Planning for Density in a Driverless World

Automobile-centered, low-density development was the defining feature of population growth in the United States for decades. This development pattern displaced wildlife, destroyed habitat, and contributed to a national loss of biodiversity. It also meant, eventually, that commutes and air quality worsened, a sense of local character was lost in many places, and the negative consequences of sprawl impacted an increasing percentage of the population. Those impacts led to something of a shift in the national attitude toward sprawl. More people than ever are fluent in concepts of “smart growth,” “new urbanism,” and “green building,” and with these tools and others, municipalities across the country are working to redevelop a central core, rethink failing transit systems, and promote pockets of density. Changing technology may disrupt this trend. Self-driving vehicles are expected to be widespread within the next several decades. Those vehicles will likely reduce congestion, air pollution, and deaths, and free up huge amounts of productive time in the car. These benefits may also eliminate much of the conventional motivation and rationale behind sprawl reduction. As the time-cost of driving falls, driverless cars have the potential to incentivize human development of land that, by virtue of its distance from settled metropolitan areas, had been previously untouched. From the broader ecological perspective, each human surge into undeveloped land results in habitat destruction and fragmentation, and additional loss of biological diversity. New automobile technology may therefore usher in better air quality, increased safety, and a significant threat to ecosystem health. Our urban and suburban environments have been molded for centuries to the needs of various forms of transportation. The same result appears likely to occur in response to autonomous vehicles, if proactive steps are not taken to address their likely impacts. Currently, little planning is being done to prepare for driverless technology. Actors at multiple levels, however, have tools at their disposal to help ensure that new technology does not come at the expense of the nation’s remaining natural habitats. This Article advocates for a shift in paradigm from policies that are merely anti-car to those that are pro-density, and provides suggestions for both cities and suburban areas for how harness the positive aspects of driverless cars while trying to stem the negative. Planning for density regardless of technology will help to ensure that, for the world of the future, there is actually a world

What impressions do users have after a ride in an automated shuttle? An interview study

In the future, automated shuttles may provide on-demand transport and serve as feeders to public transport systems. However, automated shuttles will only become widely used if they are accepted by the public. This paper presents results of an interview study with 30 users of an automated shuttle on the EUREF (Europäisches Energieforum) campus in Berlin-Schöneberg to obtain in-depth understanding of the acceptance of automated shuttles as feeders to public transport systems. From the interviews, we identified 340 quotes, which were classified into six categories: (1) expectations about the capabilities of the automated shuttle (10% of quotes), (2) evaluation of the shuttle performance (10%), (3) service quality (34%), (4) risk and benefit perception (15%), (5) travel purpose (25%), and (6) trust (6%). The quotes indicated that respondents had idealized expectations about the technological capabilities of the automated shuttle, which may have been fostered by the media. Respondents were positive about the idea of using automated shuttles as feeders to public transport systems but did not believe that the shuttle will allow them to engage in cognitively demanding activities such as working. Furthermore, 20% of respondents indicated to prefer supervision of shuttles via an external control room or steward on board over unsupervised automation. In conclusion, even though the current automated shuttle did not live up to the respondents’ expectations, respondents still perceived automated shuttles as a viable option for feeders to public transport systems.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Transport and PlanningHuman-Robot InteractionIntelligent VehiclesTransport and Plannin

The future of mobility impact of robotaxis on the european passenger transportation industry

Automation, connectivity, electrification, and shared mobility are the dominant trends transforming the passenger transportation industry. Together they form what is considered one of the most disruptive means of transportation of the future, the robotaxi. This master thesis explores the impact of robotaxis on the future of the passenger transportation industry, with particular attention to the usage perspectives and mobility behavior of consumers. The results are based on an exploratory analysis involving seven in-depth semi-structured expert interviews, a consumer survey, and existing literature. Usage perspectives were observed through a use case analysis that identified work-related commuting as the use case with the highest application potential. In the light of work-related commuting, the thesis revealed that robotaxis significantly reduce commuters’ value of time and display an attractive mobility alternative from a cost perspective. In addition, it is shown that in the next ten years, consumer preferences regarding consumers’ transportation choice significantly shift towards robotaxis. The research reveals that the industry’s most likely future state is characterized by the gradual introduction of robotaxis. Therefore, in five to ten years, robotaxis are used by early adopters and will impose significant changes in industry dynamics as competition increases and new revenue streams emerge. The results intend to enable industry players to target specific consumers, derive strategic implications, business models, and vehicle concepts. Further, they contribute to an objective scientific, political, and social discussion and serve as a basis for further research in the field of robotaxis.Automação, conectividade, eletrificação, e mobilidade partilhada são as tendências dominantes que têm transformado a indústria de transporte de passageiros. Juntos, formam um dos meios de transporte mais disruptivos, o robotáxi. Esta tese explora o impacto dos robotáxis no futuro desta indústria, focando-se nas perspetivas de utilização e no comportamento de mobilidade dos consumidores. Os resultados baseiam-se numa análise que inclui sete entrevistas feitas a peritos, um inquérito aos consumidores e na literatura existente. As perspetivas de utilização foram observadas através de uma análise de caso de uso que identificou as deslocações para o trabalho como o caso com maior potencial de aplicação. Revela-se que os robotáxis reduzem significativamente a perceção de tempo gasto nestas deslocações e constituem uma alternativa de mobilidade atrativa do ponto de vista monetário. Adicionalmente, mostra-se que, nos próximos dez anos, as preferências dos consumidores em relação à escolha de transporte mudarão significativamente havendo uma tendência para a adoção de robotáxis. Este estudo revela que o futuro da indústria será marcado pela introdução gradual de robotáxis. Assim, dentro de cinco a dez anos, os robotáxis serão utilizados pelos consumidores pioneiros na adoção e irão impor mudanças significativas na dinâmica da indústria à medida que a concorrência aumente e surjam novos fluxos de receitas. Os resultados do estudo pretendem permitir aos agentes desta indústria focar-se em consumidores específicos, retirar implicações estratégicas, modelos empresariais, e conceitos relacionados com veículos. Adicionalmente, contribuem para uma discussão científica, política e social e servem de base para mais investigação no campo dos robotáxis

