A generic tool to assess impact of changing edit rules in a business survey - an application to the UK Annual Business Inquiry part 2

Business surveys often use complex sets of edit rules (edits, for short) to check returned questionnaires (records), locate suspicious or unacceptable responses, and support data cleaning operations prior to using the survey responses for estimation of the required target parameters. These sets of edits are complex because they may involve large numbers of survey questionnaires and variables, they may contain a large number of edits, and the edits may depend on a large number of tolerance parameters. When such sets of edits are used, they may cause large numbers of record failures and generate substantial costs of revision, especially if edit failures are dealt with by means of clerical operations, like reviewing original paper questionnaires or digital images of these, and re-contacting businesses for clarification and/or correction of the responses provided. Costs can be high both in terms of the resources required, as well as in terms of timeliness of survey processing, by delaying availability of the survey data for estimation and publication.In this paper we describe a generic tool, developed as a result of the collaboration between the University of Southampton and the ONS. This tool can help to assess the potential impact of changing the edits in a specified business survey. It is a SAS macro using the IML language which enables calculation of a number of edit performance and data quality indicators. Changes to the set of edits aiming to ‘relax’ the existing edits so that failure rates decrease and efficiency savings are achieved are assessed by means of several edit-related performance indicators, like failure and hit rates, false hit rates, etc.. Data quality indicators include proportion of errors missed and estimates of the bias resulting from missing errors for a specified revision of the set of edits. Edit designers and managers can then aim to fine tune their edits so that failure rates, false hit rates and editing costs are reduced, while data quality is preserved. An illustration is provided by the application of the tool to revise the edits used for the UK Annual Business Inquiry Part 2 to the reference year 2007

The discreet charm of higgsino dark matter - a pocket review

We give a brief review of the current constraints and prospects for detection of higgsino dark matter in low-scale supersymmetry. In the first part we argue, after performing a survey of all potential dark matter particles in the MSSM, that the (nearly) pure higgsino is the only candidate emerging virtually unscathed from the wealth of observational data of recent years. In doing so by virtue of its gauge quantum numbers and electroweak symmetry breaking only, it maintains at the same time a relatively high degree of model-independence. In the second part we properly review the prospects for detection of a higgsino-like neutralino in direct underground dark matter searches, collider searches, and indirect astrophysical signals. We provide estimates for the typical scale of the superpartners and fine tuning in the context of traditional scenarios where the breaking of supersymmetry is mediated at about the scale of Grand Unification and where strong expectations for a timely detection of higgsinos in underground detectors are closely related to the measured 125 GeV mass of the Higgs boson at the LHC.Comment: 30 pages, 7 figures. Invited review for Advances in High Energy Physics. v3: References added, matches published versio

A Survey on Deep Learning-based Architectures for Semantic Segmentation on 2D images

Semantic segmentation is the pixel-wise labelling of an image. Since the problem is defined at the pixel level, determining image class labels only is not acceptable, but localising them at the original image pixel resolution is necessary. Boosted by the extraordinary ability of convolutional neural networks (CNN) in creating semantic, high level and hierarchical image features; excessive numbers of deep learning-based 2D semantic segmentation approaches have been proposed within the last decade. In this survey, we mainly focus on the recent scientific developments in semantic segmentation, specifically on deep learning-based methods using 2D images. We started with an analysis of the public image sets and leaderboards for 2D semantic segmantation, with an overview of the techniques employed in performance evaluation. In examining the evolution of the field, we chronologically categorised the approaches into three main periods, namely pre-and early deep learning era, the fully convolutional era, and the post-FCN era. We technically analysed the solutions put forward in terms of solving the fundamental problems of the field, such as fine-grained localisation and scale invariance. Before drawing our conclusions, we present a table of methods from all mentioned eras, with a brief summary of each approach that explains their contribution to the field. We conclude the survey by discussing the current challenges of the field and to what extent they have been solved.Comment: Updated with new studie

