Confidence Corridors for Multivariate Generalized Quantile Regression

We focus on the construction of confidence corridors for multivariate nonparametric generalized quantile regression functions. This construction is based on asymptotic results for the maximal deviation between a suitable nonparametric estimator and the true function of interest which follow after a series of approximation steps including a Bahadur representation, a new strong approximation theorem and exponential tail inequalities for Gaussian random fields. As a byproduct we also obtain confidence corridors for the regression function in the classical mean regression. In order to deal with the problem of slowly decreasing error in coverage probability of the asymptotic confidence corridors, which results in meager coverage for small sample sizes, a simple bootstrap procedure is designed based on the leading term of the Bahadur representation. The finite sample properties of both procedures are investigated by means of a simulation study and it is demonstrated that the bootstrap procedure considerably outperforms the asymptotic bands in terms of coverage accuracy. Finally, the bootstrap confidence corridors are used to study the efficacy of the National Supported Work Demonstration, which is a randomized employment enhancement program launched in the 1970s. This article has supplementary materials

Nonparametric checks for single-index models

In this paper we study goodness-of-fit testing of single-index models. The large sample behavior of certain score-type test statistics is investigated. As a by-product, we obtain asymptotically distribution-free maximin tests for a large class of local alternatives. Furthermore, characteristic function based goodness-of-fit tests are proposed which are omnibus and able to detect peak alternatives. Simulation results indicate that the approximation through the limit distribution is acceptable already for moderate sample sizes. Applications to two real data sets are illustrated.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053605000000020 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Nonparametric confidence bands in deconvolution density estimation

Uniform confidence bands for densities f via nonparametric kernel estimates were first constructed by Bickel and Rosenblatt [Ann. Statist. 1, 1071.1095]. In this paper this is extended to confidence bands in the deconvolution problem g = f for an ordinary smooth error density . Under certain regularity conditions, we obtain asymptotic uniform confidence bands based on the asymptotic distribution of the maximal deviation (LÉ-distance) between a deconvolution kernel estimator . f and f. Further consistency of the simple nonparametric bootstrap is proved. For our theoretical developments the bias is simply corrected by choosing an undersmoothing bandwidth. For practical purposes we propose a new data-driven bandwidth selector based on heuristic arguments, which aims --

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to computing tail probabilities in stochastic models

Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential Monte Carlo estimators, we show how resampling weights can be chosen to yield logarithmically efficient Monte Carlo estimates of large deviation probabilities for multidimensional Markov random walks.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AAP758 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Semi-nonparametric IV estimation of shape-invariant Engel curves

This paper studies a shape-invariant Engel curve system with endogenous total expenditure, in which the shape-invariant specification involves a common shift parameter for each demographic group in a pooled system of nonparametric Engel curves. We focus on the identification and estimation of both the nonparametric shapes of the Engel curves and the parametric specification of the demographic scaling parameters. The identification condition relates to the bounded completeness and the estimation procedure applies the sieve minimum distance estimation of conditional moment restrictions, allowing for endogeneity. We establish a new root mean squared convergence rate for the nonparametric instrumental variable regression when the endogenous regressor could have unbounded support. Root-n asymptotic normality and semiparametric efficiency of the parametric components are also given under a set of "low-level" sufficient conditions. Our empirical application using the U.K. Family Expenditure Survey shows the importance of adjusting for endogeneity in terms of both the nonparametric curvatures and the demographic parameters of systems of Engel curves

