How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence From A Laboratory Experiment

We use a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect that assuming rational expectations has on structural inference in a dynamic discrete choice decision problem. Our experimental design induces preferences up to each subject’s subjective rates of time preference, leaving unrestricted only this parameter and the decision rule that the subject uses in solving the problem. We analyze the data under the assumption that all subjects use the rational expectations decision rule, and also under weaker behavioral assumptions that allow for heterogeneity in the way people form decisions. We find no evidence that assuming rational expectations distorts inferences about the cross-sectional distribution of discount rates.

Time preference and decision rules in a price search experiment

Structural econometric methods that assume agents have rational expectations are often criticized. Yet, little is known about the relative costs and benefits of adopting alternative empirical strategies. This paper compares three procedures for inference about a single structural parameter using data from a laboratory price search experiment. Our novel experimental design induces preferences up to the subjective rate of time preference, leaving unrestricted only this parameter and the decision rule that subjects use in solving the search task. We analyze the experimental data under the assumptions of both rational expectations and heuristic behavior, and we also draw inferences using a simple revealed preference analysis that does not require strong behavioral assumptions. We find that the revealed-preference analysis does not provide much information about the discount rate, while the two specifications with stronger behavioral assumptions provide sharper and statistically identical inferences about the population's discount rate distribution. However, substantial differences in inference appear at the individual level. We compare the individual discount-rate estimates to an external measure of forward looking behavior obtained for each subject using an instrument validated in the psychology literature. The estimates obtained under heuristic behavior are statistically significantly positively correlated with our external measure of time preference, while the estimates obtained under rational expectations and the revealed-preference estimates are not.

A context aware recommender system for tourism with ambient intelligence

Recommender system (RS) holds a significant place in the area of the tourism sector. The major factor of trip planning is selecting relevant Points of Interest (PoI) from tourism domain. The RS system supposed to collect information from user behaviors, personality, preferences and other contextual information. This work is mainly focused on user’s personality, preferences and analyzing user psychological traits. The work is intended to improve the user profile modeling, exposing relationship between user personality and PoI categories and find the solution in constraint satisfaction programming (CSP). It is proposed the architecture according to ambient intelligence perspective to allow the best possible tourist place to the end-user. The key development of this RS is representing the model in CSP and optimizing the problem. We implemented our system in Minizinc solver with domain restrictions represented by user preferences. The CSP allowed user preferences to guide the system toward finding the optimal solutions; RESUMO O sistema de recomendação (RS) detém um lugar significativo na área do sector do turismo. O principal fator do planeamento de viagens é selecionar pontos de interesse relevantes (PoI) do domínio do turismo. O sistema de recomendação (SR) deve recolher informações de comportamentos, personalidade, preferências e outras informações contextuais do utilizador. Este trabalho centra-se principalmente na personalidade, preferências do utilizador e na análise de traços fisiológicos do utilizador. O trabalho tem como objetivo melhorar a modelação do perfil do utilizador, expondo a relação entre a personalidade deste e as categorias dos POI, assim como encontrar uma solução com programação por restrições (CSP). Propõe-se a arquitetura de acordo com a perspetiva do ambiente inteligente para conseguir o melhor lugar turístico possível para o utilizador final. A principal contribuição deste SR é representar o modelo como CSP e tratá-lo como problema de otimização. Implementámos o nosso sistema com o solucionador em Minizinc com restrições de domínio representadas pelas preferências dos utilizadores. O CSP permitiu que as preferências dos utilizadores guiassem o sistema para encontrar as soluções ideais

Reward-based contextual learning supported by anterior cingulate cortex

The anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is commonly associated with cognitive control and decision making, but its specific function is highly debated. To explore a recent theory that the ACC learns the reward values of task contexts (Holroyd & McClure in Psychological Review, 122, 54-83, 2015; Holroyd & Yeung in Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 16, 122-128, 2012), we recorded the event-related brain potentials (ERPs) from participants as they played a novel gambling task. The participants were first required to select from among three games in one "virtual casino," and subsequently they were required to select from among three different games in a different virtual casino; unbeknownst to them, the payoffs for the games were higher in one casino than in the other. Analysis of the reward positivity, an ERP component believed to reflect reward-related signals carried to the ACC by the midbrain dopamine system, revealed that the ACC is sensitive to differences in the reward values associated with both the casinos and the games inside the casinos, indicating that participants learned the values of the contexts in which rewards were delivered. These results highlight the importance of the ACC in learning the reward values of task contexts in order to guide action selection

