doctorado Nacional/2020–21201411]. With regard to the co-author Hilda Klasky, this manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE). The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-accessplan).Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 55 autors/es: Jorge Munoz-Gama (a)* , Niels Martin (b,c)* , Carlos Fernandez-Llatas (d,g)* , Owen A. Johnson (e)* , Marcos Sepúlveda (a)* , Emmanuel Helm (f)* , Victor Galvez-Yanjari (a)* , Eric Rojas (a) , Antonio Martinez-Millana (d) , Davide Aloini (k) , Ilaria Angela Amantea (l,q,r) , Robert Andrews (ab), Michael Arias (z) , Iris Beerepoot (o) , Elisabetta Benevento (k) , Andrea Burattin (ai), Daniel Capurro (j) , Josep Carmona (s) , Marco Comuzzi (w), Benjamin Dalmas (aj,ak), Rene de la Fuente (a) , Chiara Di Francescomarino (h) , Claudio Di Ciccio (i) , Roberto Gatta (ad,ae), Chiara Ghidini (h) , Fernanda Gonzalez-Lopez (a) , Gema Ibanez-Sanchez (d) , Hilda B. Klasky (p) , Angelina Prima Kurniati (al), Xixi Lu (o) , Felix Mannhardt (m), Ronny Mans (af), Mar Marcos (v) , Renata Medeiros de Carvalho (m), Marco Pegoraro (x) , Simon K. Poon (ag), Luise Pufahl (u) , Hajo A. Reijers (m,o) , Simon Remy (y) , Stefanie Rinderle-Ma (ah), Lucia Sacchi (t) , Fernando Seoane (g,am,an), Minseok Song (aa), Alessandro Stefanini (k) , Emilio Sulis (l) , Arthur H. M. ter Hofstede (ab), Pieter J. Toussaint (ac), Vicente Traver (d) , Zoe Valero-Ramon (d) , Inge van de Weerd (o) , Wil M.P. van der Aalst (x) , Rob Vanwersch (m), Mathias Weske (y) , Moe Thandar Wynn (ab), Francesca Zerbato (n) // (a) Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Chile; (b) Hasselt University, Belgium; (c) Research Foundation Flanders (FWO), Belgium; (d) Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain; (e) University of Leeds, United Kingdom; (f) University of Applied Sciences Upper Austria, Austria; (g) Karolinska Institutet, Sweden; (h) Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Italy; (i) Sapienza University of Rome, Italy; (j) University of Melbourne, Australia; (k) University of Pisa, Italy; (l) University of Turin, Italy; (m) Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands; (n) University of St. Gallen, Switzerland; (o) Utrecht University, The Netherlands; (p) Oak Ridge National Laboratory, United States; (q) University of Bologna, Italy; (r) University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg; (s) Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain; (t) University of Pavia, Italy; (u) Technische Universitaet Berlin, Germany; (v) Universitat Jaume I, Spain; (w) Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Republic of Korea; (x) RWTH Aachen University, Germany; (y) University of Potsdam, Germany; (z) Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica; (aa) Pohang University of Science and Technology, Republic of Korea; (ab) Queensland University of Technology, Australia; (ac) Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway; (ad) Universita degli Studi di Brescia, Italy; (ae) Lausanne University Hospital (CHUV), Switzerland; (af) Philips Research, the Netherlands; (ag) The University of Sydney, Australia; (ah) Technical University of Munich, Germany; (ai) Technical University of Denmark, Denmark; (aj) Mines Saint-Etienne, France; (ak) Université Clermont Auvergne, France; (al) Telkom University, Indonesia; (am) Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden; (an) University of Borås, SwedenPostprint (published version

    Process mining for healthcare: Characteristics and challenges

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    [EN] Process mining techniques can be used to analyse business processes using the data logged during their execution. These techniques are leveraged in a wide range of domains, including healthcare, where it focuses mainly on the analysis of diagnostic, treatment, and organisational processes. Despite the huge amount of data generated in hospitals by staff and machinery involved in healthcare processes, there is no evidence of a systematic uptake of process mining beyond targeted case studies in a research context. When developing and using process mining in healthcare, distinguishing characteristics of healthcare processes such as their variability and patient-centred focus require targeted attention. Against this background, the Process-Oriented Data Science in Healthcare Alliance has been established to propagate the research and application of techniques targeting the data-driven improvement of healthcare processes. This paper, an initiative of the alliance, presents the distinguishing characteristics of the healthcare domain that need to be considered to successfully use process mining, as well as open challenges that need to be addressed by the community in the future.This work is partially supported by ANID FONDECYT 1220202, Direccion de Investigacion de la Vicerrectoria de Investigacion de la Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile-PUENTE [Grant No. 026/2021] ; and Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo [Grant Nos. ANID-PFCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2019-21190116, ANID-PFCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2020-21201411] . With regard to the co-author Hilda Klasky, this manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE) . The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan)Munoz Gama, J.; Martin, N.; Fernández Llatas, C.; Johnson, OA.; Sepúlveda, M.; Helm, E.; Galvez-Yanjari, V.... (2022). Process mining for healthcare: Characteristics and challenges. Journal of Biomedical Informatics. 127:1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbi.2022.10399411512

