A rigorous statistical framework for spatio-temporal pollution prediction and estimation of its long-term impact on health

In the United Kingdom, air pollution is linked to around 40000 premature deaths each year, but estimating its health effects is challenging in a spatio-temporal study. The challenges include spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data; uncertainty in the estimated pollution surface; and complex residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the disease data. This article develops a two-stage model that addresses these issues. The first stage is a spatio-temporal fusion model linking modeled and measured pollution data, while the second stage links these predictions to the disease data. The methodology is motivated by a new five-year study investigating the effects of multiple pollutants on respiratory hospitalizations in England between 2007 and 2011, using pollution and disease data relating to local and unitary authorities on a monthly time scale

Risk Equity: A New Proposal

What does distributive justice require of risk regulators? Various executive orders enjoin health and safety regulators to take account of “distributive impacts,” “equity,” or “environmental justice,” and many scholars endorse these requirements. But concrete methodologies for evaluating the equity effects of risk regulation policies remain undeveloped. The contrast with cost-benefit analysis--now a very well developed set of techniques --is stark. Equity analysis by governmental agencies that regulate health and safety risks, at least in the United States, lacks rigor and structure. This Article proposes a rigorous framework for risk-equity analysis, which I term “probabilistic population profile analysis” (PPPA). PPPA is both novel, yet firmly grounded in the social-welfare-function tradition in welfare economics. The PPPA framework conceptualizes both the status quo, and possible policies, as probability distributions across population profiles -- where each population profile is, in turn, a concatenation of lifetime health-longevity-income histories, one for each member of the population. A utility function transforms each such profile into a utility vector. An equity-regarding social welfare function (SWF) is then specified. Policy analysts can employ the equity-regarding SWF both (1) to determine how policies compare purely as a matter of equality; and (2) to determine how they compare all-things-considered, considering both equality and overall welfare. The proposal may seem utopian, but is not. Scholars in the field of optimal tax policy already use SWFs to evaluate policies. Characterizing policies as distributions across population health-longevity-income profiles builds on existing risk assessment and general-equilibrium-modeling techniques. Utility functions can be specified through survey research and, in the interim, by building on standard functional forms. Plausible normative axioms considerably narrow the possible forms of the SWF, and survey research or thought experiments narrow the field further. Part I of the Article describes and criticizes existing approaches to risk equity that have been proposed in the scholarly literature: the environmental justice conception of risk equity; “individual risk” approaches; QALY-based equity analysis; incidence analysis; inclusive equality measurement; and cost-benefit analysis with distributive weights. Part II describes and defends PPPA. PPPA has many virtues. It recognizes that well-being is multidimensional, a function of both income and health/longevity; furnishes a metric for inequality; provides a framework for making tradeoffs between equality and overall well-being; and understands that distributive justice includes (but is not limited to) inequalities between high and low-status social groups

Future challenges to microbial food safety

Despite significant efforts by all parties involved, there is still a considerable burden of foodborne illness, in which micro-organisms play a prominent role. Microbes can enter the food chain at different steps, are highly versatile and can adapt to the environment allowing survival, growth and production of toxic compounds. This sets them apart from chemical agents and thus their study from food toxicology. We summarize the discussions of a conference organized by the Dutch Food and Consumer Products Safety Authority and the European Food Safety Authority. The goal of the conference was to discuss new challenges to food safety that are caused by micro-organisms as well as strategies and methodologies to counter these. Management of food safety is based on generally accepted principles of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points and of Good Manufacturing Practices. However, a more pro-active, science-based approach is required, starting with the ability to predict where problems might arise by applying the risk analysis framework. Developments that may influence food safety in the future occur on different scales (from global to molecular) and in different time frames (from decades to less than a minute). This necessitates development of new risk assessment approaches, taking the impact of different drivers of change into account. We provide an overview of drivers that may affect food safety and their potential impact on foodborne pathogens and human disease risks. We conclude that many drivers may result in increased food safety risks, requiring active governmental policy setting and anticipation by food industries whereas other drivers may decrease food safety risks. Monitoring of contamination in the food chain, combined with surveillance of human illness and epidemiological investigations of outbreaks and sporadic cases continue to be important sources of information. New approaches in human illness surveillance include the use of molecular markers for improved outbreak detection and source attribution, sero-epidemiology and disease burden estimation. Current developments in molecular techniques make it possible to rapidly assemble information on the genome of various isolates of microbial species of concern. Such information can be used to develop new tracking and tracing methods, and to investigate the behavior of micro-organisms under environmentally relevant stress conditions. These novel tools and insight need to be applied to objectives for food safety strategies, as well as to models that predict microbial behavior. In addition, the increasing complexity of the global food systems necessitates improved communication between all parties involved: scientists, risk assessors and risk managers, as well as consumer

Prioritizing Opportunities to Reduce the Risk of Foodborne Illness: A Conceptual Framework

Determining the best use of food safety resources is a difficult task faced by public policymakers, regulatory agencies, state and local food safety and health agencies, as well as private firms. The Food Safety Research Consortium (FSRC) has developed a conceptual framework for priority setting and resource allocation for food safety that takes full account of the food system’s complexity and available data but is simple enough to be workable and of practical value to decisionmakers. The conceptual framework addresses the question of how societal resources, both public and private, can be used most effectively to reduce the public health burden of foodborne illness by quantitatively ranking risks and considering the availability, effectiveness, and cost of interventions to address these risks. We identify two types of priority-setting decisions: Purpose 1 priority setting that guides risk-based allocation of food safety resources, primarily by government food safety agencies, across a wide range of opportunities to reduce the public health impact of foodborne illness; and Purpose 2 priority setting that guides the choice of risk management actions and strategies with respect to particular hazards and commodities. It is essential that such a framework be grounded in a systems approach, multi-disciplinary in approach and integration of data, practical, flexible, and dynamic by including ongoing evaluation and continuous updating of risk rankings and other elements. The conceptual framework is a synthesis of ideas and information generated in connection with and during the three FSRC workshops convened under a project funded by the Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service of USDA. Workshop materials are available on the project website: http://www.card.iastate.edu/food_safety/.

Presymptomatic risk assessment for chronic non-communicable diseases

The prevalence of common chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs) far overshadows the prevalence of both monogenic and infectious diseases combined. All CNCDs, also called complex genetic diseases, have a heritable genetic component that can be used for pre-symptomatic risk assessment. Common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that tag risk haplotypes across the genome currently account for a non-trivial portion of the germ-line genetic risk and we will likely continue to identify the remaining missing heritability in the form of rare variants, copy number variants and epigenetic modifications. Here, we describe a novel measure for calculating the lifetime risk of a disease, called the genetic composite index (GCI), and demonstrate its predictive value as a clinical classifier. The GCI only considers summary statistics of the effects of genetic variation and hence does not require the results of large-scale studies simultaneously assessing multiple risk factors. Combining GCI scores with environmental risk information provides an additional tool for clinical decision-making. The GCI can be populated with heritable risk information of any type, and thus represents a framework for CNCD pre-symptomatic risk assessment that can be populated as additional risk information is identified through next-generation technologies.Comment: Plos ONE paper. Previous version was withdrawn to be updated by the journal's pdf versio

Environmental Risk Analysis: Problems and Perspectives in Different Countries

The authors discuss various industrial accidents, which have led to growing concerns about the potential hazards and risks involved in chemical process industries