A cognitive psychological approach of analyzing preference uncertainty in contingent valuation

The sources of preference uncertainty in contingent valuation (CV) studies have rarely been investigated from a theoretical standpoint. This paper proposes a holistic theoretical framework of preference uncertainty that combines microeconomic theory with the theories of cognitive psychology. Empirical testing of the proposed theoretical model was carried out in Australia in the context of a national ‘Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)’ to be introduced in 2010. Two separate ordered probit models for a certainty score associated with CV ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ responses were estimated. The results of the estimated regression models provide evidence supporting the hypotheses drawn from the theoretical model.Contingent valuation, preference uncertainty, cognitive uncertainty, climate change, Australia,

Spatial Behavior in a Bahamian Resort

The purpose of this study is to understand better the spatial behavior of tourists visiting spatially confined resort destinations. Based on a time-budget study of the intradestination travel patterns of 795 tourists visiting Paradise Island (Bahamas), the travel behavior of tourists was found to be heterogeneous. The spatial equivalent of the allocentric tourist seemed more likely to venture beyond the Paradise Island resort area during their stay. Only the psychocentric tourist seemed reluctant to leave the island under any conditions. In the context of international resort tourism, the space-time constraints are found to be more important than the socioeconomic descriptors in explaining the different typologies of spatial behavior

Destination choice in novel and mature destinations: Effects of psychographic traits and anticipated need congruity on tourist intentions

The tourism marketing literature shows that psychological variables are predictors of destination choice for vacations. However, research testing the effects of Plog\u27s (1974) personality-based psychographic traits on destination selection has yielded inconclusive results. Based on the theory of market choice behavior (Sheth, Newman, and Gross, 1991a), this research proposes that tourist´s destination choice is influenced by the mediating effects of anticipated needs congruity (epistemic, emotional, functional, and social) in the relationship between Plog\u27s psychographic traits and behavioral intentions, providing more explanation of destination preference for novel and mature beach resort destinations (Butler, 1980). In order to conduct the study, data was collected from a sample of 450 consumers in the United States, stratified in terms of geography, income, and age according to national census demographic distribution. The research hypotheses were tested employing partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) in two models, one for each type of destination context (novel vs. mature). The study results show the mediation of anticipated needs congruity predicts tourist\u27s behavioral intentions better than Plog\u27s psychographic traits alone. Importantly, a common pattern in the effects of anticipated needs congruity on behavioral intentions was found for both novel and mature destinations, indicating that tourists expect to fulfill the same consumption needs when considering vacationing at beach resorts, regardless of the destination\u27s degree of development. The study also identified some measurement issues in Plog\u27s psychographic scale. Theoretical implications of the research findings are discussed and managerial recommendations are presented for destination marketing managers

The Role of Gender in Social Network Organization

The digital traces we leave behind when engaging with the modern world offer an interesting lens through which we study behavioral patterns as expression of gender. Although gender differentiation has been observed in a number of settings, the majority of studies focus on a single data stream in isolation. Here we use a dataset of high resolution data collected using mobile phones, as well as detailed questionnaires, to study gender differences in a large cohort. We consider mobility behavior and individual personality traits among a group of more than $800$ university students. We also investigate interactions among them expressed via person-to-person contacts, interactions on online social networks, and telecommunication. Thus, we are able to study the differences between male and female behavior captured through a multitude of channels for a single cohort. We find that while the two genders are similar in a number of aspects, there are robust deviations that include multiple facets of social interactions, suggesting the existence of inherent behavioral differences. Finally, we quantify how aspects of an individual's characteristics and social behavior reveals their gender by posing it as a classification problem. We ask: How well can we distinguish between male and female study participants based on behavior alone? Which behavioral features are most predictive

Recreation, tourism and nature in a changing world : proceedings of the fifth international conference on monitoring and management of visitor flows in recreational and protected areas : Wageningen, the Netherlands, May 30-June 3, 2010

Proceedings of the fifth international conference on monitoring and management of visitor flows in recreational and protected areas : Wageningen, the Netherlands, May 30-June 3, 201