Accounting for parameter uncertainty in large-scale stochastic simulations with correlated inputs

This paper considers large-scale stochastic simulations with correlated inputs having normal-to-anything (NORTA) distributions with arbitrary continuous marginal distributions. Examples of correlated inputs include processing times of workpieces across several workcenters in manufacturing facilities and product demands and exchange rates in global supply chains. Our goal is to obtain mean performance measures and confidence intervals for simulations with such correlated inputs by accounting for the uncertainty around the NORTA distribution parameters estimated from finite historical input data. This type of uncertainty is known as the parameter uncertainty in the discrete-event stochastic simulation literature. We demonstrate how to capture parameter uncertainty with a Bayesian model that uses Sklar's marginal-copula representation and Cooke's copula-vine specification for sampling the parameters of the NORTA distribution. The development of such a Bayesian model well suited for handling many correlated inputs is the primary contribution of this paper. We incorporate the Bayesian model into the simulation replication algorithm for the joint representation of stochastic uncertainty and parameter uncertainty in the mean performance estimate and the confidence interval. We show that our model improves both the consistency of the mean line-item fill-rate estimates and the coverage of the confidence intervals in multiproduct inventory simulations with correlated demands. © 2011 INFORMS

Semiconductor manufacturing simulation design and analysis with limited data

This paper discusses simulation design and analysis for Silicon Carbide (SiC) manufacturing operations management at New York Power Electronics Manufacturing Consortium (PEMC) facility. Prior work has addressed the development of manufacturing system simulation as the decision support to solve the strategic equipment portfolio selection problem for the SiC fab design [1]. As we move into the phase of collecting data from the equipment purchased for the PEMC facility, we discuss how to redesign our manufacturing simulations and analyze their outputs to overcome the challenges that naturally arise in the presence of limited fab data. We conclude with insights on how an approach aimed to reflect learning from data can enable our discrete-event stochastic simulation to accurately estimate the performance measures for SiC manufacturing at the PEMC facility

The role of learning on industrial simulation design and analysis

The capability of modeling real-world system operations has turned simulation into an indispensable problemsolving methodology for business system design and analysis. Today, simulation supports decisions ranging from sourcing to operations to finance, starting at the strategic level and proceeding towards tactical and operational levels of decision-making. In such a dynamic setting, the practice of simulation goes beyond being a static problem-solving exercise and requires integration with learning. This article discusses the role of learning in simulation design and analysis motivated by the needs of industrial problems and describes how selected tools of statistical learning can be utilized for this purpose

The GPU vs Phi Debate: Risk Analytics Using Many-Core Computing

The risk of reinsurance portfolios covering globally occurring natural catastrophes, such as earthquakes and hurricanes, is quantified by employing simulations. These simulations are computationally intensive and require large amounts of data to be processed. The use of many-core hardware accelerators, such as the Intel Xeon Phi and the NVIDIA Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), are desirable for achieving high-performance risk analytics. In this paper, we set out to investigate how accelerators can be employed in risk analytics, focusing on developing parallel algorithms for Aggregate Risk Analysis, a simulation which computes the Probable Maximum Loss of a portfolio taking both primary and secondary uncertainties into account. The key result is that both hardware accelerators are useful in different contexts; without taking data transfer times into account the Phi had lowest execution times when used independently and the GPU along with a host in a hybrid platform yielded best performance.Comment: A modified version of this article is accepted to the Computers and Electrical Engineering Journal under the title - "The Hardware Accelerator Debate: A Financial Risk Case Study Using Many-Core Computing"; Blesson Varghese, "The Hardware Accelerator Debate: A Financial Risk Case Study Using Many-Core Computing," Computers and Electrical Engineering, 201

Cross-talk and interference enhance information capacity of a signaling pathway

A recurring motif in gene regulatory networks is transcription factors (TFs) that regulate each other, and then bind to overlapping sites on DNA, where they interact and synergistically control transcription of a target gene. Here, we suggest that this motif maximizes information flow in a noisy network. Gene expression is an inherently noisy process due to thermal fluctuations and the small number of molecules involved. A consequence of multiple TFs interacting at overlapping binding-sites is that their binding noise becomes correlated. Using concepts from information theory, we show that in general a signaling pathway transmits more information if 1) noise of one input is correlated with that of the other, 2) input signals are not chosen independently. In the case of TFs, the latter criterion hints at up-stream cross-regulation. We demonstrate these ideas for competing TFs and feed-forward gene regulatory modules, and discuss generalizations to other signaling pathways. Our results challenge the conventional approach of treating biological noise as uncorrelated fluctuations, and present a systematic method for understanding TF cross-regulation networks either from direct measurements of binding noise, or bioinformatic analysis of overlapping binding-sites.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figure

Reconciling model and information uncertainty in development appraisal

This paper investigates the effect of choices of model structure and scale in development viability appraisal. The paper addresses two questions concerning the application of development appraisal techniques to viability modelling within the UK planning system. The first relates to the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the choice of model structure significantly affects model outputs. The second concerns the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the level of model complexity significantly affects model outputs. Monte Carlo simulation procedures are applied to a hypothetical development scheme in order to measure the effects of model aggregation and structure on model output variance. It is concluded that, given the particular scheme modelled and unavoidably subjective assumptions of input variance, simple and simplistic models may produce similar outputs to more robust and disaggregated models