An economic model of risk assessment for water projects

Abstract The projects that concern water resources are characterized by the multiple risk rates – even extra–financial – that significantly affect their concrete feasibility. Although the risk assessment is decisive for expressing economic convenience judgements on these project initiatives, the decision-maker does not have precise references to determine whether the residual investment risk is acceptable. Thus, the purpose of the paper is to overcome the limit set by characterizing a model for the acceptability of project risk, also considering the plurality of environmental effects that the water projects generate on the community. The idea is to integrate the logic 'As Low As Reasonably Practicable' (ALARP) into the procedural schemes of Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA). In accordance with this principle, widely applied in high-risk sectors such as those of industrial engineering, a risk is ALARP when the costs to further reduce it are disproportionate to the obtainable benefits. The application of the model to an irrigation reconversion intervention in a Municipality in the Province of Salerno (Italy) shows that the ALARP logic defines a general way of thinking and can contribute to the definition of effective forecasting protocols. In this sense, the proposed methodology becomes a useful support for environmental decision-making. (The paper is to be attributed in equal parts to the three authors.

Nuclear Energy in the UK: Safety Culture and Industrial Organisation

In this paper we seek to explore the relationship between professionalism and nuclear safety in the UK. We consider the history of civil nuclear energy in Britain and the near complete shift in emphasis from state owned enterprises to the private sector. We show how in recent years government has acknowledged that a truly liberalised electricity industry is unable to deliver the construction of new nuclear power stations as part of a future low carbon electricity system. Throughout, however, the intention has been for policy merely to incentivise the private sector rather than to steer industry strategy directly. Having said that, the line between strong incentives and weak control can be hard to see. We present illustrative examples, real and fictional, that give insight into the UK nuclear safety culture and we discuss the wider nature of UK society with respect to corruption. We conclude that the unique basis of safety regulation in the UK, essentially permissive rather than prescriptive, has a key role to play in promoting and maintaining nuclear professionalism

Case Study On The Assessment Of Sinkhole Risk For The Development Of Infrastructure Over Karstic Ground

Practical Applications and Case Studie

Confidence: Its role in dependability cases for risk assessment

Society is increasingly requiring quantitative assessment of risk and associated dependability cases. Informally, a dependability case comprises some reasoning, based on assumptions and evidence, that supports a dependability claim at a particular level of confidence. In this paper we argue that a quantitative assessment of claim confidence is necessary for proper assessment of risk. We discuss the way in which confidence depends upon uncertainty about the underpinnings of the dependability case (truth of assumptions, correctness of reasoning, strength of evidence), and propose that probability is the appropriate measure of uncertainty. We discuss some of the obstacles to quantitative assessment of confidence (issues of composability of subsystem claims; of the multi-dimensional, multi-attribute nature of dependability claims; of the difficult role played by dependence between different kinds of evidence, assumptions, etc). We show that, even in simple cases, the confidence in a claim arising from a dependability case can be surprisingly low

A comparative analysis of security risk management in Norwegian oil and gas and renewable energy companies.

With the recognised urgent need to combat climate change globally, the renewables industry has witnessed significant growth to meet ambitious net zero targets. This thesis aims to emphasize the importance of improving security risk governance to adapt to the evolving energy sector. The increasing adoption of renewable solutions and the expansion of renewable production presents a landscape characterized by uncertain and complex market dynamics. Additionally, these developments contribute to a more adverse threat environment driven by innovation in research and development (R&D), technology, and digitalization. Considering these advancements, criminal actors now have greater opportunity, motive, and increased capabilities, regardless of whether the company is focused on oil and gas, or renewable production. While damages to a renewables asset result in lower costs and less detrimental environmental impacts when compared to an offshore oil and gas asset, they can still have adverse implications on company values. Impacts to critical renewable assets have the potential to increase reliance on traditional fossil fuels, negatively impact local communities, and detrimentally impact company margins. Furthermore, due to market volatility and energy politics, nations aim to safeguard energy supply and reduce dependence on external sources. This is particularly relevant when considering the sanctions imposed on Russian oil and gas following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As a result, energy independence and energy security have become increasingly more critical. This thesis has identified with certainty that there is a significant lack of maturity within security risk governance in renewables companies. Therefore, by comparing how both the oil and gas, and renewables sector acknowledge security and therein approach security risk management, a platform is created to offer fit-for-purpose recommendations to the renewables sector. Furthermore, this thesis acknowledges the lower margin nature of renewable production and ultimately emphasises fostering a sustainable and dynamic security culture that allows industry to strategically expand into higher security threat environments. Key words: Renewable production, Security risk, Risk Governance, Security Risk Assessments, risk tolerabilit

