Assessing the socio-economic impacts of flash floods for early warning at regional, national, and continental scales

Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural hazards, claiming numerous lives and tremendous economic losses. One of the main reasons for their catastrophic potential is the limited time available for precautionary measures, such as warnings or evacuations. Early warning systems (EWSs) play a key role for emergency managers to react in a timely manner to upcoming floods and effectively mitigate the impacts. This thesis explores possibilities to enhance the methods available for flash flood early warning and thus improve the operational decision support. While a variety of existing methods aims at the prediction of the hazard component of flash floods (e.g. the peak streamflow), an increasing number of EWS developers and end-users have recognised the potential of tools that automatically translate the flash flood hazard forecasts into the expected socio-economic impacts (e.g. the population affected). These so-called impact forecasts enable more objective and rapid decisions, ultimately leading to a more effective flood response. While for fluvial floods, impact forecasts have been available for several years and over various spatial scales, the existing approaches for flash floods have been limited to a small number of prototypes focusing on individual catchments or relatively small regions. These small-scale approaches can be useful for the coordination of local emergency measures, but their potential is limited for supporting the decisions of authorities operating over larger domains (e.g. regional, national, or international civil protection mechanisms). The main goal of this thesis has been to extend the available decision support by applying the concept of flash flood impact forecasting over large spatial scales. Two methods have been developed for estimating the impacts in real time, named ReAFFIRM and ReAFFINE. The two methods take into account that emergency services operating at different spatial scales require different kinds of real-time information to make informed decisions: ReAFFIRM provides detailed impact estimates in high resolution to support regional or national authorities in the coordination of location-specific emergency measures (e.g. evacuations), whereas ReAFFINE generates order-of-magnitude impact estimates with pan-European coverage that can be useful for end-users operating across regions or countries. The application of ReAFFIRM and ReAFFINE for a number of past flood events has demonstrated their capabilities to identify flash flood impacts in real time over the different spatial scales. The developed algorithms have a moderate computational cost and require only datasets that are available throughout the EU, which facilitates the real-time implementation of the methods and their integration into the operational procedures of end-users across Europe. An additional objective of this thesis has been to explore a more integrated perspective of flood early warning. Traditionally, EWSs are designed separately for the different physical processes that lead to flooding (i.e. individual systems for fluvial, pluvial, coastal, and flash floods). This means that the end-users need to monitor a number of separate flood forecasts with potentially even contradicting outputs. Especially during events in which different flood types coincide (so-called compound floods), this can be time-consuming and confusing. The decision support could be significantly simplified by automatically integrating the forecasts of different flood types into an overall compound flood forecast. This idea has been explored through the analysis of a recent catastrophic compound flood, for which the impact estimates from ReAFFIRM have been combined with those from a system designed for fluvial floods. The combined performance of the methods has shown to be superior to the individual performances, clearly demonstrating the potential of such integrated approaches for improving the decision support.Las avenidas torrenciales son una de las amenazas naturales más devastadoras, causando numerosas víctimas y enormes pérdidas económicas. Los sistemas de alerta temprana (SAT) juegan un papel clave para que los servicios de emergencia puedan reaccionar de manera oportuna y mitigar con eficacia los impactos. Esta tesis explora diferentes posibilidades de ampliar los métodos disponibles para la alerta temprana de avenidas torrenciales, con el objetivo de mejorar la toma de decisiones de los servicios de emergencia. Una variedad de métodos se dedica a la predicción del componente de amenaza de las avenidas repentinas (e.g. los caudales máximos instantáneos). No obstante, un número creciente de desarrolladores de SAT y usuarios finales han reconocido el potencial de herramientas que traducen automáticamente estos pronósticos de amenaza en impactos socioeconómicos (e.g. la cantidad de población afectada). Estas predicciones de impacto permiten tomar decisiones más objetivas y rápidas, que conducen a una respuesta más eficaz ante las avenidas y sus consecuencias. Los estudios realizados para la predicción del impacto de avenidas torrenciales han sido limitados a unos pocos prototipos que se enfocan en cuencas individuales o regiones relativamente pequeñas que pueden resultar útiles para la coordinación de medidas de emergencia locales, pero su potencial es limitado para apoyar las decisiones de las autoridades que actúan en dominios más amplios (e.g. autoridades de protección civil regionales, nacionales o europeas). El objetivo principal de esta tesis ha sido extender el apoyo a la toma de decisiones disponible mediante la aplicación del concepto de previsión del impacto de avenidas torrenciales en grandes escalas espaciales. Para ello, se desarrollaron dos métodos para estimar los impactos en tiempo real: ReAFFIRM y ReAFFINE. ReAFFIRM proporciona estimaciones de impacto detalladas y en alta resolución para dar apoyo a las autoridades regionales o nacionales en la coordinación de medidas de emergencia específicas (e.g. evacuaciones), mientras que ReAFFINE genera estimaciones de impacto en órdenes de magnitud con cobertura paneuropea que resultan útiles para los usuarios finales que actúan en grandes dominios espaciales. El uso de ReAFFIRM y ReAFFINE para una serie de inundaciones pasadas ha demostrado su capacidad para identificar los impactos de las avenidas torrenciales en tiempo real y en diferentes escalas espaciales. Los algoritmos desarrollados tienen un coste computacional moderado y solo requieren datos que están disponibles en toda la UE, permitiendo su implementación e integración en los procedimientos operativos de varios usuarios finales en toda Europa. Un objetivo adicional de esta tesis ha sido explorar una perspectiva más integrada de la alerta temprana de inundaciones. Tradicionalmente, los SAT son diseñados por separado para los diferentes procesos físicos que pueden resultar en inundaciones. Esto significa que los usuarios finales deben monitorear una serie de pronósticos de inundaciones por separado con resultados que podrían resultar potencialmente contradictorios, especialmente durante eventos en los que coincidan diferentes tipos de inundaciones (también llamadas inundaciones compuestas). Lo anterior puede alargar los tiempos de respuesta, generar confusión y, en última instancia, impedir una respuesta de emergencia eficaz. El apoyo a la toma de decisiones podría ser simplificada significativamente y de manera automática mediante la integración de los SAT de diferentes tipos de inundaciones en un único pronóstico que las englobe. Esta idea se explora a través de la combinación de las estimaciones de impacto de ReAFFIRM con las de un sistema diseñado para inundaciones fluviales. El rendimiento de ambos métodos combinados ha demostrado ser superior al de cada uno de manera individual, indicando el potencial de combinar el pronóstico de impacto por inundacionesPostprint (published version

