A Multi-Gene Genetic Programming Application for Predicting Students Failure at School

Several efforts to predict student failure rate (SFR) at school accurately still remains a core problem area faced by many in the educational sector. The procedure for forecasting SFR are rigid and most often times require data scaling or conversion into binary form such as is the case of the logistic model which may lead to lose of information and effect size attenuation. Also, the high number of factors, incomplete and unbalanced dataset, and black boxing issues as in Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy logic systems exposes the need for more efficient tools. Currently the application of Genetic Programming (GP) holds great promises and has produced tremendous positive results in different sectors. In this regard, this study developed GPSFARPS, a software application to provide a robust solution to the prediction of SFR using an evolutionary algorithm known as multi-gene genetic programming. The approach is validated by feeding a testing data set to the evolved GP models. Result obtained from GPSFARPS simulations show its unique ability to evolve a suitable failure rate expression with a fast convergence at 30 generations from a maximum specified generation of 500. The multi-gene system was also able to minimize the evolved model expression and accurately predict student failure rate using a subset of the original expressionComment: 14 pages, 9 figures, Journal paper. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1403.0623 by other author

Fast and Adaptive Sparse Precision Matrix Estimation in High Dimensions

This paper proposes a new method for estimating sparse precision matrices in the high dimensional setting. It has been popular to study fast computation and adaptive procedures for this problem. We propose a novel approach, called Sparse Column-wise Inverse Operator, to address these two issues. We analyze an adaptive procedure based on cross validation, and establish its convergence rate under the Frobenius norm. The convergence rates under other matrix norms are also established. This method also enjoys the advantage of fast computation for large-scale problems, via a coordinate descent algorithm. Numerical merits are illustrated using both simulated and real datasets. In particular, it performs favorably on an HIV brain tissue dataset and an ADHD resting-state fMRI dataset.Comment: Maintext: 24 pages. Supplement: 13 pages. R package scio implementing the proposed method is available on CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/package=scio . Published in J of Multivariate Analysis at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047259X1400260

An evolutionary behavioral model for decision making

For autonomous agents the problem of deciding what to do next becomes increasingly complex when acting in unpredictable and dynamic environments pursuing multiple and possibly conflicting goals. One of the most relevant behavior-based model that tries to deal with this problem is the one proposed by Maes, the Bbehavior Network model. This model proposes a set of behaviors as purposive perception-action units which are linked in a nonhierarchical network, and whose behavior selection process is orchestrated by spreading activation dynamics. In spite of being an adaptive model (in the sense of self-regulating its own behavior selection process), and despite the fact that several extensions have been proposed in order to improve the original model adaptability, there is not a robust model yet that can self-modify adaptively both the topological structure and the functional purpose\ud of the network as a result of the interaction between the agent and its environment. Thus, this work proffers an innovative hybrid model driven by gene expression programming, which makes two main contributions: (1) given an initial set of meaningless and unconnected units, the evolutionary mechanism is able to build well-defined and robust behavior networks which are adapted and specialized to concrete internal agent's needs and goals; and (2)\ud the same evolutionary mechanism is able to assemble quite\ud complex structures such as deliberative plans (which operate in the long-term) and problem-solving strategies

Challenges of Big Data Analysis

Big Data bring new opportunities to modern society and challenges to data scientists. On one hand, Big Data hold great promises for discovering subtle population patterns and heterogeneities that are not possible with small-scale data. On the other hand, the massive sample size and high dimensionality of Big Data introduce unique computational and statistical challenges, including scalability and storage bottleneck, noise accumulation, spurious correlation, incidental endogeneity, and measurement errors. These challenges are distinguished and require new computational and statistical paradigm. This article give overviews on the salient features of Big Data and how these features impact on paradigm change on statistical and computational methods as well as computing architectures. We also provide various new perspectives on the Big Data analysis and computation. In particular, we emphasis on the viability of the sparsest solution in high-confidence set and point out that exogeneous assumptions in most statistical methods for Big Data can not be validated due to incidental endogeneity. They can lead to wrong statistical inferences and consequently wrong scientific conclusions

A Direct Estimation Approach to Sparse Linear Discriminant Analysis

This paper considers sparse linear discriminant analysis of high-dimensional data. In contrast to the existing methods which are based on separate estimation of the precision matrix \O and the difference \de of the mean vectors, we introduce a simple and effective classifier by estimating the product \O\de directly through constrained $\ell_1$ minimization. The estimator can be implemented efficiently using linear programming and the resulting classifier is called the linear programming discriminant (LPD) rule. The LPD rule is shown to have desirable theoretical and numerical properties. It exploits the approximate sparsity of \O\de and as a consequence allows cases where it can still perform well even when \O and/or \de cannot be estimated consistently. Asymptotic properties of the LPD rule are investigated and consistency and rate of convergence results are given. The LPD classifier has superior finite sample performance and significant computational advantages over the existing methods that require separate estimation of \O and \de. The LPD rule is also applied to analyze real datasets from lung cancer and leukemia studies. The classifier performs favorably in comparison to existing methods.Comment: 39 pages.To appear in Journal of the American Statistical Associatio

A D.C. Programming Approach to the Sparse Generalized Eigenvalue Problem

In this paper, we consider the sparse eigenvalue problem wherein the goal is to obtain a sparse solution to the generalized eigenvalue problem. We achieve this by constraining the cardinality of the solution to the generalized eigenvalue problem and obtain sparse principal component analysis (PCA), sparse canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and sparse Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) as special cases. Unlike the $\ell_1$-norm approximation to the cardinality constraint, which previous methods have used in the context of sparse PCA, we propose a tighter approximation that is related to the negative log-likelihood of a Student's t-distribution. The problem is then framed as a d.c. (difference of convex functions) program and is solved as a sequence of convex programs by invoking the majorization-minimization method. The resulting algorithm is proved to exhibit \emph{global convergence} behavior, i.e., for any random initialization, the sequence (subsequence) of iterates generated by the algorithm converges to a stationary point of the d.c. program. The performance of the algorithm is empirically demonstrated on both sparse PCA (finding few relevant genes that explain as much variance as possible in a high-dimensional gene dataset) and sparse CCA (cross-language document retrieval and vocabulary selection for music retrieval) applications.Comment: 40 page

Subsampling Algorithms for Semidefinite Programming

We derive a stochastic gradient algorithm for semidefinite optimization using randomization techniques. The algorithm uses subsampling to reduce the computational cost of each iteration and the subsampling ratio explicitly controls granularity, i.e. the tradeoff between cost per iteration and total number of iterations. Furthermore, the total computational cost is directly proportional to the complexity (i.e. rank) of the solution. We study numerical performance on some large-scale problems arising in statistical learning.Comment: Final version, to appear in Stochastic System