Stochastic Prediction and Feedback Control of Router Queue Size in a Virtual Network Environment

Modern congestion and routing management algorithms work well for networks with static topologies and moderate QoS requirements. However, these algorithms may not be suitable for modern military networks with fluid dynamic topologies and traffic demands that include mobile networks with many assets. These secure networks require a high level of Quality of Service (QoS) that must adapt to changing demands with no service interruptions. The idea of a network weatherman was developed by Stuckey to predict router queue size by using an extended Kalman filter. He modeled and exercised his design in OPNET with positive results. The goal of this research is to investigate the use of queue size predictions and network weatherman and to determine the effectiveness of three types of filters to predict future traffic demand in a virtual network environment. These filters are an extended Kalman filter, an unscented Kalman filter, and a basic filter. These queue size predictions will be used to implement a network controller to improve the performance of information technology (IT) networks and formulate some type of context awareness and cognitive process in the management of networks by reducing packet loss

Efficient state-space inference of periodic latent force models

Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differen-tial equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the developmentand application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially whenclosed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world prob-lems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a newsparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency,as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic ornear periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate onegenerative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generatedfrom Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses thesepriors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings andshow that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We alsoapply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are mod-elled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs.Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can re-duce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of thenearest rival approach which is the resonator model (S ̈arkk ̈a et al., 2012; Hartikainen et al.,2012.

Stochastic Estimation and Control of Queues within a Computer Network

An extended Kalman filter is used to estimate size and packet arrival rate of network queues. These estimates are used by a LQG steady state linear perturbation PI controller to regulate queue size within a computer network. This paper presents the derivation of the transient queue behavior for a system with Poisson traffic and exponential service times. This result is then validated for ideal traffic using a network simulated in OPNET. A more complex OPNET model is then used to test the adequacy of the transient queue size model when non-Poisson traffic is combined. The extended Kalman filter theory is presented and a network state estimator is designed using the transient queue behavior model. The equations needed for the LQG synthesis of a steady state linear perturbation PI controller are presented. These equations are used to develop a network queue controller based on the transient queue model. The performance of the network state estimator and network queue controller was investigated and shown to provide improved control when compared to other simplistic control algorithms

Efficient State-Space Inference of Periodic Latent Force Models

Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differential equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the development and application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially when closed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world problems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a new sparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency, as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic or near periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate one generative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generated from Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses these priors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings and show that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We also apply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are modelled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs. Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can reduce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of the nearest rival approach which is the resonator model.Comment: 61 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in JMLR. Updates from earlier version occur throughout article in response to JMLR review

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Applications Development and Evaluation for Transportation Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) seamlessly integrate computation, networking and physical devices. A Connected and Autonomous Vehicle (CAV) system in which each vehicle can wirelessly communicate and share data with other vehicles or infrastructures (e.g., traffic signal, roadside unit), requires a Transportation Cyber-Physical System (TCPS) for improving safety and mobility, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, a typical TCPS with a centralized computing service cannot support real-time CAV applications due to the often unpredictable network latency, high data loss rate and expensive communication bandwidth, especially in a mobile network, such as a CAV environment. Edge computing, a new concept for the CPS, distributes the resources for communication, computation, control, and storage at different edges of the systems. TCPS with edge computing strategy forms an edge-centric TCPS. This edge-centric TCPS system can reduce data loss and data delivery delay, and fulfill the high bandwidth requirements. Within the edge-centric TCPS, Vehicle-to-X (V2X) communication, along with the in-vehicle sensors, provides a 360-degree view for CAVs that enables autonomous vehicles’ operation beyond the sensor range. The addition of wireless connectivity would improve the operational efficiency of CAVs by providing real-time roadway information, such as traffic signal phasing and timing information, downstream traffic incident alerts, and predicting future traffic queue information. In addition, temporal variation of roadway traffic can be captured by sharing Basic Safety Messages (BSMs) from each vehicle through the communication between vehicles as well as with roadside infrastructures (e.g., traffic signal, roadside unit) and traffic management centers. In the early days of CAVs, data will be collected only from a limited number of CAVs due to a low CAV penetration rate and not from other non-connected vehicles. This will result in noise in the traffic data because of low penetration rate of CAVs. This lack of data combined with the data loss rate in the wireless CAV environment makes it challenging to predict traffic behavior, which is dynamic over time. To address this challenge, it is important to develop and evaluate a machine learning technique to capture stochastic variation in traffic patterns over time. This dissertation focuses on the development and evaluation of various connected and autonomous vehicles applications in an edge-centric TCPS. It includes adaptive queue prediction, traffic data prediction, dynamic routing and Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) applications. An adaptive queue prediction algorithm is described in Chapter 2 for predicting real-time traffic queue status in an edge-centric TCPS. Chapter 3 presents noise reduction models to reduce the noise from the traffic data generated from the BSMs at different penetration of CAVs and evaluate the performance of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) prediction model for predicting traffic data using the resulting filtered data set. The development and evaluation of a dynamic routing application in a CV environment is detailed in Chapter 4 to reduce incident recovery time and increase safety on a freeway. The development of an evaluation framework is detailed in Chapter 5 to evaluate car-following models for CACC controller design in terms of vehicle dynamics and string stability to ensure user acceptance is detailed in Chapter 5. Innovative methods presented in this dissertation were proven to be providing positive improvements in transportation mobility. These research will lead to the real-world deployment of these applications in an edge-centric TCPS as the dissertation focuses on the edge-centric TCPS deployment strategy. In addition, as multiple CAV applications as presented in this dissertation can be supported simultaneously by the same TCPS, public investments will only include infrastructure investments, such as investments in roadside infrastructure and back-end computing infrastructure. These connected and autonomous vehicle applications can potentially provide significant economic benefits compared to its cost

Modeling and Control of Server-based Systems

When deploying networked computing-based applications, proper resource management of the server-side resources is essential for maintaining quality of service and cost efficiency. The work presented in this thesis is based on six papers, all investigating problems that relate to resource management of server-based systems. Using a queueing system approach we model the performance of a database system being subjected to write-heavy traffic. We then evaluate the model using simulations and validate that it accurately mimics the behavior of a real test bed. In collaboration with Ericsson we model and design a per-request admission control scheme for a Mobile Service Support System (MSS). The model is then validated and the control scheme is evaluated in a test bed. Also, we investigate the feasibility to estimate the state of a server in an MSS using an event-based Extended Kalman Filter. In the brownout paradigm of server resource management, the amount of work required to serve a client is adjusted to compensate for temporary resource shortages. In this thesis we investigate how to perform load balancing over self-adaptive server instances. The load balancing schemes are evaluated in both simulations and test bed experiments. Further, we investigate how to employ delay-compensated feedback control to automatically adjust the amount of resources to deploy to a cloud application in the presence of a large, stochastic delay. The delay-compensated control scheme is evaluated in simulations and the conclusion is that it can be made fast and responsive compared to an industry-standard solution