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio

Climate Related Business Continuity Model for Critical Infrastructures

Climate change is more and more nowadays acknowledged to be associated with the natural hazards for which the society, and its Critical Infrastructures, need to anticipate and plan. The impact the climate-related hazards have to the functionality of different Critical Infrastructures (CI) is being discussed, focusing on the minimization of the disruption time of their critical services. This is achieved by means of a Business Continuity plan that is based on Business Impact Analysis and Risk Assessment of projected weather-related hazards. Business continuity planning is essential part of the resilience framework of the CIs, which EU-CIRCLE project proposes with regards to climate change. Guidelines are presented in order to provide a planned and controlled method for anticipating and responding to events that are likely to interrupt key business activities (Business Continuity Model) and suggestions upon adaptation of CIs to climate change are also given. For this purpose, information was collected from CI operators with regards to existing BC plans and adaptation measurements, by means of questionnaires, which is also presented herein.</p

The coherence of EU trade, competition, and industry policies in the high tech sector : the case of the telecommunications services sector

We analyze the coherence existing among European Union competition, industry, and trade policies in the high tech sector in general terms focusing on its specific features (externalities, fast progress) and their effects on the emergence and treatment of policy consistency and conflicts. Second, this analysis is applied to the European telecommunications services sector. The examination of this sector and the relevant EU policies reveals a consensus on giving priority to competition. However structural factors prevent policy implementation to reflect much liberalization and harmonization and business responses to trade globalization challenge effective competition. The potential, important role of standardization is shown.economics of technology ;

