Toward a theory of complexity escalation and collapse for system of systems

In this paper we urge the creation of new managerial tools and techniques that are relevant to the complexity of today’s system of systems (SOS). Normal modes of command and control systems cannot be effective under conditions where new constraints are added on a recurrent basis to the system of systems in response to emergent problems within the systems due to increased coupling introduced in component elements of the SOS. We present a first-step understanding of why unanticipated failures find more potential and more pathways to their occurrence when interventions in SOS operations, standards or processes are conducted without enough insight and without a care for basic laws of complexity. We then demonstrate a condition where the incremental changes actually lead to failure of the SOS to meet its performance parameters. We hope that this work set the foundation for exploring the effects of coupling across hierarchical levels of SOS

The First World Trade Center Project: A Historical Tribute to a Great Mega Project

The tragic collapse of the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001 could not erase the memory of one of the most successful projects in history. The project set standards of excellence in project management for years to come. Using a retrospective look at the construction management of the WTC during the 1960s and 1970s, we show how the vision of great leadership and a determined organization transformed the economy of one of the most important cities in the world

Transforming New Zealand Employment Relations: At the Intersection of Institutional Dispute Resolution and Workplace Conflict Management

In New Zealand, the contemporary shift from highly regulated, collectivist employment rights to individual employment relationships included statutory direction to mediation. Good faith negotiation in the workplace and state provision of mediation were to be the primary mechanisms for resolution of ‘employment relationship problems’ (ERP). This paper investigates the intersection between workplace conflict management and institutional provision of mediation. We investigated ERP resolution by drawing on empirical evidence from 38 narrative interviews where participants recounted experiences of employment relationship problem (ERP) resolution. We analysed 243 ERP by comparing settlements to end employment relationships with resolution of ERP where relationships endured. We sought to understand why some ERP remained unresolved and/or escalated. We found that collaborative reflective sense-making had a positive impact on early workplace problem resolution while investigation and confidential settlement negotiations risked injustice. We present, therefore, some suggestions for embedding collaborative conflict management in the workplace

How does militant violence diffuse in regions? Regional conflict systems in international relations and peace and conflict studies

Regional conflict systems are characterised by their complexity of actors, causes, structural conditions and dynamics. Such complexity poses difficulties to those looking to undertake scientific analysis of the regional dynamics of violence. It is still quite unclear how militant violence diffuses in regions and under which conditions a regional conflict system can emerge. This review of existing approaches to regional conflict dynamics in international studies and peace and conflict studies focuses on how the regional conflict dynamics and the causal mechanisms behind the development of regional conflict systems are dealt with, considering process dynamics in space and time as well as in the interactions between possible causal factors. The primary gaps in existing research are identified and possible new research directions sketched out.Regional conflict systems are characterised by their complexity of actors, causes, structural conditions and dynamics. Such complexity, however, poses difficulties to those looking to undertake scientific analysis of these processes. In the present paper existing approaches to regional conflict dynamics in international studies and peace and conflict studies are reviewed. Of particular interest is the question how these approaches dealt with regional violence in areas with limited or no statehood as this is one of the striking conditions for the emergence and diffusion of regional conflict systems. Starting from this question, the main research gaps that exist in the current literature on regional conflicts will be detected. Furthermore, new research directions will be pointed out

Global Risks 2015, 10th Edition.

The 2015 edition of the Global Risks report completes a decade of highlighting the most significant long-term risks worldwide, drawing on the perspectives of experts and global decision-makers. Over that time, analysis has moved from risk identification to thinking through risk interconnections and the potentially cascading effects that result. Taking this effort one step further, this year's report underscores potential causes as well as solutions to global risks. Not only do we set out a view on 28 global risks in the report's traditional categories (economic, environmental, societal, geopolitical and technological) but also we consider the drivers of those risks in the form of 13 trends. In addition, we have selected initiatives for addressing significant challenges, which we hope will inspire collaboration among business, government and civil society communitie

Varieties of System Transformations and Their Structural Background Based on the IPS Model

This study is the theoretical chapter of a planned book. This book, aims to contribute to the theoretical foundations of similarities and differences in the transformation of party-state systems. Analytical framework of system transformation is based on the extension of the Interactive Party State model (Csan di, 2006) where specifics of the structure and operation of party-state systems and structural background of their disparities were described and analyzed. Self-similarities and disparities of transformation and path-dependency of the variety of systemic outcomes are assigned to structural characteristics of power distribution of party-state systems interpreted as networks. The empirical part of the book uses the Chinese case to test this theory, measuring the dynamics of system transformation, the consequences of short- and long-term external adaptation pressures on the system transformation and long-term consequences of the short-term reactions to these pressures and their spatial disparities. This research was supported by the National Research Foundation in Hungary.system transformation, economic transformation political transformation, sequence of transformation, disparities of transformation, varieties of system outcomes, party-state network

Power, competition, and the nature of history

AbstractHistorians have debated whether pathways and events from the past to the present are influenced largely by contingency, the dependence of outcomes on particular prior conditions, or whether there is long-term emergent directional change. Previous arguments for predictability in evolutionary history relied on the high frequency of convergence, but the repeated evolution of widely favored adaptations need not imply long-term directionality. Using evidence from the fossil record and arguments concerning the metabolic evolution of organisms, I show here that power (total energy taken up and expended per unit time) has increased stepwise over time at ecosystem-level and global scales thanks to the ratchet-like, cumulative effects of competition and cooperation and to the disproportionate influence of powerful top competitors and opportunistic species on emergent ecosystem properties and processes. The history of life therefore exhibits emergent directionality at large ecosystem-wide scales toward greater power