Partial International Emission Trading

In a model inspired by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, non-cooperative countries allocate their emissions to internationally trading and non-trading sectors. Each country is better off with trading than without, and aggregate welfare is maximized with all sectors in the trading scheme. We simulate the effects of expanding the trading scheme in a two-country model with quadratic abatement costs. If only the original trading sector is asymmetric between countries, the welfare change is always positive and the same in both countries. If only the additional trading sector is asymmetric, one country might lose, but there is an aggregate welfare gain. If only the non-trading sector is asymmetric, both countries always gain.International emission trading; EU Emission Trading Scheme

Modeling endogenous learning and imperfect competition effects in climate change economics

In this two-part paper we evaluate the effect of "endogenizing” technological learning and strategic behavior of agents in economic models used to assess climate change policies. In the first part we show the potential impact of R&D policies or demonstration and deployment (D&D) programs in the context of stringent stabilization scenarios. In the second part we show how game-theoretic methods can be implemented in climate change economic models to take into account three types of strategic interactions: (i) the market power of the countries benefiting from very low abatement costs on international markets for CO2 emissions, (ii) the strategic behavior of governments in the domestic allocation of CO2 emissions quotas, and (iii) the non-cooperative behavior of countries and regions in the burden sharing of CO2 concentration stabilization. The two topics of endogenous learning and game-theoretic approach to economic modeling are two manifestations of the need to take into account the strategic behavior of agents in the evaluation of climate change policies. In the first case an R&D policy or a demonstration and deployment (D&D) program are put in place in order to attain a cost reduction through the learning effect; in the second case the agents (countries) reply optimally to the actions decided by the other agents by exploiting their strategic advantages. Simulations based on integrated assessment models illustrate the approaches. These studies have been conducted under the Swiss NCCR-Climate progra

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Allowance Prices, Trade Flows, Competitiveness Effects

The upcoming European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is one of the more controversial climate policy instruments. Predictions about its likely impact and its performance can at present only be made to a certain degree. As long as the National Allocations Plans are not finally settled the overall supply of allowances is not determined. In this paper we will identify key features and key impacts of the EU ETS by scanning the range of likely allocation plans using the simulation model DART. The analysis of the simulation results highlights a number of interesting details in terms of allowance trade flows between member countries, of allowance prices, and in terms of the role of the accession countries in the ETS.EU Emissions trading scheme, Kyoto targets, Computable general equilibrium model, DART

Emissions Trading, CDM, JI, and More – The Climate Strategy of the EU

The objective of this paper is to assess the likely allocation effects of the current cli-mate protection strategy as it is laid out in the National Allocation Plans (NAPs) for the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The multi-regional, multi-sectoral CGE-model DART is used to simulate the effects of the current policies in the year 2012 when the Kyoto targets need to be met. Different scenarios are simulated in order to highlight the effects of the grandfathering of permits to energy-intensive installations, the use of the project-based mechanisms (CDM and JI), and the restriction imposed by the supplementarity criterion.Kyoto targets, EU, EU emissions trading scheme, National allocation plans, CDM and JI, Computable general equilibrium model, DART

Economic Implications of Alternative Allocation Schemes for Emission Allowances: A Theoretical and Applied Analysis

Political feasibility of emission trading systems may crucially depend on the free initial allocation of emission allowances to energy-intensive industries in order to ameliorate adverse production and employment effects. We investigate the potential trade-off between such compensation and economic efficiency for alternative allocation rules where emission allowances are based on either emissions or output. Based on analytical partial equilibrium and numerical general equilibrium analysis, we show that in open trading systems the trade-off becomes the more severe, the higher the international permit price is. Whenever the permit price can be considered exogenous to firms or industries, the output-based allocation rule is distinctly less costly than the emission-based rule to preserve output and employment in energy-intensive sectors. The reason is that emission-based allocation of allowances not only provides an implicit output subsidy but also lowers the effective price of emission inputs to regulated firms. Emissionbased allocation is particularly expensive towards higher international permit prices where the implicit subsidies to emission use in energy-intensive sectors produce drastic efficiency losses, since they imply high expenditures for carbon permit imports rather than high net revenues from efficient carbon permit exports. --computable general equilibrium,emissions trading,allowance allocation

