From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

USABILITY TESTING OF THE M.A.E.G.U.S. SERIOUS GAME

Interpreting raw data in serious games and simulations can be a time consuming and uninteresting task without visualizations. This study proposes one possible solution for an interface that incorporates data visualizations for Whittinghill and Nataraja\u27s (2013) MAEGUS simulation, a serious game used to increase the retention of wind energy and solar energy concepts in students, while still being fun. After the interface was designed and developed, a think aloud usability test was conducted to answer the following research questions: how do students use a series of information visualizations to operate a multi-variate game-based simulation and what are some the usability issues the students face in the simulation? A thematic analysis was then conducted to document and organize the responses

Last Island: Exploring Transitions to Sustainable Futures through Play

© 2019 Association for Computing Machinery. A serious game was designed and developed with the goal of exploring potential sustainable futures and the transitions towards them. This computer-assisted board game, Last Island, which incorporates a system dynamics model into a board game's core mechanics, attempts to impart knowledge and understanding on sustainability and how an isolated society may transition to various futures to a non-expert community of players. To this end, this collaborativecompetitive game utilizes the Miniworld model which simulates three variables important for the sustainability of a society: Human population, economic production and the state of the environment. The resulting player interaction offers possibilities to collectively discover and validate potential scenarios for transitioning to a sustainable future, encouraging players to work together to balance the model output while also competing on individual objectives to be the individual winner of the game

Scenario Generation with Cellular Automaton for Game-based Crisis Simulation System

Crisis is infrequent and unpredictable event which is challenging to prepare and resolve. Scenario generation for modeling a crisis using computational approach is preferable due to its flexibility to produce automated variation of scenario based on different setup key factors. Combining crisis generation with game technology, serious-game game can be developed to provide potential support in training and simulation practice of real-world crisis situation to different stakeholders. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a computational framework to provide automated generation of a fire crisis scenario with firefighter-agent simulation using cellular automaton with influence map for agent behavior optimization, and visualization using a 3D game engine. The framework is evaluated based on performance, convergence and realistic behavior of both crisis event (e.g. fire propagation or control) and crisis resolution (e.g. firefighter solving the crisis)

A Research Approach to Study Human Factors in Transportation Systems

This thesis proposes a new general-purpose methodology to conduct studies on Human Factors in Transportation Systems.A full-fledged setup and implementation of the methodology is provided for validation. This setup, which uses real data to perform the simulation, includes a traffic micro-simulator, a driving simulator, a traffic control centre and an Advanced Driver Assistance System, providing an experimentation laboratory, in which empirical research can be conducted. The communication between the simulation components is made interchangeably using both the European standard Datex II and the SUMO TraCI protocols.Several usage scenarios are implemented and indications on how to extend the methodology to accommodate different requirements are provided; as to prove its usability and feasibility. A simple Human Factors study was conducted using the implemented setup. This study uses naturalistc data and evaluates the network performance gain by using an Advanced Driver Assistance System that recommends new routes to drivers in congestion situations and provides a final validation of the methodology.In conclusion, the methodology has been proved usable to effectively conduct Human Factors research and also to develop Advanced Driver Assistance Systems applications in a controlled, yet realistic environment.This thesis proposes a new general-purpose methodology to conduct studies on Human Factors in Transportation Systems.A full-fledged setup and implementation of the methodology is provided for validation. This setup, which uses real data to perform the simulation, includes a traffic micro-simulator, a driving simulator, a traffic control centre and an Advanced Driver Assistance System, providing an experimentation laboratory, in which empirical research can be conducted. The communication between the simulation components is made interchangeably using both the European standard Datex II and the SUMO TraCI protocols.Several usage scenarios are implemented and indications on how to extend the methodology to accommodate different requirements are provided; as to prove its usability and feasibility. A simple Human Factors study was conducted using the implemented setup. This study uses naturalistc data and evaluates the network performance gain by using an Advanced Driver Assistance System that recommends new routes to drivers in congestion situations and provides a final validation of the methodology.In conclusion, the methodology has been proved usable to effectively conduct Human Factors research and also to develop Advanced Driver Assistance Systems applications in a controlled, yet realistic environment

Implementing sustainability in product portfolio development through digitalization and a game-based approach

The aim of this research is to explore if and how digitalization and a game-based approach can improve the usability and implementation of sustainable design methods and tools in a product development process. Based on semi-systematic literature review, advantages and limitations of digitalization and game-based approaches in this context were identified. A previously developed method that guides the implementation of a strategic sustainability perspective in product portfolio development, was then selected and elements of digitalization and game-based approaches were incorporated in its four building blocks: double-flow scenario modeling, sustainability assessment, market success assessment, and portfolio development. The resulting prototype of this method was further adapted after feedback gathered through expert interviews and then tested in workshops with industry and academia. It was found that digitalization was especially useful for the scenario simulation, data management, and automatic visualization of results, while the benefits of the game-based approach were enhanced motivation, collaboration, and co-design of results and solutions. At the same time, drawbacks were discovered, for example related to decreased transparency of how results are calculated, overuse of visualization and extrinsic rewards, leading to lack of clarity and trust in the results. In conclusion, there are synergies between digitalization and game-based approaches that can improve the usability of sustainable design methods and tools, but extensive testing is recommended to avoid pitfalls that can lead to opposite effects. Moreover, recommendations were identified for how to include digitalization and a game-based approach, for example, to enable integration with other tools, maintenance and constant update, to explore the benefits of team-based assessments and collaboration, to add diversity and customization, and to link the game to the user\u27s context, application, expectations and requirements

A Systemic Approach to Next Generation Infrastructure Data Elicitation and Planning Using Serious Gaming Methods

Infrastructure systems are vital to the functioning of our society and economy. However, these systems are increasingly complex and are more interdependent than ever, making them difficult to manage. In order to respond to increasing demand, environmental concerns, and natural and man-made threats, infrastructure systems have to adapt and transform. Traditional engineering design approaches and planning tools have proven to be inadequate when planning and managing these complex socio-technical system transitions. The design and implementation of next generation infrastructure systems require holistic methodologies, encompassing organizational and societal aspects in addition to technical factors. In order to do so, a serious gaming based risk assessment methodology is developed to assist infrastructure data elicitation and planning. The methodology combines the use of various models, commercial-off-the-shelf solutions and a gaming approach to aggregate the inputs of various subject matter experts (SMEs) to predict future system characteristics. The serious gaming based approach enables experts to obtain a thorough understanding of the complexity and interdependency of the system while offering a platform to experiment with various strategies and scenarios. In order to demonstrate its abilities, the methodology was applied to National Airspace System (NAS) overhaul and its transformation to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The implemented methodology yielded a comprehensive safety assessment and data generation mechanism, embracing the social and technical aspects of the NAS transformation for the next 15 years

From social simulation to integrative system design

Abstract.: The purpose of this White Paper of the EU Support Action "Visioneer” (see www.visioneer.ethz.ch) is to address the following goals: 1.Develop strategies to build up social simulation capacities.2.Suggest ways to build up an "artificial societies” community that aims at simulating real and alternative societies by means of supercomputers, grid or cloud computing.3.Derive proposals to establish centers for integrative systems desig

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2012

Proceedings of the 6th Annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Student Capstone Conference held on April 19, 2012 at VMASC in Suffolk, Virginia