    Joint Location and Dispatching Decisions for Emergency Medical Service Systems

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    Emergency Medical Service (EMS) systems are a service that provides acute care and transportation to a place for definitive care, to people experiencing a medical emergency. The ultimate goal of EMS systems is to save lives. The ability of EMS systems to do this effectively is impacted by several resource allocation decisions including location of servers (ambulances), districting of demand zones and dispatching rules for the servers. The location decision is strategic while the dispatching decision is operational. Those two decisions are usually made separately although both affect typical EMS performance measures. The service from an ambulance is usually time sensitive (patients generally want the ambulances to be available as soon as possible), and the demand for service is stochastic. Regulators also impose availability constraints, the most generally accepted being that 90\% of high priority calls (such as those related to cardiac arrest events) should be attended to within 8 minutes and 59 seconds. In the case of minimizing the mean response time as the only objective, previous works have shown that there are cases in which it might not be optimal to send the closest available server to achieve the minimum overall response time. Some researchers have proposed integrated models in which the two decisions are made sequentially. The main contribution of this work is precisely in developing the integration of location and dispatching decisions made simultaneously. Combining those decisions leads to complex optimization models in which even the formulation is not straightforward. In addition, given the stochastic nature of the EMS systems the models need to have a way to represent their probabilistic nature. Several researchers agree that the use of queuing theory elements in combination with location, districting and dispatching models is the best way to represent EMS systems. Often heuristic/approximate solution procedures have been proposed and used since the use of exact methods is only suitable for small instances. Performance indicators other than Response Time can be affected negatively when the dispatching rule is sending the closest server. For instance, there are previous works claiming that when the workload of the servers is taken into account, the nearest dispatching policy can cause workload imbalances. Therefore, researchers mentioned as a potential research direction to develop solution approaches in which location, districting and dispatching could be handled in parallel, due to the effect that all those decisions have on key performance measures for an EMS system. In this work the aim is precisely the development of an optimization framework for the joint problem of location and dispatching in the context of EMS systems. The optimization framework is based on meta heuristics. Fairness performance indicators are also considered, taking into account different points of view about the system, in addition to the standard efficiency criteria. Initially we cover general aspects related to EMS systems, including an overall description of main characteristics being modeled as well as an initial overview of related literature. We also include an overall description and literature review with focus on solution methodologies for real instances, of two related problems: the pp-median problem and the maximal covering location problem (MCLP). Those two problems provide much of the basic structure upon which the main mathematical model integrating location and dispatching decisions is built later. Next we introduce the mathematical model (mixed-integer non-linear problem) which has embedded a queuing component describing the service nature of the system. Given the nature of the resulting model it was necessary to develop a solution algorithm. It was done based on Genetic Algorithms. We have found no benefit on using the joint approach regarding mean Response Time minimization or Expected Coverage maximization. We concluded that minimizing Response Time is a better approach than maximizing Expected Coverage, in terms of the trade-off between those two criteria. Once the optimization framework was developed we introduced fairness ideas to the location/allocation of servers for EMS systems. Unlike the case of Response Time, we found that the joint approach finds better solutions for the fairness criteria, both from the point of view of internal and external costumers. The importance of that result lies in the fact that people not only expect the service from ambulances to be quick, but also expect it to be fair, at least in the sense that any costumer in the system should have the same chances of receiving quick attention. From the point of view of service providers, balancing ambulance workloads is also desirable. Equity and efficiency criteria are often in conflict with each other, hence analyzing trade-offs is a first step to attempt balancing different points of view from different stakeholders. The initial modeling and solution approach solve the problem by using a heuristic method for the overall location/allocation decisions and an exact solution to the embedded queuing model. The problem of such an approach is that the embedded queuing model increases its size exponentially with relation to the number of ambulances in the system. Thus the approach is not practical for large scale real systems, say having 10+ ambulances. Therefore we addressed the scalability problem by introducing approximation procedures to solve the embedded queuing model. The approximation procedures are faster than the exact solution method for the embedded sub-problem. Previous works mentioned that the approximated solutions are only marginally apart from the exact solution (1 to 2\%). The mathematical model also changed allowing for several ambulances to be assigned to a single station, which is a typical characteristic of real world large scale EMS systems. To be able to solve bigger instances we also changed the solution procedure, using a Tabu Search based algorithm, with random initialization and dynamic size of the tabu list. The conclusions in terms of benefits of the joint approach are true for bigger systems, i.e. the joint approach allows for finding the best solutions from the point of view of several fairness criteria
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