Decision support for firm performance by real options analytics

This paper develops a real options decision support tool for raising the performance of the firm. It shows how entrepreneurs can use our intuitive tool quickly to assess the nature and type of action required for improved performance. This exploits our estimated econometric relationship between precipitators of entrepreneurial opportunities, time until exercise, and firm performance. Our 3D chromaticity plots show how staging investments, investment time, and firm performance support entrepreneurial decisions to embed, or to expedite, investments. Speedy entrepreneurial action is securely supported with this tool, without expertise in econometric estimation or in formulae for real options valuation

Considerations for Cross Domain / Mission Resource Allocation and Replanning

NPS NRP Technical ReportNaval platforms are inherently multi-mission - they execute a variety of missions simultaneously. Ships, submarines, and aircraft support multiple missions across domains, such as integrated air and missile defense, ballistic missile defense, anti-submarine warfare, strike operations, naval fires in support of ground operations, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Scheduling and position of these multi-mission platforms is problematic since one warfare area commander desires one position and schedule, while another may have a completely different approach. Commanders struggle to decide and adjudicate these conflicts, because there is plenty of uncertainty about the enemy and the environment. This project will explore emerging innovative data analytic technologies to optimize naval resource allocation and replanning across mission domains. NPS proposes a study that will evaluate the following three solution concepts for this application: (1) game theory, (2) machine learning, and (3) wargaming. The study will first identify a set of operational scenarios that involve distributed and diverse naval platforms and resources and a threat situation that requires multiple concurrent missions in multiple domains. The NPS team will use these scenarios to evaluate the three solution concepts and their applicability to supporting resource allocation and replanning. This project will provide valuable insights into innovative data analytic solution concepts to tackle the Navy's challenge of conducing multiple missions with cross-domain resources.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Operational Research: Methods and Applications

Throughout its history, Operational Research has evolved to include a variety of methods, models and algorithms that have been applied to a diverse and wide range of contexts. This encyclopedic article consists of two main sections: methods and applications. The first aims to summarise the up-to-date knowledge and provide an overview of the state-of-the-art methods and key developments in the various subdomains of the field. The second offers a wide-ranging list of areas where Operational Research has been applied. The article is meant to be read in a nonlinear fashion. It should be used as a point of reference or first-port-of-call for a diverse pool of readers: academics, researchers, students, and practitioners. The entries within the methods and applications sections are presented in alphabetical order. The authors dedicate this paper to the 2023 Turkey/Syria earthquake victims. We sincerely hope that advances in OR will play a role towards minimising the pain and suffering caused by this and future catastrophes

Digital Twins for Ports: Derived from Smart City and Supply Chain Twinning Experience

Ports are striving for innovative technological solutions to cope with the ever-increasing growth of transport, while at the same time improving their environmental footprint. An emerging technology that has the potential to substantially increase the efficiency of the multifaceted and interconnected port processes is the digital twin. Although digital twins have been successfully integrated in many industries, there is still a lack of cross-domain understanding of what constitutes a digital twin. Furthermore, the implementation of the digital twin in complex systems such as the port is still in its infancy. This paper attempts to fill this research gap by conducting an extensive cross-domain literature review of what constitutes a digital twin, keeping in mind the extent to which the respective findings can be applied to the port. It turns out that the digital twin of the port is most comparable to complex systems such as smart cities and supply chains, both in terms of its functional relevance as well as in terms of its requirements and characteristics. The conducted literature review, considering the different port processes and port characteristics, results in the identification of three core requirements of a digital port twin, which are described in detail. These include situational awareness, comprehensive data analytics capabilities for intelligent decision making, and the provision of an interface to promote multi-stakeholder governance and collaboration. Finally, specific operational scenarios are proposed on how the port's digital twin can contribute to energy savings by improving the use of port resources, facilities and operations.Comment: This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication. Copyright may be transferred without notice, after which this version may no longer be accessibl

Incorporating intelligence-led policing in integrated cross-border maritime law enforcement operations in British Columbia

British Columbia shares a southern maritime border with Washington State that bisects the Gulf Islands from the San Juan Islands. The RCMP is responsible for the maritime border security between ports of entry. Challenges to maritime border enforcement include a lack of marine domain awareness, globalization, terrorism, transnational organized crime and drug trafficking, criminal networks, and jurisdictional issues. The RCMP have partnered with the US Coast Guard to enforce cross-border criminality in a program called the Integrated Cross-border Maritime Law Enforcement Operations Act (ICMLEO), also referred to as Shiprider. The Shiprider program was implemented under the standard model of policing. By gathering and utilizing better information, adapting an intelligence-led approach, and leveraging technology, the Shiprider program could become more efficacious

Game Theory and Prescriptive Analytics for Naval Wargaming Battle Management Aids

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy is taking advantage of advances in computational technologies and data analytic methods to automate and enhance tactical decisions and support warfighters in highly complex combat environments. Novel automated techniques offer opportunities to support the tactical warfighter through enhanced situational awareness, automated reasoning and problem-solving, and faster decision timelines. This study will investigate how game theory and prescriptive analytics methods can be used to develop real-time wargaming capabilities to support warfighters in their ability to explore and evaluate the possible consequences of different tactical COAs to improve tactical missions. This study will develop a conceptual design of a real-time tactical wargaming capability. This study will explore data analytic methods including game theory, prescriptive analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate their potential to support real-time wargaming.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Operational Research: Methods and Applications

Throughout its history, Operational Research has evolved to include a variety of methods, models and algorithms that have been applied to a diverse and wide range of contexts. This encyclopedic article consists of two main sections: methods and applications. The first aims to summarise the up-to-date knowledge and provide an overview of the state-of-the-art methods and key developments in the various subdomains of the field. The second offers a wide-ranging list of areas where Operational Research has been applied. The article is meant to be read in a nonlinear fashion. It should be used as a point of reference or first-port-of-call for a diverse pool of readers: academics, researchers, students, and practitioners. The entries within the methods and applications sections are presented in alphabetical order