A theory of human error

Human errors tend to be treated in terms of clinical and anecdotal descriptions, from which remedial measures are difficult to derive. Correction of the sources of human error requires an attempt to reconstruct underlying and contributing causes of error from the circumstantial causes cited in official investigative reports. A comprehensive analytical theory of the cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error is indispensable to a reconstruction of the underlying and contributing causes. A validated analytical theory of the input-output behavior of human operators involving manual control, communication, supervisory, and monitoring tasks which are relevant to aviation, maritime, automotive, and process control operations is highlighted. This theory of behavior, both appropriate and inappropriate, provides an insightful basis for investigating, classifying, and quantifying the needed cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error

A theory of cross-validation error

This paper presents a theory of error in cross-validation testing of algorithms for predicting real-valued attributes. The theory justifies the claim that predicting real-valued attributes requires balancing the conflicting demands of simplicity and accuracy. Furthermore, the theory indicates precisely how these conflicting demands must be balanced, in order to minimize cross-validation error. A general theory is presented, then it is developed in detail for linear regression and instance-based learning

Why Queerness is not enough

Moral error theorists often claim to be strongly anti‑metaphysical in their moral scepticism and atheistic naturalists. This paper argues that pre‑ cisely this becomes a problem for them, when their metaethical and ontologi‑ cal commitments clash. I first outline how the known arguments against error theory face a problematic, yet rarely considered trade‑off : either they are very strong, then they are also very demanding in their assumptions or they are less demanding in their assumptions but rather weak in their conclusions. In re‑ sponse to this challenge I then develop a new argument against error theory that exploits an overlooked inconsistency in the error theorists’ standard line of argumentation. I conclude that the implications of this inconsistency are less of a problem for fictionalist error theorists, but will render any eliminativism based on error theory circular

A flexible error estimate for the application of centre manifold theory

In applications of centre manifold theory we need more flexible error estimates than that provided by, for example, the Approximation Theorem 3 by Carr [4, 6]. Here we extend the theory to cover the case where the order of approximation in parameters and that in dynamical variables may be completely different. This allows, for example, the effective evaluation of low-dimensional dynamical models at finite parameter values

An Introduction to Quantum Error Correction and Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computation

Quantum states are very delicate, so it is likely some sort of quantum error correction will be necessary to build reliable quantum computers. The theory of quantum error-correcting codes has some close ties to and some striking differences from the theory of classical error-correcting codes. Many quantum codes can be described in terms of the stabilizer of the codewords. The stabilizer is a finite Abelian group, and allows a straightforward characterization of the error-correcting properties of the code. The stabilizer formalism for quantum codes also illustrates the relationships to classical coding theory, particularly classical codes over GF(4), the finite field with four elements. To build a quantum computer which behaves correctly in the presence of errors, we also need a theory of fault-tolerant quantum computation, instructing us how to perform quantum gates on qubits which are encoded in a quantum error-correcting code. The threshold theorem states that it is possible to create a quantum computer to perform an arbitrary quantum computation provided the error rate per physical gate or time step is below some constant threshold value.Comment: 46 pages, with large margins. Includes quant-ph/0004072 plus 30 pages of new material, mostly on fault-toleranc

When is an error not a prediction error? An electrophysiological investigation

A recent theory holds that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) uses reinforcement learning signals conveyed by the midbrain dopamine system to facilitate flexible action selection. According to this position, the impact of reward prediction error signals on ACC modulates the amplitude of a component of the event-related brain potential called the error-related negativity (ERN). The theory predicts that ERN amplitude is monotonically related to the expectedness of the event: It is larger for unexpected outcomes than for expected outcomes. However, a recent failure to confirm this prediction has called the theory into question. In the present article, we investigated this discrepancy in three trial-and-error learning experiments. All three experiments provided support for the theory, but the effect sizes were largest when an optimal response strategy could actually be learned. This observation suggests that ACC utilizes dopamine reward prediction error signals for adaptive decision making when the optimal behavior is, in fact, learnable

Error structures and parameter estimation

This article proposes a link between statistics and the theory of Dirichlet forms used to compute errors. The error calculus based on Dirichlet forms is an extension of classical Gauss' approach to error propagation. The aim of this paper is to derive error structures from measurements. The links with Fisher's information lay the foundations of a strong connection with experiment. We show that this connection behaves well towards changes of variables and is related to the theory of asymptotic statistics