Leisure mobility and mobility problems of elderly people in urban, suburban and rural environment: preliminary results from the research project FRAME

Ageing is a lifelong process. But currently the attitudes about ageing and the opportunities for older people are changing. The foreseeable demographic development in the next 30 years provides a challenge to analyse and develop for the expected social and spatial effects of an ageing population. Formerly, the image of ageing included homogeneous portraits of immobile, lonely and frail older people and their activity spaces were mainly concentrated on the neighbourhood environment. In the future, more older people will be healthier, they will live longer, they will be more mobile having their own car, and more time will be available for leisure activities in additional and more distant areas. For urban and regional planning this development contains the following challenges: - The increasing variation within the age groups ranging from very active and mobile lifestyles to uninvolved and immobile lifestyles creates concurrent requirements for urban and regional structures. - The contradiction of restricting the negative impact of car-related environmental effects and supporting a self-reliant mobility of older people - especially in rural areas - cannot be solved with conventional planning methods. - The decentralized accessibility of service and leisure infrastructure is decreasing because of a general tendency of concentration and the 'ageing of the suburbs' meaning the percentage of older people in suburbs is growing. Serving this (sub)urban development is as critical as limiting it. Besides these changes, services and urban infrastructure do not only provide functional but also social qualities (e.g. meeting a neighbour on the way to the grocery). For older people who don't drive a car (any more), mobility is definitely restricted when the possibilities of activity become less accessible. First empirical results from the research project "FRAME - Leisure Mobility of Older People", a cooperation of geographers, psychologists and transportation planners from the Universities of Bonn and Dortmund, supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research will be presented. The aim of the project is a concept of a mobility design for leisure activities of older people in consideration of environmental, social and ecological constraints. In the Region of Bonn and the Eifel an analysis will be led focussing on urban, suburban and rural areas. The different spatial frame conditions will be analysed in relation to leisure mobility of older people. So far, the relationship between residential satisfaction, access to a car, transportation behaviour etc. cannot easily be connected to the spatial structure because of the simultaneous impact of social and spatial effects. Causalities are difficult to state: The average use of a car is not only determined by the built environment, but the choice of the housing location was made with the expectation of the constant availability of a car. For the conceptual part it is important to state, that community structures are not only determined by the built environment, but by social, organizational and operative structures as well. Existing social networks are a basis for mobility, because for older people, the question often is whether an accompanying person or a travel companion is available. An adequate design might be an organizational concept to support older people moving to a new home early enough within a short distance. The aim would be for example to maintain the social network and to decrease the distance to infrastructure or public transportation. Urban and regional structures in general are crucial for self-reliant mobility of older people. The structure needs to follow the aim to secure an inspiring environment and to facilitate the daily business getting done even without a car. To ensure quality of life, motivations and reasons for mobility need to be known.

Shared autonomous vehicle services: A comprehensive review

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd The actions of autonomous vehicle manufacturers and related industrial partners, as well as the interest from policy makers and researchers, point towards the likely initial deployment of autonomous vehicles as shared autonomous mobility services. Numerous studies are lately being published regarding Shared Autonomous Vehicle (SAV) applications and hence, it is imperative to have a comprehensive outlook, consolidating the existing knowledge base. This work comprehensively consolidates studies in the rapidly emerging field of SAV. The primary focus is the comprehensive review of the foreseen impacts, which are categorised into seven groups, namely (i) Traffic & Safety, (ii) Travel behaviour, (iii) Economy, (iv) Transport supply, (v) Land–use, (vi) Environment & (vii) Governance. Pertinently, an SAV typology is presented and the components involved in modelling SAV services are described. Issues relating to the expected demand patterns and a required suitable policy framework are explicitly discussed

