142,460 research outputs found
A source modelling system and its use for uncertainty management
Human agents have to deal with a considerable amount of information from their environment and are also continuously faced with the need to take actions. As that information is largely of an uncertain nature, human agents have to decide whether, or how much, to believe individual pieces of information. To enable a reasoning system to deal in general with the demands of a real environment, and with information from human sources in particular, requires tools for uncertainty management and belief formation. This thesis presents a model for the management of uncertain information from human sources. Dealing, more specifically, with information which has been pre-processed by a natural language processor and transformed into an event-based representation, the model assesses information, forms beliefs and resolves conflicts between them in order to maintain a consistent world model. The approach is built on the fundamental principle that the uncertainty of information from people can, in the majority of situations, successfully be assessed through source models which record factors concerning the source's abilities and trustworthiness. These models are adjusted to reflect changes in the behaviour of the source. A mechanism is presented together with the underlying principles to reproduce such a behaviour. A high-level design is also given to make the proposed model reconstructible, and the successful operation of the model is demonstrated on two detailed examples
Development and testing of a risk indexing framework to determine field-scale critical source areas of faecal bacteria on grassland.
This paper draws on lessons from a UK case study in the management of diffuse microbial pollution from grassland farm systems in the Taw catchment, south west England. We report on the development and preliminary testing of a field-scale faecal indicator organism risk indexing tool (FIORIT). This tool aims to prioritise those fields most vulnerable in terms of their risk of contributing FIOs to water. FIORIT risk indices were related to recorded microbial water quality parameters (faecal coliforms [FC] and intestinal enterococci [IE]) to provide a concurrent on-farm evaluation of the tool. There was a significant upward trend in Log[FC] and Log[IE] values with FIORIT risk score classification (r2 =0.87 and 0.70, respectively and P<0.01 for both FIOs). The FIORIT was then applied to 162 representative grassland fields through different seasons for ten farms in the case study catchment to determine the distribution of on-farm spatial and temporal risk. The high risk fields made up only a small proportion (1%, 2%, 2% and 3% for winter, spring, summer and autumn, respectively) of the total number of fields assessed (and less than 10% of the total area), but the likelihood of the hydrological connection of high FIO source areas to receiving watercourses makes them a priority for mitigation efforts. The FIORIT provides a preliminary and evolving mechanism through which we can combine risk assessment with risk communication to end-users and provides a framework for prioritising future empirical research. Continued testing of FIORIT across different geographical areas under both low and high flow conditions is now needed to initiate its long term development into a robust indexing tool
TWINLATIN: Twinning European and Latin-American river basins for research enabling sustainable water resources management. Combined Report D3.1 Hydrological modelling report and D3.2 Evaluation report
Water use has almost tripled over the past 50 years and in some regions the water demand already
exceeds supply (Vorosmarty et al., 2000). The world is facing a âglobal water crisisâ; in many
countries, current levels of water use are unsustainable, with systems vulnerable to collapse from even
small changes in water availability. The need for a scientifically-based assessment of the potential
impacts on water resources of future changes, as a basis for society to adapt to such changes, is strong
for most parts of the world. Although the focus of such assessments has tended to be climate change,
socio-economic changes can have as significant an impact on water availability across the four main
use sectors i.e. domestic, agricultural, industrial (including energy) and environmental. Withdrawal
and consumption of water is expected to continue to grow substantially over the next 20-50 years
(Cosgrove & Rijsberman, 2002), and consequent changes in availability may drastically affect society
and economies.
One of the most needed improvements in Latin American river basin management is a higher level of
detail in hydrological modelling and erosion risk assessment, as a basis for identification and analysis
of mitigation actions, as well as for analysis of global change scenarios. Flow measurements are too
costly to be realised at more than a few locations, which means that modelled data are required for the
rest of the basin. Hence, TWINLATIN Work Package 3 âHydrological modelling and extremesâ was
formulated to provide methods and tools to be used by other WPs, in particular WP6 on âPollution
pressure and impact analysisâ and WP8 on âChange effects and vulnerability assessmentâ. With an
emphasis on high and low flows and their impacts, WP3 was originally called âHydrological
modelling, flooding, erosion, water scarcity and water abstractionâ. However, at the TWINLATIN
kick-off meeting it was agreed that some of these issues resided more appropriately in WP6 and WP8,
and so WP3 was renamed to focus on hydrological modelling and hydrological extremes.
The specific objectives of WP3 as set out in the Description of Work are
Modelling spatial and inter-annual variations of nitrous oxide emissions from UK cropland and grasslands using DailyDayCent
This work contributes to the Defra funded projects AC0116: âImproving the nitrous oxide inventoryâ, and AC0114: âData Synthesis, Management and Modellingâ. Funding for this work was provided by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) AC0116 and AC0114, the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs for Northern Ireland, the Scottish Government and the Welsh Government. Rothamsted Research receives strategic funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council. This study also contributes to the projects: N-Circle (BB/N013484/1), U-GRASS (NE/M016900/1) and GREENHOUSE (NE/K002589/1).Peer reviewedPublisher PD
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