Modeling Individual Cyclic Variation in Human Behavior

Cycles are fundamental to human health and behavior. However, modeling cycles in time series data is challenging because in most cases the cycles are not labeled or directly observed and need to be inferred from multidimensional measurements taken over time. Here, we present CyHMMs, a cyclic hidden Markov model method for detecting and modeling cycles in a collection of multidimensional heterogeneous time series data. In contrast to previous cycle modeling methods, CyHMMs deal with a number of challenges encountered in modeling real-world cycles: they can model multivariate data with discrete and continuous dimensions; they explicitly model and are robust to missing data; and they can share information across individuals to model variation both within and between individual time series. Experiments on synthetic and real-world health-tracking data demonstrate that CyHMMs infer cycle lengths more accurately than existing methods, with 58% lower error on simulated data and 63% lower error on real-world data compared to the best-performing baseline. CyHMMs can also perform functions which baselines cannot: they can model the progression of individual features/symptoms over the course of the cycle, identify the most variable features, and cluster individual time series into groups with distinct characteristics. Applying CyHMMs to two real-world health-tracking datasets -- of menstrual cycle symptoms and physical activity tracking data -- yields important insights including which symptoms to expect at each point during the cycle. We also find that people fall into several groups with distinct cycle patterns, and that these groups differ along dimensions not provided to the model. For example, by modeling missing data in the menstrual cycles dataset, we are able to discover a medically relevant group of birth control users even though information on birth control is not given to the model.Comment: Accepted at WWW 201

Method of Forming Recommendations Using Temporal Constraints in a Situation of Cyclic Cold Start of the Recommender System

The problem of the formation of the recommended list of items in the situation of cyclic cold start of the recommendation system is considered. This problem occurs when building recommendations for occasional users. The interests of such consumers change significantly over time. These users are considered “cold” when accessing the recommendation system. A method for building recommendations in a cyclical cold start situation using temporal constraints is proposed. Temporal constraints are formed on the basis of the selection of repetitive pairs of actions for choosing the same objects at a given level of time granulation. Input data is represented by a set of user choice records. For each entry, a time stamp is indicated. The method includes the phases of the formation of temporal constraints, the addition of source data using these constraints, as well as the formation of recommendations using the collaborative filtering algorithm. The proposed method makes it possible, with the help of temporal constraints, to improve the accuracy of recommendations for “cold” users with periodic changes in their interests

Synchronization in complex networks

Synchronization processes in populations of locally interacting elements are in the focus of intense research in physical, biological, chemical, technological and social systems. The many efforts devoted to understand synchronization phenomena in natural systems take now advantage of the recent theory of complex networks. In this review, we report the advances in the comprehension of synchronization phenomena when oscillating elements are constrained to interact in a complex network topology. We also overview the new emergent features coming out from the interplay between the structure and the function of the underlying pattern of connections. Extensive numerical work as well as analytical approaches to the problem are presented. Finally, we review several applications of synchronization in complex networks to different disciplines: biological systems and neuroscience, engineering and computer science, and economy and social sciences.Comment: Final version published in Physics Reports. More information available at http://synchronets.googlepages.com

An Emergent Space for Distributed Data with Hidden Internal Order through Manifold Learning

Manifold-learning techniques are routinely used in mining complex spatiotemporal data to extract useful, parsimonious data representations/parametrizations; these are, in turn, useful in nonlinear model identification tasks. We focus here on the case of time series data that can ultimately be modelled as a spatially distributed system (e.g. a partial differential equation, PDE), but where we do not know the space in which this PDE should be formulated. Hence, even the spatial coordinates for the distributed system themselves need to be identified - to emerge from - the data mining process. We will first validate this emergent space reconstruction for time series sampled without space labels in known PDEs; this brings up the issue of observability of physical space from temporal observation data, and the transition from spatially resolved to lumped (order-parameter-based) representations by tuning the scale of the data mining kernels. We will then present actual emergent space discovery illustrations. Our illustrative examples include chimera states (states of coexisting coherent and incoherent dynamics), and chaotic as well as quasiperiodic spatiotemporal dynamics, arising in partial differential equations and/or in heterogeneous networks. We also discuss how data-driven spatial coordinates can be extracted in ways invariant to the nature of the measuring instrument. Such gauge-invariant data mining can go beyond the fusion of heterogeneous observations of the same system, to the possible matching of apparently different systems

Inference of hidden structures in complex physical systems by multi-scale clustering

We survey the application of a relatively new branch of statistical physics--"community detection"-- to data mining. In particular, we focus on the diagnosis of materials and automated image segmentation. Community detection describes the quest of partitioning a complex system involving many elements into optimally decoupled subsets or communities of such elements. We review a multiresolution variant which is used to ascertain structures at different spatial and temporal scales. Significant patterns are obtained by examining the correlations between different independent solvers. Similar to other combinatorial optimization problems in the NP complexity class, community detection exhibits several phases. Typically, illuminating orders are revealed by choosing parameters that lead to extremal information theory correlations.Comment: 25 pages, 16 Figures; a review of earlier work