Juridical Side of ALARP: The Monte Bianco Tunnel

When the ALARP “as low as reasonably practicable” principle is considered in judgments, this always comprehends a proportionate cost-risk analysis of protection measures: minimum risk has to mean level of safety maximization conditional to a given equitable profit, and maximum profit given a minimum sufficient level of safety. In London Court in 1949, Lord Asquith's definition of “reasonably practicable” in its judgment “Edwards v. National Coal Board”, as well as the whole judgment, became the legal basis of a requirement for risk assessments. Since then, ALARP has been officially endorsed and safety measures implemented in governments and enterprises in order to mitigate and manage risks. The study aims to analyse the failures in the Monte Bianco tunnel’s accident – which occurred on March 24, 1999 – from a logical perspective in order to develop a higher level of safety based on past experience and that played a central role in generating the current European Directive 2004/54/EC on minimum safety requirements for tunnels. This article reveals the consequences of ignoring the value of ALARP principle. Error analysis in Forensic Engineering are discussed and Gu@larp model contribution is considered

Management of Residual Explosive Remnants of War (MORE) Issue Briefs

This guide is one of several addressing different aspects of Management of Residual Explosive Remnants of War (MORE) and linking with wider information resources held by the GICHD. It should be read in conjunction with other guides in the series. Related publications are indicated in the text and a range of tools, which may help users when addressing their own situations, are identified whenever they are relevant. This guide was released during the June 2015 International Symposium Long-term ERW management in Southeast Asia in Siem Reap, Cambodia

Human error–induced risk in reinforced concrete bridge engineering

Throughout the last century and in recent years, several bridge failures have taken place worldwide. Recent studies uncovered that the primary cause of these collapses was human errors in the design, construction, and operation phases. Regardless of this finding, there is still a considerable gap between this information and the known errors and the risk they represent for structural safety. Aiming for a better understanding of human errors, an identification procedure and a qualitative assessment of such errors considering risk-based indicators (probability of occurrence and consequence) was performed. Several brainstorming meetings with design and construction experts led to the identification of 49 relevant human errors, which were listed for further evaluation on a survey. Much more important than identifying and assessing these errors is identifying those that pose a greater threat to safety. Using a decision-making tool (analytical hierarchy process) to process all the information collected in the survey, the errors were ranked according to risk indicators. Furthermore, a qualitative risk assessment is performed, allowing the identification of the errors denoting higher risk for structural safety, according to experts’ opinions.This research was developed at the University of Minho in close cooperation with the following entities: Adão da Fonseca, COST Action TU 1406, GEG, HDP, IABSE, Portuguese Infrastructures, Mota Engil and Soares da Costa. This work was partly financed by: (i) FEDER funds through the Competitivity Factors Operational Programme (COMPETE) and by national funds through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) within the scope of project POCI 01 0145 FEDER 007633; (ii) national funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology, under grant agreement “PD/BD/143003/2018” attributed to the 1st author; and (iii) FCT / MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) under the R&D Unit Institute for Sustainability and Innovation in Structural Engineering (ISISE), under reference UIDB / 04029/202