13,881 research outputs found
Calculation of aggregate loss distributions
Estimation of the operational risk capital under the Loss Distribution
Approach requires evaluation of aggregate (compound) loss distributions which
is one of the classic problems in risk theory. Closed-form solutions are not
available for the distributions typically used in operational risk. However
with modern computer processing power, these distributions can be calculated
virtually exactly using numerical methods. This paper reviews numerical
algorithms that can be successfully used to calculate the aggregate loss
distributions. In particular Monte Carlo, Panjer recursion and Fourier
transformation methods are presented and compared. Also, several closed-form
approximations based on moment matching and asymptotic result for heavy-tailed
distributions are reviewed
Computing Tails of Compound Distributions Using Direct Numerical Integration
An efficient adaptive direct numerical integration (DNI) algorithm is
developed for computing high quantiles and conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) of
compound distributions using characteristic functions. A key innovation of the
numerical scheme is an effective tail integration approximation that reduces
the truncation errors significantly with little extra effort. High precision
results of the 0.999 quantile and CVaR were obtained for compound losses with
heavy tails and a very wide range of loss frequencies using the DNI, Fast
Fourier Transform (FFT) and Monte Carlo (MC) methods. These results,
particularly relevant to operational risk modelling, can serve as benchmarks
for comparing different numerical methods. We found that the adaptive DNI can
achieve high accuracy with relatively coarse grids. It is much faster than MC
and competitive with FFT in computing high quantiles and CVaR of compound
distributions in the case of moderate to high frequencies and heavy tails
Fast Generation of Discrete Random Variables
We describe two methods and provide C programs for generating discrete random variables with functions that are simple and fast, averaging ten times as fast as published methods and more than five times as fast as the fastest of those. We provide general procedures for implementing the two methods, as well as specific procedures for three of the most important discrete distributions: Poisson, binomial and hypergeometric.
On the Inversion of High Energy Proton
Inversion of the K-fold stochastic autoconvolution integral equation is an
elementary nonlinear problem, yet there are no de facto methods to solve it
with finite statistics. To fix this problem, we introduce a novel inverse
algorithm based on a combination of minimization of relative entropy, the Fast
Fourier Transform and a recursive version of Efron's bootstrap. This gives us
power to obtain new perspectives on non-perturbative high energy QCD, such as
probing the ab initio principles underlying the approximately negative binomial
distributions of observed charged particle final state multiplicities, related
to multiparton interactions, the fluctuating structure and profile of proton
and diffraction. As a proof-of-concept, we apply the algorithm to ALICE
proton-proton charged particle multiplicity measurements done at different
center-of-mass energies and fiducial pseudorapidity intervals at the LHC,
available on HEPData. A strong double peak structure emerges from the
inversion, barely visible without it.Comment: 29 pages, 10 figures, v2: extended analysis (re-projection ratios,
2D
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