Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.Energy Production and Transportation,Energy Demand,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Economic Theory&Research

The role of end-use energy conversion efficiency as a climate mitigation tool

Historically, conversion efficiency improvements have revolutionised the energy system, yet to reach climate targets, the scientific community agrees that even higher levels of energy efficiency improvement are required. When focusing on technical options there are two classes of technologies: conversion devices and passive systems. This thesis explores the role that the former can have in reducing energy demand with the aim of providing advice on the prioritisation and differentiation of policy action among these devices. The analysis is divided into three main chapters. First, issues with data quality were identified a cause for the marginalisation of end-use efficiency measures compared to supply-side ones. For the first time, the uncertainty of end-use statistics is quantified by drawing from methods developed in the field of Material Flow Analysis using the United Kingdom as a case study. The majority (85%) of the Useful energy balance uncertainties are below an acceptable (±25%) threshold. Therefore, end-use statistics are deemed sufficiently reliable for the development of policy-relevant indicators. Second, the technical efficiency limits for six widely used conversion devices are determined stochastically based on a combination of engineering models and review of the technical literature. The resulting limits are used to calculate the energy saving potential of each conversion device, and each design parameter for the United Kingdom. It is shown that 25% of the UK’s Final energy demand could be avoided if all conversion devices reached their technical limit. On the other hand, 15% savings could be achieved by applying available technology. Nonetheless, improvement margins vary substantially among devices meaning that strategies involving different balances of R&D and technology adoption incentives are required for each technology. Third, the International Energy Agency’s Energy Technology Perspective’s modelling results are used to assess the saving potential of seven conversion devices in three emission scenarios. Between 3.2% and 4.2% of cumulative energy demand between 2014 and 2060 can be saved thanks to improvements in conversion efficiency. Most savings come from improved internal combustion engines in all scenarios. Carbon emission savings from conversion efficiency are highest in the baseline scenario and lowest in the most ambitious climate scenario due to negative emissions in electricity generation nullifying the effect of improvements in electricity-using devices. No technology was found to breach the technical efficiency limit in the IEA’s assessment meaning that expected efficiency improvements technically realistic. Current innovation activity in energy conversion devices is quantified by means of patent counts and it’s compared to the distribution of saving potentials. It is found that innovation in air coolers and heat pumps is low when compared to the expected efficiency savings from these technologies. The thesis results are useful for directing policy and investment priorities for conversion devices as function of the ambition of the climate scenario. The analysis of technical efficiency limits for conversion devices, help improve energy system models. The novel uncertainty method provides a powerful tool for supporting energy planning and decision making

Biorefarmeries: Milking ethanol from algae for the mobility of tomorrow

The idea of this project is to fully exploit microalgae to the best of its potential, possibly proposing a sort of fourth generation fuel based on a continuous milking of macro- and microorganisms (as cows in a milk farm), which produce fuel by photosynthetic reactions. This project proposes a new transportation concept supported by a new socio-economic approach, in which biofuel production is based on biorefarmeries delivering fourth generation fuels which also have decarbonization capabilities, potential negative CO2 emissions plus positive impacts on mobility, the automotive Industry, health and environment and the econom

The (long) road towards smart management and maintenance: Organising the digital transformation of critical infrastructures

The digital transformation of organisations, triggered by various digital technologies such as smart sensors, smart meters and IoT devices, provides large amounts of data that make it possible to make smarter decisions. For (Dutch) infrastructure organisations this provides opportunities to smarten the management and maintenance of their assets. But why are these technologies not used on a large scale yet? Two important hurdles for infrastructure managers here are 1) accessing the right data and the expertise needed to transform data into information and 2) the need to collaborate closely with partners in their respective supply networks. This doctoral thesis investigates these hurdles, thereby adding to the emerging literature regarding the impact of digital transformation on collaborating organisations and providing Dutch infrastructure with practical ways to overcome these hurdles. The three empirical studies in this doctoral thesis each investigate a specific aspect of the impact of digital transformations on collaborating supply network partners. Specifically, the study in Chapter 2 focuses on how the two main data processing activities (i.e. gathering data and transforming data) can be managed in dyadic relationships through contractual and relational governance mechanisms. The study in Chapter 3 focuses on how post formation adjustments to contractual and relational governance mechanisms in dyadic relationships are made to cope with uncertainty caused by the digitalisation of collaborative processes. Finally, the study in Chapter 4 focuses on the governance of supply networks (i.e. networks with three or more partners) and how these can be motivated to start sharing and using data coming from digital technologies

Energy Planning

The world needs an accelerated energy transition to meet sustainable development goals. Energy planning has a critical role in providing the information that can guide decision-makers, and energy planning methods continue to evolve rapidly. This Special Issue provides new insights for long-term energy planning, drawing on the Clean Energy Ministerial Long Term Energy Planning Scenarios initiative and the IRENA LTES network

Developing sustainable supply chains in regional Australia considering demand uncertainty, government subsidies and carbon tax regulation

