A stigmergy-based analysis of city hotspots to discover trends and anomalies in urban transportation usage

A key aspect of a sustainable urban transportation system is the effectiveness of transportation policies. To be effective, a policy has to consider a broad range of elements, such as pollution emission, traffic flow, and human mobility. Due to the complexity and variability of these elements in the urban area, to produce effective policies remains a very challenging task. With the introduction of the smart city paradigm, a widely available amount of data can be generated in the urban spaces. Such data can be a fundamental source of knowledge to improve policies because they can reflect the sustainability issues underlying the city. In this context, we propose an approach to exploit urban positioning data based on stigmergy, a bio-inspired mechanism providing scalar and temporal aggregation of samples. By employing stigmergy, samples in proximity with each other are aggregated into a functional structure called trail. The trail summarizes relevant dynamics in data and allows matching them, providing a measure of their similarity. Moreover, this mechanism can be specialized to unfold specific dynamics. Specifically, we identify high-density urban areas (i.e hotspots), analyze their activity over time, and unfold anomalies. Moreover, by matching activity patterns, a continuous measure of the dissimilarity with respect to the typical activity pattern is provided. This measure can be used by policy makers to evaluate the effect of policies and change them dynamically. As a case study, we analyze taxi trip data gathered in Manhattan from 2013 to 2015.Comment: Preprin

Visual analytics of location-based social networks for decision support

Recent advances in technology have enabled people to add location information to social networks called Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs) where people share their communication and whereabouts not only in their daily lives, but also during abnormal situations, such as crisis events. However, since the volume of the data exceeds the boundaries of human analytical capabilities, it is almost impossible to perform a straightforward qualitative analysis of the data. The emerging field of visual analytics has been introduced to tackle such challenges by integrating the approaches from statistical data analysis and human computer interaction into highly interactive visual environments. Based on the idea of visual analytics, this research contributes the techniques of knowledge discovery in social media data for providing comprehensive situational awareness. We extract valuable hidden information from the huge volume of unstructured social media data and model the extracted information for visualizing meaningful information along with user-centered interactive interfaces. We develop visual analytics techniques and systems for spatial decision support through coupling modeling of spatiotemporal social media data, with scalable and interactive visual environments. These systems allow analysts to detect and examine abnormal events within social media data by integrating automated analytical techniques and visual methods. We provide comprehensive analysis of public behavior response in disaster events through exploring and examining the spatial and temporal distribution of LBSNs. We also propose a trajectory-based visual analytics of LBSNs for anomalous human movement analysis during crises by incorporating a novel classification technique. Finally, we introduce a visual analytics approach for forecasting the overall flow of human crowds

Deep Mixture Point Processes: Spatio-temporal Event Prediction with Rich Contextual Information

Predicting when and where events will occur in cities, like taxi pick-ups, crimes, and vehicle collisions, is a challenging and important problem with many applications in fields such as urban planning, transportation optimization and location-based marketing. Though many point processes have been proposed to model events in a continuous spatio-temporal space, none of them allow for the consideration of the rich contextual factors that affect event occurrence, such as weather, social activities, geographical characteristics, and traffic. In this paper, we propose \textsf{DMPP} (Deep Mixture Point Processes), a point process model for predicting spatio-temporal events with the use of rich contextual information; a key advance is its incorporation of the heterogeneous and high-dimensional context available in image and text data. Specifically, we design the intensity of our point process model as a mixture of kernels, where the mixture weights are modeled by a deep neural network. This formulation allows us to automatically learn the complex nonlinear effects of the contextual factors on event occurrence. At the same time, this formulation makes analytical integration over the intensity, which is required for point process estimation, tractable. We use real-world data sets from different domains to demonstrate that DMPP has better predictive performance than existing methods.Comment: KDD 1