Unbiased large spectroscopic surveys of galaxies selected by SPICA using dust bands

The mid-infrared (IR) range contains many spectral features associated with large molecules and dust grains such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and silicates. These are usually very strong compared to fine-structure gas lines, and thus valuable in studying the spectral properties of faint distant galaxies. In this paper, we evaluate the capability of low-resolution mid-IR spectroscopic surveys of galaxies that could be performed by SPICA. The surveys are designed to address the question how star formation and black hole accretion activities evolved over cosmic time through spectral diagnostics of the physical conditions of the interstellar/circumnuclear media in galaxies. On the basis of results obtained with Herschel far-IR photometric surveys of distant galaxies and Spitzer and AKARI near- to mid-IR spectroscopic observations of nearby galaxies, we estimate the numbers of the galaxies at redshift z > 0.5, which are expected to be detected in the PAH features or dust continuum by a wide (10 deg^2) or deep (1 deg^2) blind survey, both for a given observation time of 600 hours. As by-products of the wide blind survey, we also expect to detect debris disks, through the mid-IR excess above the photospheric emission of nearby main-sequence stars, and we estimate their number. We demonstrate that the SPICA mid-IR surveys will efficiently provide us with unprecedentedly large spectral samples, which can be studied further in the far-IR with SPICA.Comment: Paper accepted for publication on PASA on 18th October 2017, as part of the SPICA Special Issu

Orthogonal polynomial ensembles in probability theory

We survey a number of models from physics, statistical mechanics, probability theory and combinatorics, which are each described in terms of an orthogonal polynomial ensemble. The most prominent example is apparently the Hermite ensemble, the eigenvalue distribution of the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble (GUE), and other well-known ensembles known in random matrix theory like the Laguerre ensemble for the spectrum of Wishart matrices. In recent years, a number of further interesting models were found to lead to orthogonal polynomial ensembles, among which the corner growth model, directed last passage percolation, the PNG droplet, non-colliding random processes, the length of the longest increasing subsequence of a random permutation, and others. Much attention has been paid to universal classes of asymptotic behaviors of these models in the limit of large particle numbers, in particular the spacings between the particles and the fluctuation behavior of the largest particle. Computer simulations suggest that the connections go even farther and also comprise the zeros of the Riemann zeta function. The existing proofs require a substantial technical machinery and heavy tools from various parts of mathematics, in particular complex analysis, combinatorics and variational analysis. Particularly in the last decade, a number of fine results have been achieved, but it is obvious that a comprehensive and thorough understanding of the matter is still lacking. Hence, it seems an appropriate time to provide a surveying text on this research area.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/154957805100000177 in the Probability Surveys (http://www.i-journals.org/ps/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Growing the Audience: Are Newsroom Metrics Killing Watchdog Reporting?

This paper explores the story selection process of reporters in newsrooms that use online metrics to measure article performance. As most media companies pressure reporters to deliver bigger viewership numbers, the gatekeeping power has been placed mostly in the hands of reporters. The questions investigated are whether this pressure is affecting the traditional First Amendment watchdog role of journalists and whether government oversight stories are being cast aside in place of lighter fare that will attract a mass audience. The study used a mixed-method involving story tracking data from a large East Coast newsroom; a national survey of reporters; and in-depth interviews with journalists. This investigation found that many reporters are embracing watchdog stories and such stories are likely helping them grow their metrics numbers. Reporters are using readership metrics to fine-tune their hunt for stories to maximize watchdog content, and readers reward reporters with higher metrics for the content

