502 research outputs found
Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data
We propose an efficient family of algorithms to learn the parameters of a
Bayesian network from incomplete data. In contrast to textbook approaches such
as EM and the gradient method, our approach is non-iterative, yields closed
form parameter estimates, and eliminates the need for inference in a Bayesian
network. Our approach provides consistent parameter estimates for missing data
problems that are MCAR, MAR, and in some cases, MNAR. Empirically, our approach
is orders of magnitude faster than EM (as our approach requires no inference).
Given sufficient data, we learn parameters that can be orders of magnitude more
accurate
Symbolic Exact Inference for Discrete Probabilistic Programs
The computational burden of probabilistic inference remains a hurdle for
applying probabilistic programming languages to practical problems of interest.
In this work, we provide a semantic and algorithmic foundation for efficient
exact inference on discrete-valued finite-domain imperative probabilistic
programs. We leverage and generalize efficient inference procedures for
Bayesian networks, which exploit the structure of the network to decompose the
inference task, thereby avoiding full path enumeration. To do this, we first
compile probabilistic programs to a symbolic representation. Then we adapt
techniques from the probabilistic logic programming and artificial intelligence
communities in order to perform inference on the symbolic representation. We
formalize our approach, prove it sound, and experimentally validate it against
existing exact and approximate inference techniques. We show that our inference
approach is competitive with inference procedures specialized for Bayesian
networks, thereby expanding the class of probabilistic programs that can be
practically analyzed
Bayesian Software Health Management for Aircraft Guidance, Navigation, and Control
Modern aircraft, both piloted fly-by-wire commercial aircraft as well as UAVs, more and more depend on highly complex safety critical software systems with many sensors and computer-controlled actuators. Despite careful design and V&V of the software, severe incidents have happened due to malfunctioning software. In this paper, we discuss the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to monitor the health of the on-board software and sensor system, and to perform advanced on-board diagnostic reasoning. We will focus on the approach to develop reliable and robust health models for the combined software and sensor systems
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