FastMMD: Ensemble of Circular Discrepancy for Efficient Two-Sample Test

The maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) is a recently proposed test statistic for two-sample test. Its quadratic time complexity, however, greatly hampers its availability to large-scale applications. To accelerate the MMD calculation, in this study we propose an efficient method called FastMMD. The core idea of FastMMD is to equivalently transform the MMD with shift-invariant kernels into the amplitude expectation of a linear combination of sinusoid components based on Bochner's theorem and Fourier transform (Rahimi & Recht, 2007). Taking advantage of sampling of Fourier transform, FastMMD decreases the time complexity for MMD calculation from $O(N^2 d)$ to $O(L N d)$, where $N$ and $d$ are the size and dimension of the sample set, respectively. Here $L$ is the number of basis functions for approximating kernels which determines the approximation accuracy. For kernels that are spherically invariant, the computation can be further accelerated to $O(L N \log d)$ by using the Fastfood technique (Le et al., 2013). The uniform convergence of our method has also been theoretically proved in both unbiased and biased estimates. We have further provided a geometric explanation for our method, namely ensemble of circular discrepancy, which facilitates us to understand the insight of MMD, and is hopeful to help arouse more extensive metrics for assessing two-sample test. Experimental results substantiate that FastMMD is with similar accuracy as exact MMD, while with faster computation speed and lower variance than the existing MMD approximation methods

Geometric Inference on Kernel Density Estimates

We show that geometric inference of a point cloud can be calculated by examining its kernel density estimate with a Gaussian kernel. This allows one to consider kernel density estimates, which are robust to spatial noise, subsampling, and approximate computation in comparison to raw point sets. This is achieved by examining the sublevel sets of the kernel distance, which isomorphically map to superlevel sets of the kernel density estimate. We prove new properties about the kernel distance, demonstrating stability results and allowing it to inherit reconstruction results from recent advances in distance-based topological reconstruction. Moreover, we provide an algorithm to estimate its topology using weighted Vietoris-Rips complexes.Comment: To appear in SoCG 2015. 36 pages, 5 figure

Uniform confidence bands for pricing kernels

Pricing kernels implicit in option prices play a key role in assessing the risk aversion over equity returns. We deal with nonparametric estimation of the pricing kernel (Empirical Pricing Kernel) given by the ratio of the risk-neutral density estimator and the subjective density estimator. The former density can be represented as the second derivative w.r.t. the European call option price function, which we estimate by nonparametric regression. The subjective density is estimated nonparametrically too. In this framework, we develop the asymptotic distribution theory of the EPK in the L1 sense. Particularly, to evaluate the overall variation of the pricing kernel, we develop a uniform confidence band of the EPK. Furthermore, as an alternative to the asymptotic approach, we propose a bootstrap confidence band. The developed theory is helpful for testing parametric specifications of pricing kernels and has a direct extension to estimating risk aversion patterns. The established results are assessed and compared in a Monte-Carlo study. As a real application, we test risk aversion over time induced by the EPK.Empirical Pricing Kernel, Confidence band, Bootstrap; Kernel Smoothing; Nonparametric

Intersection Bounds: Estimation and Inference

We develop a practical and novel method for inference on intersection bounds, namely bounds defined by either the infimum or supremum of a parametric or nonparametric function, or equivalently, the value of a linear programming problem with a potentially infinite constraint set. We show that many bounds characterizations in econometrics, for instance bounds on parameters under conditional moment inequalities, can be formulated as intersection bounds. Our approach is especially convenient for models comprised of a continuum of inequalities that are separable in parameters, and also applies to models with inequalities that are non-separable in parameters. Since analog estimators for intersection bounds can be severely biased in finite samples, routinely underestimating the size of the identified set, we also offer a median-bias-corrected estimator of such bounds as a by-product of our inferential procedures. We develop theory for large sample inference based on the strong approximation of a sequence of series or kernel-based empirical processes by a sequence of "penultimate" Gaussian processes. These penultimate processes are generally not weakly convergent, and thus non-Donsker. Our theoretical results establish that we can nonetheless perform asymptotically valid inference based on these processes. Our construction also provides new adaptive inequality/moment selection methods. We provide conditions for the use of nonparametric kernel and series estimators, including a novel result that establishes strong approximation for any general series estimator admitting linearization, which may be of independent interest