86,475 research outputs found
Generalized basic probability assignments
Dempster-Shafer theory allows to construct belief functions from (precise) basic probability assignments. The present paper extends this idea substantially. By considering SETS of basic probability assignments, an appealing constructive approach to general interval probability (general imprecise probabilities) is achieved, which allows for a very flexible modelling of uncertain knowledge
Comparing stochastic design decision belief models : pointwise versus interval probabilities.
Decision support systems can either directly support a product designer or support an agent operating within a multi-agent system (MAS). Stochastic based decision support systems require an underlying belief model that encodes domain knowledge. The underlying supporting belief model has traditionally been a probability distribution function (PDF) which uses pointwise probabilities for all possible outcomes. This can present a challenge during the knowledge elicitation process. To overcome this, it is proposed to test the performance of a credal set belief model. Credal sets (sometimes also referred to as p-boxes) use interval probabilities rather than pointwise probabilities and therefore are more easier to elicit from domain experts. The PDF and credal set belief models are compared using a design domain MAS which is able to learn, and thereby refine, the belief model based on its experience. The outcome of the experiment illustrates that there is no significant difference between the PDF based and credal set based belief models in the performance of the MAS
Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties
We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to
uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which
are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale
variations. We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial
hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty
in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the
series. We compare its outcome to the conventional uncertainty estimates in the
simple case of the calculation of QCD corrections to the e+e- -> hadrons
process. We find comparable results, but with important conceptual differences.
This work represents a first step in the direction of a more comprehensive and
rigorous handling of theoretical uncertainties in perturbative calculations
used in high energy phenomenology.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figures. Language modified in order to make it more
'bayesian'. No change in results. Version published in JHE
A novel planning approach for the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) sector: the use of object-oriented bayesian networks
Conventional approaches to design and plan water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) interventions are not suitable for capturing the increasing complexity of the context in which these services are delivered. Multidimensional tools are needed to unravel the links between access to basic services and the socio-economic drivers of poverty. This paper applies an object-oriented Bayesian network to reflect the main issues that determine access to WaSH services. A national Program in Kenya has been analyzed as initial case study. The main findings suggest that the proposed approach is able to accommodate local conditions and to represent an accurate reflection of the complexities of WaSH issues, incorporating the uncertainty intrinsic to service delivery processes. Results indicate those areas in which policy makers should prioritize efforts and resources. Similarly, the study shows the effects of sector interventions, as well as the foreseen impact of various scenarios related to the national Program.Preprin
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