A sum-product algorithm with polynomials for computing exact derivatives of the likelihood in Bayesian networks

International audienceWe consider a Bayesian network with a parameter θ. It is well known that the probability of an evidence conditional on θ (the likelihood) can be computed through a sum-product of potentials. In this work we propose a polynomial version of the sum-product algorithm based on generating functions for computing both the likelihood function and all its exact derivatives. For a unidimensional parameter we obtain the derivatives up to order d with a complexity O(C × d 2) where C is the complexity for computing the likelihood alone. For a parameter of p dimensions we obtain the likelihood, the gradient and the Hessian with a complexity O(C × p 2). These complexities are similar to the numerical method with the main advantage that it computes exact derivatives instead of approximations

Solving, Estimating and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Economic Models without the Curse of Dimensionality

A welfare analysis of a risky policy is impossible within a linear or linearized model and its certainty equivalence property. The presented algorithms are designed as a toolbox for a general model class. The computational challenges are considerable and I concentrate on the numerics and statistics for a simple model of dynamic consumption and labor choice. I calculate the optimal policy and estimate the posterior density of structural parameters and the marginal likelihood within a nonlinear state space model. My approach is even in an interpreted language twenty time faster than the only alternative compiled approach. The model is estimated on simulated data in order to test the routines against known true parameters. The policy function is approximated by Smolyak Chebyshev polynomials and the rational expectation integral by Smolyak Gaussian quadrature. The Smolyak operator is used to extend univariate approximation and integration operators to many dimensions. It reduces the curse of dimensionality from exponential to polynomial growth. The likelihood integrals are evaluated by a Gaussian quadrature and Gaussian quadrature particle filter. The bootstrap or sequential importance resampling particle filter is used as an accuracy benchmark. The posterior is estimated by the Gaussian filter and a Metropolis- Hastings algorithm. I propose a genetic extension of the standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm by parallel random walk sequences. This improves the robustness of start values and the global maximization properties. Moreover it simplifies a cluster implementation and the random walk variances decision is reduced to only two parameters so that almost no trial sequences are needed. Finally the marginal likelihood is calculated as a criterion for nonnested and quasi-true models in order to select between the nonlinear estimates and a first order perturbation solution combined with the Kalman filter.stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model, Chebyshev polynomials, Smolyak operator, nonlinear state space filter, Curse of Dimensionality, posterior of structural parameters, marginal likelihood

Score Function Features for Discriminative Learning: Matrix and Tensor Framework

Feature learning forms the cornerstone for tackling challenging learning problems in domains such as speech, computer vision and natural language processing. In this paper, we consider a novel class of matrix and tensor-valued features, which can be pre-trained using unlabeled samples. We present efficient algorithms for extracting discriminative information, given these pre-trained features and labeled samples for any related task. Our class of features are based on higher-order score functions, which capture local variations in the probability density function of the input. We establish a theoretical framework to characterize the nature of discriminative information that can be extracted from score-function features, when used in conjunction with labeled samples. We employ efficient spectral decomposition algorithms (on matrices and tensors) for extracting discriminative components. The advantage of employing tensor-valued features is that we can extract richer discriminative information in the form of an overcomplete representations. Thus, we present a novel framework for employing generative models of the input for discriminative learning.Comment: 29 page

Computational Hardness of Certifying Bounds on Constrained PCA Problems

Given a random n×n symmetric matrix W drawn from the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE), we consider the problem of certifying an upper bound on the maximum value of the quadratic form x⊤Wx over all vectors x in a constraint set S⊂Rn. For a certain class of normalized constraint sets S we show that, conditional on certain complexity-theoretic assumptions, there is no polynomial-time algorithm certifying a better upper bound than the largest eigenvalue of W. A notable special case included in our results is the hypercube S={±1/n−−√}n, which corresponds to the problem of certifying bounds on the Hamiltonian of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glass model from statistical physics. Our proof proceeds in two steps. First, we give a reduction from the detection problem in the negatively-spiked Wishart model to the above certification problem. We then give evidence that this Wishart detection problem is computationally hard below the classical spectral threshold, by showing that no low-degree polynomial can (in expectation) distinguish the spiked and unspiked models. This method for identifying computational thresholds was proposed in a sequence of recent works on the sum-of-squares hierarchy, and is believed to be correct for a large class of problems. Our proof can be seen as constructing a distribution over symmetric matrices that appears computationally indistinguishable from the GOE, yet is supported on matrices whose maximum quadratic form over x∈S is much larger than that of a GOE matrix.ISSN:1868-896