Best-subset Selection for Complex Systems using Agent-based Simulation

It is difficult to analyze and determine strategies to control complex systems due to their inherent complexity. The complex interactions among elements make it difficult to develop and test decision makers' intuition of how the system will behave under different policies. Computer models are often used to simulate the system and to observe both direct and indirect effects of alternative interventions. However, many decision makers are unwilling to concede complete control to a computer model because of the abstractions in the model, and the other factors that cannot be modeled, such as physical, human, social and organizational relationship constraints. This dissertation develops an agent-based simulation (ABS) model to analyze a complex system and its policy alternatives, and contributes a best-subset selection (BSS) procedure that provides a group of good performing alternatives to which decision makers can then apply their subject and context knowledge in making a final decision for implementation. As a specific example of a complex system, a mass casualty incident (MCI) response system was simulated using an ABS model consisting of three interrelated sub-systems. The model was then validated by a series of sensitivity analysis experiments. The model provides a good test bed to evaluate various evacuation policies. In order to find the best policy that minimizes the overall mortality, two ranking-and-selection (R&S) procedures from the literature (Rinott (1978) and Kim and Nelson (2001)) were implemented and compared. Then a new best-subset selection (BSS) procedure was developed to efficiently select a statistically guaranteed best-subset containing all alternatives that are close enough to the best one for a pre-specified probability. Extensive numerical experiments were organized to prove the effectiveness and demonstrate the performance of the BSS procedure. The BSS procedure was then implemented in conjunction with the MCI ABS model to select the best evacuation policies. The experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of our agent-based optimization methodology for complex system policy evaluation and selection

Proceedings of the Symposium on Concrete Modelling, CONMOD2018

CONMOD2018 is a symposium on Concrete Modelling which is jointly organised by Delft University and Ghent University as part of the RILEM week 2018 in Delft, The Netherlands. The symposium is the 5th in a series dealing with all aspects concerning modelling of concrete at various scales. The symposium consist of 3 key-note papers and 62 regular papers presented over 3 days. Parallel to the CONMOD2018 symposium a conference on Service Life Design (SLD4) and a workshop honouring Professor Klaas van Breugel were organised with topics that are related to concrete modelling. In total more than 350 participants took part in the events organised during the RILEM week 2018