A multi-method approach to radial-velocity measurement for single-object spectra

The derivation of radial velocities from large numbers of spectra that typically result from survey work, requires automation. However, except for the classical cases of slowly rotating late-type spectra, existing methods of measuring Doppler shifts require fine-tuning to avoid a loss of accuracy due to the idiosyncrasies of individual spectra. The radial velocity spectrometer (RVS) on the Gaia mission, which will start operating very soon, prompted a new attempt at creating a measurement pipeline to handle a wide variety of spectral types. The present paper describes the theoretical background on which this software is based. However, apart from the assumption that only synthetic templates are used, we do not rely on any of the characteristics of this instrument, so our results should be relevant for most telescope-detector combinations. We propose an approach based on the simultaneous use of several alternative measurement methods, each having its own merits and drawbacks, and conveying the spectral information in a different way, leading to different values for the measurement. A comparison or a combination of the various results either leads to a "best estimate" or indicates to the user that the observed spectrum is problematic and should be analysed manually. We selected three methods and analysed the relationships and differences between them from a unified point of view; with each method an appropriate estimator for the individual random error is chosen. We also develop a procedure for tackling the problem of template mismatch in a systematic way. Furthermore, we propose several tests for studying and comparing the performance of the various methods as a function of the atmospheric parameters of the observed objects. Finally, we describe a procedure for obtaining a knowledge-based combination of the various Doppler-shift measurements.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure

The Multiplicity of Massive Stars: A High Angular Resolution Survey with the HST Fine Guidance Sensor

We present the results of an all-sky survey made with the Fine Guidance Sensor on Hubble Space Telescope to search for angularly resolved binary systems among the massive stars. The sample of 224 stars is comprised mainly of Galactic O- and B-type stars and Luminous Blue Variables, plus a few luminous stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud. The FGS TRANS mode observations are sensitive to detection of companions with an angular separation between 0."01 and 1."0 and brighter than $\triangle m = 5$. The FGS observations resolved 52 binary and 6 triple star systems and detected partially resolved binaries in 7 additional targets (43 of these are new detections). These numbers yield a companion detection frequency of 29% for the FGS survey. We also gathered literature results on the numbers of close spectroscopic binaries and wider astrometric binaries among the sample, and we present estimates of the frequency of multiple systems and the companion frequency for subsets of stars residing in clusters and associations, field stars, and runaway stars. These results confirm the high multiplicity fraction, especially among massive stars in clusters and associations. We show that the period distribution is approximately flat in increments of log P. We identify a number of systems of potential interest for long term orbital determinations, and we note the importance of some of these companions for the interpretation of the radial velocities and light curves of close binaries that have third companions.Comment: 37 pages, 4 figures, 5 tables; AJ, in press; Full version with extended tables and large figure set can be found: http://www.astro.umontreal.ca/~emily/fgs.pd

Marrying Out: One-in-Seven New U.S. Marriages Is Interracial or Interethnic

Examines trends in and attitudes toward marriages between different races/ethnicities since 1980, including rates of intermarriage by race/ethnicity, gender, region, education, and age. Considers factors behind the trends, including immigration patterns

Fine scale haul-out behaviour of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) at different localities in northern Norway

The haul-out behaviour of harbour seal (Phoca vitulina vitulina) is influenced by several factors such as the tidal state and environmental variables. Understanding these effects is important for designing counting-surveys providing data necessary to be able to estimate population size. The haul-out behaviour of harbour seals was investigated during the moulting period in three different localities by performing repeated land based visual counts at haul-out sites. The results from the counts were modelled using generalized additive mixed modelling to gain a better understanding of the relationship between the fine scale haul-out behaviour of harbour seals and the tidal cycle, as well as other sources of variability affecting the number of seals hauled out. In addition, results from aerial survey photographs of harbour seals from the same areas were compared to the results from the land based counts. The development of hauled out seals in time at haul-out sites was explained by the tidal cycle and other sources of variation on haul-out behaviour such as disturbance, time of day and movement of seals between haul-out sites were factors influencing seal numbers. The within-day variation in seal numbers along the tidal cycle was also investigated through the use of correction factors which revealed that counting-surveys should be performed around low tide when corrected estimates have a small uncertainty. The unexpected between-days variation in seal numbers, together with the investigated quality of aerial surveys, revealed the need for replicate counts at haul-out sites to provide a measure of uncertainty in the population estimates of Norwegian harbour seals