Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

EMMIX-uskew: An R Package for Fitting Mixtures of Multivariate Skew t-distributions via the EM Algorithm

This paper describes an algorithm for fitting finite mixtures of unrestricted Multivariate Skew t (FM-uMST) distributions. The package EMMIX-uskew implements a closed-form expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for computing the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the parameters for the (unrestricted) FM-MST model in R. EMMIX-uskew also supports visualization of fitted contours in two and three dimensions, and random sample generation from a specified FM-uMST distribution. Finite mixtures of skew t-distributions have proven to be useful in modelling heterogeneous data with asymmetric and heavy tail behaviour, for example, datasets from flow cytometry. In recent years, various versions of mixtures with multivariate skew t (MST) distributions have been proposed. However, these models adopted some restricted characterizations of the component MST distributions so that the E-step of the EM algorithm can be evaluated in closed form. This paper focuses on mixtures with unrestricted MST components, and describes an iterative algorithm for the computation of the ML estimates of its model parameters. The usefulness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated in three applications to real data sets. The first example illustrates the use of the main function fmmst in the package by fitting a MST distribution to a bivariate unimodal flow cytometric sample. The second example fits a mixture of MST distributions to the Australian Institute of Sport (AIS) data, and demonstrate that EMMIX-uskew can provide better clustering results than mixtures with restricted MST components. In the third example, EMMIX-uskew is applied to classify cells in a trivariate flow cytometric dataset. Comparisons with other available methods suggests that the EMMIX-uskew result achieved a lower misclassification rate with respect to the labels given by benchmark gating analysis

Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portfolio analysis using classes of economically and psychologically relevant multi-step ahead portfolio utility functions. Studies with multivariate currency, commodity and stock index time series illustrate the approach and show some of the practical utility and benefits of the Bayesian emulation methodology.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 table