There is a tremendous opportunity to implement sustainable supply chain management practices in terms of logistics, operations, and transport network in regional Australia. Unfortunately, this opportunity has not been investigated and there is a lack of academic studies in this body of knowledge. This thesis is made up by three related, but independent models designed to efficiently distribute products from a regional hub to other part of the country. This research aims to develop efficient and sustainable supply chain practices to deliver regional Australian products across the country and overseas. As the airports of most Australian capital cities are over-crowded while many regional airports are under-utilised, the first model examines the ways to promote the use of regional airports. Australia is a significant food producer and the agricultural products are primarily produced in regional areas. In the other two models, we focus on the distribution of perishable products from regional Australia. The first model presented in Chapter 2 outlines how different government subsidy schemes can be used to influence airfreight distributions that favour the use of regional airports and promote regional economic development. The model simultaneously considers time-window and release-time constraints as well as the heterogeneous fleet for ground distribution where fuel consumption is subject to load, travel distance, speed and vehicle characteristics. A real-world case study in the state of Queensland, Australia is used to demonstrate the application of the model. The results suggest that the regional airport's advantages can be promoted with suitable subsidy programs and the logistics costs can be reduced by using the regional airport from the industry’s perspective. The second model presented in Chapter 3 examines the impacts of carbon emissions arising from the storage and transportation of perishable products on logistical decisions in the cold supply chain considering carbon tax regulation and uncertain demand. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming model where Monte Carlo approach is used to generate scenarios. The aim of the model is to determine optimal replenishment policies and transportation schedules to minimise both operational and emissions costs. A matheuristic algorithm based on the Iterated Local Search (ILS) algorithm and a mixed integer programming is developed to solve the problem in realistic sizes. The proposed model was implemented in a real-world case study in the state of Queensland, Australia to demonstrate the application of the model. The results highlight that a higher emissions price does not always contribute to the efficiency of the cold supply chain system. The third model presented in Chapter 4 investigates the impacts of two different transport modes - road and rail - on the efficiency and sustainability of transport network to deliver meat and livestock from regional Queensland to large cities and seaports. The model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model that considers road traffic congestions, animal welfare, quality of meat products and environmental impacts from fuel consumption of different transport modes. The aim of the model is to determine an optimal network configuration where each leg of journey is conducted by the most reliable, sustainable and efficient transport mode. The results indicate that it would be possible to significantly decrease total cost if a road-rail intermodal network is used. Considering animal welfare, product quality and traffic congestion can have a significant effect on the decisions related to transport mode selection

UKERC Review of evidence for the rebound effect: Technical report 2: Econometric studies

This Working Paper examines the evidence for direct rebound effects that is available from studies that use econometric techniques to analyse secondary data. The focus throughout is on consumer energy services, since this is where the bulk of the evidence lies

Dugoročno planiranje energetske potrošnje ovisno o energetskoj politici

Dugoročni energetski ciljevi, koje je Europska komisija zadala za 2020. i 2050. godinu, u svrhu povećanja sigurnosti energetske opskrbe, smanjenja utjecaja na okoliš i poticanja održivosti, su obvezujući za sve zemlje članice. Hrvatska, kao nova zemlja članica mora preispitati i razviti novu energetsku politiku prema energetskoj učinkovitosti i obnovljivim izvorima energije. Jedan od ključnih elemenata je racionalna energetska potrošnja i njeno postupno smanjivanje. Obzirom na izrečeno; izuzetno je bitno shvatiti koji su to mehanizmi koji utječu na energetsku potrošnju te koji je njihov dugoročni efekt. Klasični pristup energetskom planiranju potrošnje se fokusira na traženje međuovisnosti između makroekonomskih varijabli, kao što je bruto domaći proizvod, i potrošnje energije. To se obično radi analizom različitih setova povijesnih podataka koja može biti vrlo jednostavna, kao vremenski nizovi, ili relativno kompleksna, kao što su genetski algoritmi, neuronske mreže ili neke slične metode. Ovakav pristup je postao nedovoljan, pogotovo u slučaju zemalja EU, koje čine sve kako bi razdvojile svoj gospodarski rast i potrošnju energije. Brojne inicijative, usmjerene ka smanjenju potrošnje energije unutar EU, primjenom različitih direktiva, financijskih mehanizama za posljedicu će imati smanjenje potrošnje energije uz planirani gospodarski rast. Novi pristup kod planiranja energetske potrošnje je potreban. Kako bi se opisali i kvantificirali mehanizmi energetske politike, energetski modeli koji počivaju na pristupu odozdo prema gore fokusirani na krajnjeg korisnika, trebaju biti primijenjeni. Kroz ovu tezu autor je razvio National energy Demand model (NeD model), te ga iskoristio kako bi izračunao dugoročnu finalnu potrošnju Republike Hrvatske. Model je baziran na sektorskom pristupu te uključuje šest glavnih ekonomskih sektora: kućanstva, transport, industrija, usluge, poljoprivreda, te građevinarstvo. Rezultati NeD modela su uspoređeni s dva modela/studije, Primes EU28 te nacionalnom energetskom strategijom. Kao dodatna komponenta ove teze jest implementacija NeD metoda i postupaka u LEAP model, kako bi imali jednostavan za koristiti dugoročni model energetske potrošnje Republike Hrvatske. Glavno pitanje koje si autor teze postavlja je: kakav će biti efekt implementacije mjera energetske politike na dugoročnu energetsku potrošnju, ali i okoliš