Regions of rationality: Maps for bounded agents

An important problem in descriptive and prescriptive research in decision making is to identify “regions of rationality,” i.e., the areas for which heuristics are and are not effective. To map the contours of such regions, we derive probabilities that heuristics identify the best of m alternatives (m > 2) characterized by k attributes or cues (k > 1). The heuristics include a single variable (lexicographic), variations of elimination-by-aspects, equal weighting, hybrids of the preceding, and models exploiting dominance. We use twenty simulated and four empirical datasets for illustration. We further provide an overview by regressing heuristic performance on factors characterizing environments. Overall, “sensible” heuristics generally yield similar choices in many environments. However, selection of the appropriate heuristic can be important in some regions (e.g., if there is low inter-correlation among attributes/cues). Since our work assumes a “hit or miss” decision criterion, we conclude by outlining extensions for exploring the effects of different loss functions.Decision making, Bounded rationality, Lexicographic rules, Choice theory, Leex

A review of multi-criteria decision making methods for enhanced maintenance delivery

Conventionally there is a strong relation between manufacturing and services in complex engineering industries. For companies which aim to last in the competitive manufacturing market choosing appropriate decision making methods to improve their maintenance delivery has a vital role. The aim of this paper is to review Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) models, evaluate each method and do a critical comparison to assess them from a maintenance management point of view. The first section of this paper reviews MCDM methods in different literature, and then the second part develops a set of criteria to classify different techniques. At the end methods are compared based on developed criteria. This paper assesses different MCDM models, and provides a framework to select approaches for maintenance management

Assessing the Value of Time Travel Savings – A Feasibility Study on Humberside.

It is expected that the opening of the Humber Bridge will cause major changes to travel patterns around Humberside; given the level of tolls as currently stated, many travellers will face decisions involving a trade-off between travel time, money outlay on tolls or fares and money outlay on private vehicle running costs; this either in the context of destination choice, mode choice or route choice. This report sets out the conclusions of a preliminary study of the feasibility of inferring values of travel time savings from observations made on the outcomes of these decisions. Methods based on aggregate data of destination choice are found t o be inefficient; a disaggregate mode choice study i s recommended, subject to caveats on sample size

Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets

This paper develops a flexible multi-dimensional assessment method for the comparison of different statistical-econometric techniques based on learning mechanisms with a view to analysing and forecasting regional labour markets. The aim of this paper is twofold. A first major objective is to explore the use of a standard choice tool, namely Multicriteria Analysis (MCA), in order to cope with the intrinsic methodological uncertainty on the choice of a suitable statistical-econometric learning technique for regional labour market analysis. MCA is applied here to support choices on the performance of various models -based on classes of Neural Network (NN) techniques-that serve to generate employment forecasts in West Germany at a regional/district level. A second objective of the paper is to analyse the methodological potential of a blend of approaches (NN-MCA) in order to extend the analysis framework to other economic research domains, where formal models are not available, but where a variety of statistical data is present. The paper offers a basis for a more balanced judgement of the performance of rival statistical tests

ADHD-associated risk taking is linked to exaggerated views of the benefits of positive outcomes

Attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is often assumed to be associated with increased engagement in risk-taking behaviors. The current study sought to understand the mental processes underlying this association using a theory-driven behavioral economics perspective. Psychological risk-return models suggest that risk and benefit are inherently subjective, and risk taking is best understood as the interplay between cognitions and motivations regarding the benefits and risks of alternatives. A sample of 244 adults was assessed for ADHD symptoms. The likelihood of engagement in a range of risky behaviors (e.g., driving without wearing a seat belt), the magnitude of perceived benefit and risk ascribed to these behaviors, and benefit and risk attitudes of each participant were extracted from the Domain Specific Risk Taking (DOSPERT) scales. ADHD symptoms were correlated with more risky behaviors and perception of greater benefits from engaging in these behaviors, but were not correlated with risk perception. Mediation analysis revealed that the association between ADHD symptoms and engagement in risk taking was mediated by perceived benefits. These findings highlight the idea that people with high level ADHD symptoms tend to engage in risky behaviors because they find such behavior particularly appealing, rather than because they seek risk per se

Marketing Portfolio Choices by Independent Peach Growers: An Application of the Polychotomous Selection Model

In selecting a marketing channel for fresh peach sales, Georgia commercial peach growers choose the channel after accounting for buyers' preferences for quality attributes. Using the polychotomous selection model and survey data we identified external and internal quality attributes as essential factors influencing the choice of a marketing channel and the share of the crop marketed. Other factors influencing the choice and the volume sold through each marketing channel included orchard characteristics and the variety-determined fruit maturity.Marketing,