Protecting critical infrastructure in the EU: CEPS task force report

2sìCritical infrastructures such as energy, communications, banking, transportation, public government services, information technology etc., are more vital to industrialized economies and now than ever before. At the same time, these infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on each other, such that failure of one of them can often propagate and result in domino effects. The emerging challenge of Critical (information) Infrastructure Protection (C(I)IP) has been recognized by nearly all member states of the European Union: politicians are increasingly aware of the threats posed by radical political movements and terrorist attacks, as well as the need to develop better response capacity in case of natural disasters. Responses to these facts have been in line with the available resources and possibilities of each country, so that certain countries are already quite advanced in translating the C(I)IP challenge into measures, whereas others are lagging behind. In the international arena of this policy domain, Europe is still in search of a role to play. Recently, CIIP policy has been integrated in the EU Digital Agenda, which testifies to the growing importance of securing resilient infrastructures for the future. This important and most topical Task Force Report is the result of in-depth discussions between experts from different backgrounds and offers a number of observations and recommendations for a more effective and joined-up European policy response to the protection of critical infrastructure.openopenAndrea Renda; Bernhard HaemmerliRenda, Andrea; Bernhard, Haemmerl

STREST – Exploitation plan

The present deliverable contains the detailed dissemination and exploitation plan of the project results, with particular emphasis on communicating to stakeholders and user communities addressing the outcomes of STREST on the enhancement of societal resilience through infrastructure stress tests. This deliverable presents the objectives of the dissemination activities, the identification of stakeholders and the detailed description of tasks concerning the use and dissemination of the STREST project foreground.JRC.G.4-European laboratory for structural assessmen

Continuous monitoring of tree responses to climate change for smart forestry: a cybernetic web of trees

6openBothTrees are long-lived organisms that contribute to forest development over centuries and beyond. However, trees are vulnerable to increasing natural and anthropic disturbances. Spatially distributed, continuous data are required to predict mortality risk and impact on the fate of forest ecosystems. In order to enable monitoring over sensitive and often remote forest areas that cannot be patrolled regularly, early warning tools/platforms of mortality risk need to be established across regions. Although remote sensing tools are good at detecting change once it has occurred, early warning tools require ecophysiological information that is more easily collected from single trees on the ground. Here, we discuss the requirements for developing and implementing such a treebased platform to collect and transmit ecophysiological forest observations and environmental measurements from representative forest sites, where the goals are to identify and to monitor ecological tipping points for rapid forest decline. Long-term monitoring of forest research plots will contribute to better understanding of disturbance and the conditions that precede it. International networks of these sites will provide a regional view of susceptibility and impacts and would play an important role in ground-truthing remotely sensed data.openTognetti, Roberto; Valentini, Riccardo; Belelli Marchesini, Luca; Gianelle, Damiano; Panzacchi, Pietro; Marshall, John D.Tognetti, R.; Valentini, R.; Belelli Marchesini, L.; Gianelle, D.; Panzacchi, P.; Marshall, J.D

What lies beneath? The role of informal and hidden networks in the management of crises

Crisis management research traditionally focuses on the role of formal communication networks in the escalation and management of organisational crises. Here, we consider instead informal and unobservable networks. The paper explores how hidden informal exchanges can impact upon organisational decision-making and performance, particularly around inter-agency working, as knowledge distributed across organisations and shared between organisations is often shared through informal means and not captured effectively through the formal decision-making processes. Early warnings and weak signals about potential risks and crises are therefore often missed. We consider the implications of these dynamics in terms of crisis avoidance and crisis management

Building Resilient Cities: A Simulation-Based Scenario Assessment Methodology for the Integration of DRR and CCA in a Multi-Scale Design Perspective

Resilience of the built environment and communities to natural and man-made hazards is consolidating worldwide as a key requirement in the field of urban planning and building design, and there is an increasing awareness that Sustainable Development Goals and priorities of the Sendai Framework cannot be achieved without a comprehensive approach able to promote the effective implementation of DRR and CCA measures within regeneration processes at various scales. In this sense, an “all-hazards” approach, addressing multiple risk conditions (including Natech and cascading effects) and integrating DRR and CCA design strategies, show a highly cost-effective potential, maximizing the effect of complementary measures and optimizing mitigation/adaptation design techniques within a multi-scale (building/neighbourhood/city) resilience perspective, delivering at the same time socio-economic benefits linked to the improvement of urban spaces’ liveability and environmental quality. Vulnerability and impact assessment represent an essential component of a simulation-based methodology aimed at increasing the potential for use of scientific results by decision-makers, through multi-hazard and dynamic impact scenarios combined with cost-benefit and multi-criteria analyses to assess the effectiveness of alternative options. The paper presents the methodological approach developed at PLINIVS Study Centre and the experimental applications implemented within recent EU and National projects, such as H2020-ESPREssO and SIMMCITIES_NA