42,588 research outputs found
Relation between higher order comoments and dependence structure of equity portfolio
We study a relation between higher order comoments and dependence structure of equity portfolio in the US and UK by relying on a simple portfolio approach where equity portfolios are sorted on the higher order comoments. We find that beta and coskewness are positively related with a copula correlation, whereas cokurtosis is negatively related with it. We also find that beta positively associates with an asymmetric tail dependence whilst coskewness negatively associates with it. Furthermore, two extreme equity portfolios sorted on the higher order comoments are closely correlated and their dependence structure is strongly time varying and nonlinear. Backtesting results of value-at-risk and expected shortfall demonstrate the importance of dynamic modeling of asymmetric tail dependence in the risk management of extreme events
Copulas in finance and insurance
Copulas provide a potential useful modeling tool to represent the dependence structure
among variables and to generate joint distributions by combining given marginal
distributions. Simulations play a relevant role in finance and insurance. They are used to
replicate efficient frontiers or extremal values, to price options, to estimate joint risks, and so
on. Using copulas, it is easy to construct and simulate from multivariate distributions based
on almost any choice of marginals and any type of dependence structure. In this paper we
outline recent contributions of statistical modeling using copulas in finance and insurance.
We review issues related to the notion of copulas, copula families, copula-based dynamic and
static dependence structure, copulas and latent factor models and simulation of copulas.
Finally, we outline hot topics in copulas with a special focus on model selection and
goodness-of-fit testing
A Fully Nonparametric Modelling Approach to Binary Regression
We propose a general nonparametric Bayesian framework for binary regression,
which is built from modeling for the joint response-covariate distribution. The
observed binary responses are assumed to arise from underlying continuous
random variables through discretization, and we model the joint distribution of
these latent responses and the covariates using a Dirichlet process mixture of
multivariate normals. We show that the kernel of the induced mixture model for
the observed data is identifiable upon a restriction on the latent variables.
To allow for appropriate dependence structure while facilitating
identifiability, we use a square-root-free Cholesky decomposition of the
covariance matrix in the normal mixture kernel. In addition to allowing for the
necessary restriction, this modeling strategy provides substantial
simplifications in implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior
simulation. We present two data examples taken from areas for which the
methodology is especially well suited. In particular, the first example
involves estimation of relationships between environmental variables, and the
second develops inference for natural selection surfaces in evolutionary
biology. Finally, we discuss extensions to regression settings with
multivariate ordinal responses
Implementing Loss Distribution Approach for Operational Risk
To quantify the operational risk capital charge under the current regulatory
framework for banking supervision, referred to as Basel II, many banks adopt
the Loss Distribution Approach. There are many modeling issues that should be
resolved to use the approach in practice. In this paper we review the
quantitative methods suggested in literature for implementation of the
approach. In particular, the use of the Bayesian inference method that allows
to take expert judgement and parameter uncertainty into account, modeling
dependence and inclusion of insurance are discussed
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