Commercial Short-Haul Flight or Autonomous Mobility-On-Demand: Modeling Air Passengers’ Modal Choice

Commercial short-haul flights (SF) are vital to airports and airlines because they account for one-third of hub traffic and have higher profit margins than the long-haul market. While U.S. commercial air passenger travel has increased steadily over the past decades, SF has been declining and was doing so before the unprecedented decrease in air travel caused by restrictions related to the COVID-19 global pandemic. Once autonomous mobility-on-demand (aMoD) is more viable than the human-driven car, demand for SF could be negatively impacted. Although there is published research on SF and aMoD, studies on factors influencing the choice between SF and aMoD are missing. Based on goal framing theory (GFT) variables, contextual trip attributes, COVID-19 items, and demographics, this study used a quantitative survey design to answer two research questions. The first question sought to identify factors that most influence U.S. air travelers’ modal choice for inter-regional travel. The second question aimed to identify distinct passenger clusters for SF and aMoD and evaluate the similarities and differences within these passenger segments. An online questionnaire of 69 items was developed based on extant literature and the theoretical foundation of the GFT. The survey was administered online with an air passenger sample in October 2021 via Amazon’s MTurk Results from 1,388 air passenger respondents qualified for data analyses, including exploratory factor analysis (EFA), multinomial logistic regression (MNL), two-step cluster analysis (CA), and multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). The findings support the GFT as a theoretical framework for modeling future mode choice and SF and aMoD clusters. The current primary transport mode was the most critical predictor for future mode choice. Self-efficacy, value of time, trust, and habit are new variables added to the GFT framework. The first two were useful in predicting future mode choice; trust and habit were not. Two-thirds (66%) of the current SF passengers intend to shift to other transport modes once aMoD is available; 31% of the current SF market share could be lost to aMoD and 20% to conventional driving. More than half of the current most-traveled air passengers intend to use aMoD as their main transport choice. The potential significant shifts in the ground- and air-mode shares revealed in this study may have crucial impacts on airlines, airports, infrastructure, future air/land-use planning, and the travel and hospitality industries

Clustering the Portuguese population regarding adoption and intention to use UAM

With the growing use of public transport, the means that currently exist become insufficient and incapable of meeting the needs of the population, giving rise to the urgent need to develop a new means of mobility. From the investment in technologies such as automation, a concept emerges that involves circulation in the airspace of cities, Urban Air Mobility which can be used for both passenger and freight transport and proves to be a more sustainable option to respond to mobility needs of citizens. This study seeks to find out in the Portuguese population which groups will be more receptive to embrace this new form of mobility, through the levels of acceptance and intention to use air vehicles. Data collection is done using an online survey, where respondents are presented with various factors that may impact how they will accept or use the technology when it is implemented, determining factors such as safety, mobility habits, environmental impact, or possible benefits or disadvantages of its application. The survey was distributed in Portugal and valid 485 responses were obtained, the collected data was applied in order to develop a cluster analysis, preceded by a principal component analysis to ensure a more concrete division of groups, and also non-parametric analyses. This study intends to understand which groups within the Portuguese population will be more open to receiving UAM as a reliable means of transport and which factors are nuclear to the acceptance of this technology.Com a crescente utilização dos transportes públicos, os meios que existem atualmente tornam-se insuficientes e incapazes de satisfazer as necessidades da população, surgindo a urgência de desenvolver um novo meio de mobilidade. Recorrendo ao investimento em tecnologias como a automatização, surge um conceito que envolve circulação no espaço aéreo das cidades, Mobilidade Aérea Urbana, que pode ser utilizada para transporte tanto de passageiros como de mercadorias, e demonstra ser uma opção mais sustentável para responder às necessidades de mobilidade dos cidadãos. O presente estudo procura apurar na população portuguesa, que grupos estarão mais recetivos a abraçar esta nova forma de mobilidade, através dos níveis de aceitação e intenção de uso dos veículos aéreos. A recolha de dados é feita recorrendo a um inquérito online, onde inquiridos são apresentados a vários fatores que podem impactar na forma como estes podem vir a aceitar ou utilizar a tecnologia quando esta for implementada, fatores determinantes como segurança, hábitos de mobilidade, o impacto ambiental, ou possíveis benefícios ou desvantagens da sua aplicação. O inquérito foi distribuído em Portugal e foram obtidas 485 respostas, os dados recolhidos foram aplicados de forma a desenvolver uma análise de clusters, antecedida de uma análise de componentes principais para garantir uma divisão dos grupos mais concreta, e também análises não paramétricas. Este estudo pretende entender que grupos, dentro da população portuguesa, estarão mais abertos a receber a UAM como um meio de transporte fiável e que fatores são determinantes para a aceitação desta tecnologia