Modelling Spatial Compositional Data: Reconstructions of past land cover and uncertainties

In this paper, we construct a hierarchical model for spatial compositional data, which is used to reconstruct past land-cover compositions (in terms of coniferous forest, broadleaved forest, and unforested/open land) for five time periods during the past $6\,000$ years over Europe. The model consists of a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) with Dirichlet observations. A block updated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), including an adaptive Metropolis adjusted Langevin step, is used to estimate model parameters. The sparse precision matrix in the GMRF provides computational advantages leading to a fast MCMC algorithm. Reconstructions are obtained by combining pollen-based estimates of vegetation cover at a limited number of locations with scenarios of past deforestation and output from a dynamic vegetation model. To evaluate uncertainties in the predictions a novel way of constructing joint confidence regions for the entire composition at each prediction location is proposed. The hierarchical model's ability to reconstruct past land cover is evaluated through cross validation for all time periods, and by comparing reconstructions for the recent past to a present day European forest map. The evaluation results are promising and the model is able to capture known structures in past land-cover compositions

Robust Linear Spectral Unmixing using Anomaly Detection

This paper presents a Bayesian algorithm for linear spectral unmixing of hyperspectral images that accounts for anomalies present in the data. The model proposed assumes that the pixel reflectances are linear mixtures of unknown endmembers, corrupted by an additional nonlinear term modelling anomalies and additive Gaussian noise. A Markov random field is used for anomaly detection based on the spatial and spectral structures of the anomalies. This allows outliers to be identified in particular regions and wavelengths of the data cube. A Bayesian algorithm is proposed to estimate the parameters involved in the model yielding a joint linear unmixing and anomaly detection algorithm. Simulations conducted with synthetic and real hyperspectral images demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed unmixing and outlier detection strategy for the analysis of hyperspectral images

Deep Exponential Families

We describe \textit{deep exponential families} (DEFs), a class of latent variable models that are inspired by the hidden structures used in deep neural networks. DEFs capture a hierarchy of dependencies between latent variables, and are easily generalized to many settings through exponential families. We perform inference using recent "black box" variational inference techniques. We then evaluate various DEFs on text and combine multiple DEFs into a model for pairwise recommendation data. In an extensive study, we show that going beyond one layer improves predictions for DEFs. We demonstrate that DEFs find interesting exploratory structure in large data sets, and give better predictive performance than state-of-the-art models