Changing the Allocation Rules in the EU ETS: Impact on Competitiveness and Economic Efficiency

We assess five proposals for the future of the EU greenhouse gas Emission Trading Scheme (ETS): pure grandfathering allocation of emission allowances (GF), output-based allocation (OB), auctioning (AU), auctioning with border adjustments (AU-BA), and finally output-based allocation in sectors exposed to international competition combined with auctioning in electricity generation (OB-AU). We look at the impact on production, trade, CO2 leakage and welfare. We use a partial equilibrium model of the EU 27 featuring three sectors covered by the EU ETS – cement, steel and electricity – plus the aluminium sector, which is indirectly impacted through a rise in electricity price. The leakage ratio, i.e. the increase in emissions abroad over the decrease in EU emissions, ranges from around 8% under GF and AU to -2% under AU-BA and varies greatly among sectors. Concerning the overall economic cost, OB appears to be the least efficient policy, even when taking into account its ability to prevent CO2 leakage. On the other hand, this policy minimises production losses and wealth transfers among stakeholders, which is likely to soften oppositions. GF and AU are the most efficient policies from an EU perspective, even when leakage is accounted for. From a world welfare perspective and whatever the emission reductioEmission Trading, Allowance Allocation, Leakage, Spillover, Climate Policy, Kyoto Protocol, Border Adjustment

EU enlargement and environmental policy

The Eastern European Associates (EEA) have committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions according to their targets set in the Kyoto Protocol. Furthermore since 1993 trade liberalization has taken place between all associated countries and the EU. There is meanwhile a large quantitative literature on the economic effects of full integration of the associated countries into the EU as well as on the Kyoto Protocol. However, there is a lack of quantitative research on the linkage of trade and the environment in the context of the EU enlargement. In this paper we analyze the interactions of different environmental policies under the Kyoto Protocol and trade liberalization in the process of eastern enlargement using a computable general equilibrium model. We find that trade liberalization provides large gains for EEAs while it holds only modest gains for EU member states. Integration does not show a significant impact on carbon abatement policies, but mitigates associated welfare losses. --EU enlargement,Kyoto Protocol,computable general equilibrium modeling

Enforcement and Environmental Quality in a Decentralized Emission Trading System

This paper addresses the issue of whether the powers of monitoring compliance and allocating tradeable emissions allowances within a federation of countries should be appointed to a unique federal regulator or decentralized to several local regulators. To this end, we develop a two stage game played by environmental regulator(s) and the polluting industries of two countries. Regulator(s) choose the amount of emission allowances to be issued and set the level of monitoring effort to achieve full compliance, while regulated firms choose actual emissions and the number of permits to be held. We identify various, possibly conflicting, spillovers among states in a decentralized setting. We show that cost advantage in favor of local regulators is not sufficient to justify decentralization. Nevertheless, cost differential in monitoring violations can imply lower emissions and greater welfare under a decentralized institutional setting than under a centralized one. However, while a better environmental quality under decentralization is a sufficient condition for higher welfare under the same regime, it is not also a necessary condition.Emissions Trading, Environmental Federalism, Enforcement, Monitoring Cost

Assessing the impact of the EU ETS using firm level data.

· This paper investigates the impact of the European Union’s Emission Trading System (EU ETS) at a firm level. Using panel data on the emissions and performance of more than 2000 European firms from 2005 to 2008, we are able to analyse the effectiveness of the scheme. · The results suggest that the shift from the first phase (2005-2007) to the second phase (2008-2012) had an impact on the emission reductions carried out by firms. The initial allocation also had a significant impact on emission reduction. This challenges the relevance for the ETS of Coase’s theorem (Coase, 1969), according to which the initial allocation of permits is irrelevant for the post-trading allocation of marketable pollution permits. · Finally, we found that the EU ETS had a modest impact on the participating companies’ performance. We conclude that a full auctioning system could help to reduce emissions but could also have a negative impact on the profits of participating companies.panel data, energy, climate change, evaluation econometrics, firm behaviour.

Designing an emissions trading scheme for China - an up‐to‐date climate policy assessment

We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi‐region, multi‐sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy‐ induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business‐as‐usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China’s annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy‐induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU’s reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely