Modelling user behaviour at a stochastic road traffic bottleneck

Congestion in road traffic has received substantial attention in the research literature. One popular approach to modelling congesting and user response is the seminal bottleneck model introduced by Vickrey [25]. Here traffic is modelled as a fluid, and all travellers are subject to cost for waiting, early departure, and late departure. The travellers' response to the congestion is captured by assuming that they arrive at the bottleneck according to a Wardrop equilibrium, meaning that no traveller can decrease its costs by shifting its arrival time. This model and its extensions have been extensively studied in the research literature, but ignore the fact that road traffic consists of individual travellers with uncertain arrival time and speed. While the fluid approach used in the Vickrey model may be correct when the number of travellers is large, it fails to yield accurate predictions for a small number of travellers.In the present paper we propose a stochastic version of the bottleneck model, that can also handle smaller number of travellers. We discuss the error made by the fluid approximation, and show that the Wardrop equilibrium results in highly varying costs when applied in the more realistic setting with stochasticity. We then discuss an algorithm for numerically computing the equilibrium arrival rate for the stochastic bottleneck model, and propose a closed-form estimation for this equilibrium. This can be used for future studies into the effect of stochasticity in these bottleneck models.</p

Distribution planning in a weather-dependent scenario with stochastic travel times: a simheuristics approach

In real-life logistics, distribution plans might be affected by weather conditions (rain, snow, and fog), since they might have a significant effect on traveling times and, therefore, on total distribution costs. In this paper, the distribution problem is modeled as a multi-depot vehicle routing problem with stochastic traveling times. These traveling times are not only stochastic in nature but the specific probability distribution used to model them depends on the particular weather conditions on the delivery day. In order to solve the aforementioned problem, a simheuristic approach combining simulation within a biased-randomized heuristic framework is proposed. As the computational experiments will show, our simulation-optimization algorithm is able to provide high-quality solutions to this NP-hard problem in short computing times even for large-scale instances. From a managerial perspective, such a tool can be very useful in practical applications since it helps to increase the efficiency of the logistics and transportation operations.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Distribution planning in a weather-dependent scenario with stochastic travel times: a simheuristics approach

In real-life logistics, distribution plans might be affected by weather conditions (rain, snow, and fog), since they might have a significant effect on traveling times and, therefore, on total distribution costs. In this paper, the distribution problem is modeled as a multi-depot vehicle routing problem with stochastic traveling times. These traveling times are not only stochastic in nature but the specific probability distribution used to model them depends on the particular weather conditions on the delivery day. In order to solve the aforementioned problem, a simheuristic approach combining simulation within a biased-randomized heuristic framework is proposed. As the computational experiments will show, our simulation-optimization algorithm is able to provide high-quality solutions to this NP-hard problem in short computing times even for large-scale instances. From a managerial perspective, such a tool can be very useful in practical applications since it helps to increase the efficiency of the logistics and transportation operations.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

On green routing and scheduling problem

The vehicle routing and scheduling problem has been studied with much interest within the last four decades. In this paper, some of the existing literature dealing with routing and scheduling problems with environmental issues is reviewed, and a description is provided of the problems that have been investigated and how they are treated using combinatorial optimization tools

Multiobjective Tactical Planning under Uncertainty for Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management

We investigate a method to deal with congestion of sectors and delays in the tactical phase of air traffic flow and capacity management. It relies on temporal objectives given for every point of the flight plans and shared among the controllers in order to create a collaborative environment. This would enhance the transition from the network view of the flow management to the local view of air traffic control. Uncertainty is modeled at the trajectory level with temporal information on the boundary points of the crossed sectors and then, we infer the probabilistic occupancy count. Therefore, we can model the accuracy of the trajectory prediction in the optimization process in order to fix some safety margins. On the one hand, more accurate is our prediction; more efficient will be the proposed solutions, because of the tighter safety margins. On the other hand, when uncertainty is not negligible, the proposed solutions will be more robust to disruptions. Furthermore, a multiobjective algorithm is used to find the tradeoff between the delays and congestion, which are antagonist in airspace with high traffic density. The flow management position can choose manually, or automatically with a preference-based algorithm, the adequate solution. This method is tested against two instances, one with 10 flights and 5 sectors and one with 300 flights and 16 sectors.Comment: IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (2013). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1309.391

"Pricing the major hub airports"

Implementing congestion pricing at twenty-seven major US airports would reduce delays by thirteen passenger-years and one thousand aircraft-hours every day, saving three to five million dollars. Chicago and Atlanta would save about one thousand dollars per aircraft. Airport revenues would increase about eleven million dollars daily. A bottleneck model with stochastic queues estimates substantial welfare gains whether or not airlines internalize self-imposed delays. Erroneously imposing fees from the non-internalizing specification on internalizing airlines, however, would be a costly mistake. The model calculates equilibrium traffic rates, queuing delays, layover times, connection times, and congestion fee schedules by minute of the day.airport congestion pricing, stochastic queuing, bottleneck model.

User equilibrium traffic network assignment with stochastic travel times and late arrival penalty

The classical Wardrop user equilibrium (UE) assignment model assumes traveller choices are based on fixed, known travel times, yet these times are known to be rather variable between trips, both within and between days; typically, then, only mean travel times are represented. Classical stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) methods allow the mean travel times to be differentially perceived across the population, yet in a conventional application neither the UE or SUE approach recognises the travel times to be inherently variable. That is to say, there is no recognition that drivers risk arriving late at their destinations, and that this risk may vary across different paths of the network and according to the arrival time flexibility of the traveller. Recent work on incorporating risky elements into the choice process is seen either to neglect the link to the arrival constraints of the traveller, or to apply only to restricted problems with parallel alternatives and inflexible travel time distributions. In the paper, an alternative approach is described based on the ‘schedule delay’ paradigm, penalising late arrival under fixed departure times. The approach allows flexible travel time densities, which can be fitted to actual surveillance data, to be incorporated. A generalised formulation of UE is proposed, termed a Late Arrival Penalised UE (LAPUE). Conditions for the existence and uniqueness of LAPUE solutions are considered, as well as methods for their computation. Two specific travel time models are then considered, one based on multivariate Normal arc travel times, and an extended model to represent arc incidents, based on mixture distributions of multivariate Normals. Several illustrative examples are used to examine the sensitivity of LAPUE solutions to various input parameters, and in particular its comparison with UE predictions. Finally, paths for further research are discussed, including the extension of the model to include elements such as distributed arrival time constraints and penalties

Price of Anarchy for Non-atomic Congestion Games with Stochastic Demands

We generalize the notions of user equilibrium and system optimum to non-atomic congestion games with stochastic demands. We establish upper bounds on the price of anarchy for three different settings of link cost functions and demand distributions, namely, (a) affine cost functions and general distributions, (b) polynomial cost functions and general positive-valued distributions, and (c) polynomial cost functions and the normal distributions. All the upper bounds are tight in some special cases, including the case of deterministic demands.Comment: 31 page