Lattice-gas cellular automata for the analysis of cancer invasion

Cancer cells display characteristic traits acquired in a step-wise manner during carcinogenesis. Some of these traits are autonomous growth, induction of angiogenesis, invasion and metastasis. In this thesis, the focus is on one of the latest stages of tumor progression, tumor invasion. Tumor invasion emerges from the combined effect of tumor cell-cell and cell-microenvironment interactions, which can be studied with the help of mathematical analysis. Cellular automata (CA) can be viewed as simple models of self-organizing complex systems in which collective behavior can emerge out of an ensemble of many interacting "simple" components. In particular, we focus on an important class of CA, the so-called lattice-gas cellular automata (LGCA). In contrast to traditional CA, LGCA provide a straightforward and intuitive implementation of particle transport and interactions. Additionally, the structure of LGCA facilitates the mathematical analysis of their behavior. Here, the principal tools of mathematical analysis of LGCA are the mean-field approximation and the corresponding Lattice Boltzmann equation. The main objective of this thesis is to investigate important aspects of tumor invasion, under the microscope of mathematical modeling and analysis: Impact of the tumor environment: We introduce a LGCA as a microscopic model of tumor cell migration together with a mathematical description of different tumor environments. We study the impact of the various tumor environments (such as extracellular matrix) on tumor cell migration by estimating the tumor cell dispersion speed for a given environment. Effect of tumor cell proliferation and migration: We study the effect of tumor cell proliferation and migration on the tumor’s invasive behavior by developing a simplified LGCA model of tumor growth. In particular, we derive the corresponding macroscopic dynamics and we calculate the tumor’s invasion speed in terms of tumor cell proliferation and migration rates. Moreover, we calculate the width of the invasive zone, where the majority of mitotic activity is concentrated, and it is found to be proportional to the invasion speed. Mechanisms of tumor invasion emergence: We investigate the mechanisms for the emergence of tumor invasion in the course of cancer progression. We conclude that the response of a microscopic intracellular mechanism (migration/proliferation dichotomy) to oxygen shortage, i.e. hypoxia, maybe responsible for the transition from a benign (proliferative) to a malignant (invasive) tumor. Computing in vivo tumor invasion: Finally, we propose an evolutionary algorithm that estimates the parameters of a tumor growth LGCA model based on time-series of patient medical data (in particular Magnetic Resonance and Diffusion Tensor Imaging data). These parameters may allow to reproduce clinically relevant tumor growth scenarios for a specific patient, providing a prediction of the tumor growth at a later time stage.Krebszellen zeigen charakteristische Merkmale, die sie in einem schrittweisen Vorgang während der Karzinogenese erworben haben. Einige dieser Merkmale sind autonomes Wachstum, die Induktion von Angiogenese, Invasion und Metastasis. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit liegt auf der Tumorinvasion, einer der letzten Phasen der Tumorprogression. Die Tumorinvasion ensteht aus der kombinierten Wirkung von den Wechselwirkungen Tumorzelle-Zelle und Zelle-Mikroumgebung, die mit die Hilfe von mathematischer Analyse untersucht werden können. Zelluläre Automaten (CA) können als einfache Modelle von selbst-organisierenden komplexen Systemen betrachtet werden, in denen kollektives Verhalten aus einer Kombination von vielen interagierenden "einfachen" Komponenten entstehen kann. Insbesondere konzentrieren wir uns auf eine wichtige CA-Klasse, die sogenannten Zelluläre Gitter-Gas Automaten (LGCA). Im Gegensatz zu traditionellen CA bieten LGCA eine einfache und intuitive Umsetzung der Teilchen und Wechselwirkungen. Zusätzlich erleichtert die Struktur der LGCA die mathematische Analyse ihres Verhaltens. Die wichtigsten Werkzeuge der mathematischen Analyse der LGCA sind hier die Mean-field Approximation und die entsprechende Lattice - Boltzmann - Gleichung. Das wichtigste Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, wichtige Aspekte der Tumorinvasion unter dem Mikroskop der mathematischen Modellierung und Analyse zu erforschen: Auswirkungen der Tumorumgebung: Wir stellen einen LGCA als mikroskopisches Modell der Tumorzellen-Migration in Verbindung mit einer mathematischen Beschreibung der verschiedenen Tumorumgebungen vor. Wir untersuchen die Auswirkungen der verschiedenen Tumorumgebungen (z. B. extrazellulären Matrix) auf die Migration von Tumorzellen dürch Schätzung der Tumorzellen-Dispersionsgeschwindigkeit in einem gegebenen Umfeld. Wirkung von Tumor-Zellenproliferation und Migration: Wir untersuchen die Wirkung von Tumorzellenproliferation und Migration auf das invasive Verhalten der Tumorzellen durch die Entwicklung eines vereinfachten LGCA Tumorwachstumsmodells. Wir leiten die entsprechende makroskopische Dynamik und berechnen die Tumorinvasionsgeschwindigkeit im Hinblick auf die Tumorzellenproliferation- und Migrationswerte. Darüber hinaus berechnen wir die Breite der invasiven Zone, wo die Mehrheit der mitotischer Aktivität konzentriert ist, und es wird festgestellt, dass diese proportional zu den Invasionsgeschwindigkeit ist. Mechanismen der Tumorinvasion Entstehung: Wir untersuchen Mechanismen, die für die Entstehung von Tumorinvasion im Verlauf des Krebs zuständig sind. Wir kommen zu dem Schluss, dass die Reaktion eines mikroskopischen intrazellulären Mechanismus (Migration/Proliferation Dichotomie) zu Sauerstoffmangel, d.h. Hypoxie, möglicheweise für den Übergang von einem gutartigen (proliferative) zu einer bösartigen (invasive) Tumor verantwortlich ist. Berechnung der in-vivo Tumorinvasion: Schließlich schlagen wir einen evolutionären Algorithmus vor, der die Parameter eines LGCA Modells von Tumorwachstum auf der Grundlage von medizinischen Daten des Patienten für mehrere Zeitpunkte (insbesondere die Magnet-Resonanz-und Diffusion Tensor Imaging Daten) ermöglicht. Diese Parameter erlauben Szenarien für einen klinisch relevanten Tumorwachstum für einen bestimmten Patienten zu reproduzieren, die eine Vorhersage des Tumorwachstums zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt möglich machen

Online optimization of casualty processing in major incident response: An experimental analysis

When designing an optimization model for use in mass casualty incident (MCI) response, the dynamic and uncertain nature of the problem environment poses a significant challenge. Many key problem parameters, such as the number of casualties to be processed, will typically change as the response operation progresses. Other parameters, such as the time required to complete key response tasks, must be estimated and are therefore prone to errors. In this work we extend a multi-objective combinatorial optimization model for MCI response to improve performance in dynamic and uncertain environments. The model is developed to allow for use in real time, with continuous communication between the optimization model and problem environment. A simulation of this problem environment is described, allowing for a series of computational experiments evaluating how model utility is influenced by a range of key dynamic or uncertain problem and model characteristics. It is demonstrated that the move to an online system mitigates against poor communication speed, while errors in the estimation of task duration parameters are shown to significantly reduce model utility

Dynamics of Shape Memory Alloys Patches with Mechanically Induced Transformations

A mathematical model is constructed for the modelling of two di- mensional thermo-mechanical behavior of shape memory alloy patches. The model is constructed on the basis of a modified Landau-Ginzburg theory and includes the coupling effect between thermal and mechanical fields. The free energy functional for the model is exemplified for the square to rectangular transformations. The model, based on nonlinear coupled partial differential equations, is reduced to a system of differential-algebraic equations and the backward differentiation methodology is used for its numerical analysis. Computational experiments with representative distributed mechanical loadings are carried out for patches of different sizes to analyze thermo-mechanical waves, coupling effects, and 2D phase transformations