Expectile Matrix Factorization for Skewed Data Analysis

Matrix factorization is a popular approach to solving matrix estimation problems based on partial observations. Existing matrix factorization is based on least squares and aims to yield a low-rank matrix to interpret the conditional sample means given the observations. However, in many real applications with skewed and extreme data, least squares cannot explain their central tendency or tail distributions, yielding undesired estimates. In this paper, we propose \emph{expectile matrix factorization} by introducing asymmetric least squares, a key concept in expectile regression analysis, into the matrix factorization framework. We propose an efficient algorithm to solve the new problem based on alternating minimization and quadratic programming. We prove that our algorithm converges to a global optimum and exactly recovers the true underlying low-rank matrices when noise is zero. For synthetic data with skewed noise and a real-world dataset containing web service response times, the proposed scheme achieves lower recovery errors than the existing matrix factorization method based on least squares in a wide range of settings.Comment: 8 page main text with 5 page supplementary documents, published in AAAI 201

Data-driven Soft Sensors in the Process Industry

In the last two decades Soft Sensors established themselves as a valuable alternative to the traditional means for the acquisition of critical process variables, process monitoring and other tasks which are related to process control. This paper discusses characteristics of the process industry data which are critical for the development of data-driven Soft Sensors. These characteristics are common to a large number of process industry fields, like the chemical industry, bioprocess industry, steel industry, etc. The focus of this work is put on the data-driven Soft Sensors because of their growing popularity, already demonstrated usefulness and huge, though yet not completely realised, potential. A comprehensive selection of case studies covering the three most important Soft Sensor application fields, a general introduction to the most popular Soft Sensor modelling techniques as well as a discussion of some open issues in the Soft Sensor development and maintenance and their possible solutions are the main contributions of this work

Global consensus Monte Carlo

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the data. Inspired by global variable consensus optimisation, we introduce an instrumental hierarchical model associating auxiliary statistical parameters with each term, which are conditionally independent given the top-level parameters. One of these top-level parameters controls the unconditional strength of association between the auxiliary parameters. This model leads to a distributed MCMC algorithm on an extended state space yielding approximations of posterior expectations. A trade-off between computational tractability and fidelity to the original model can be controlled by changing the association strength in the instrumental model. We further propose the use of a SMC sampler with a sequence of association strengths, allowing both the automatic determination of appropriate strengths and for a bias correction technique to be applied. In contrast to similar distributed Monte Carlo algorithms, this approach requires few distributional assumptions. The performance of the algorithms is illustrated with a number of simulated examples

Partial robust M-regression.

Partial Least Squares (PLS) is a standard statistical method in chemometrics. It can be considered as an incomplete, or 'partial', version of the Least Squares estimator of regression, applicable when high or perfect multicollinearity is present in the predictor variables. The Least Squares estimator is well-known to be an optimal estimator for regression, but only when the error terms are normally distributed. In the absence of normality, and in particular when outliers are in the data set, other more robust regression estimators have better properties. In this paper a 'partial' version of M-regression estimators will be defined. If an appropriate weighting scheme is chosen, partial M-estimators become entirely robust to any type of outlying points, and are called Partial Robust M-estimators. It is shown that partial robust M-regression outperforms existing methods for robust PLS regression in terms of statistical precision and computational speed, while keeping good robustness properties. The method is applied to a data set consisting of EPXMA spectra of archaeological glass vessels. This data set contains several outliers, and the advantages of partial robust M-regression are illustrated. Applying partial robust M-regression yields much smaller prediction errors for noisy calibration samples than PLS. On the other hand, if the data follow perfectly well a normal model, the loss in efficiency to be paid for is very small.Advantages; Applications; Calibration; Data; Distribution; Efficiency; Estimator; Least-squares; M-estimators; Methods; Model; Optimal; Ordinary least squares; Outliers; Partial least squares; Precision; Prediction; Projection-pursuit; Regression; Robust regression; Robustness; Simulation; Spectometric quantization; Squares; Studies; Variables; Yield;