14,146 research outputs found

    Accelerated Iterated Filtering

    Get PDF
    Simulation-based inferences have attracted much attention in recent years, as the direct computation of the likelihood function in many real-world problems is difficult or even impossible. Iterated filtering (Ionides, Bretó, and King 2006; Ionides, Bhadra, Atchadé, and King 2011) enables maximization of likelihood function via model perturbations and approximation of the gradient of loglikelihood through sequential Monte Carlo filtering. By an application of Stein’s identity, Doucet, Jacob, and Rubenthaler (2013) developed a second-order approximation of the gradient of log-likelihood using sequential Monte Carlo smoothing. Based on these gradient approximations, we develop a new algorithm for maximizing the likelihood using the Nesterov accelerated gradient. We adopt the accelerated inexact gradient algorithm (Ghadimi and Lan 2016) to iterated filtering framework, relaxing the unbiased gradient approximation condition. We devise a perturbation policy for iterated filtering, allowing the new algorithm to converge at an optimal rate for both concave and non-concave log-likelihood functions. It is comparable to the recently developed Bayes map iterated filtering approach and outperforms the original iterated filtering approach

    Do We Need Experts for Time Series Forecasting?

    Get PDF
    This study examines a selection of off-the-shelf forecastingand forecast combination algorithms with a focus on assessing their practical relevance by drawing conclusions for non-expert users. Some of the methods have only recently been introduced and have not been part in comparative empirical evaluations before. Considering the advances of forecasting techniques, this analysis addresses the question whether we need human expertise for forecasting or whether the investigated methods provide comparable performance

    Unified Heat Kernel Regression for Diffusion, Kernel Smoothing and Wavelets on Manifolds and Its Application to Mandible Growth Modeling in CT Images

    Full text link
    We present a novel kernel regression framework for smoothing scalar surface data using the Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions. Starting with the heat kernel constructed from the eigenfunctions, we formulate a new bivariate kernel regression framework as a weighted eigenfunction expansion with the heat kernel as the weights. The new kernel regression is mathematically equivalent to isotropic heat diffusion, kernel smoothing and recently popular diffusion wavelets. Unlike many previous partial differential equation based approaches involving diffusion, our approach represents the solution of diffusion analytically, reducing numerical inaccuracy and slow convergence. The numerical implementation is validated on a unit sphere using spherical harmonics. As an illustration, we have applied the method in characterizing the localized growth pattern of mandible surfaces obtained in CT images from subjects between ages 0 and 20 years by regressing the length of displacement vectors with respect to the template surface.Comment: Accepted in Medical Image Analysi

    Optimization viewpoint on Kalman smoothing, with applications to robust and sparse estimation

    Full text link
    In this paper, we present the optimization formulation of the Kalman filtering and smoothing problems, and use this perspective to develop a variety of extensions and applications. We first formulate classic Kalman smoothing as a least squares problem, highlight special structure, and show that the classic filtering and smoothing algorithms are equivalent to a particular algorithm for solving this problem. Once this equivalence is established, we present extensions of Kalman smoothing to systems with nonlinear process and measurement models, systems with linear and nonlinear inequality constraints, systems with outliers in the measurements or sudden changes in the state, and systems where the sparsity of the state sequence must be accounted for. All extensions preserve the computational efficiency of the classic algorithms, and most of the extensions are illustrated with numerical examples, which are part of an open source Kalman smoothing Matlab/Octave package.Comment: 46 pages, 11 figure

    Replica Conditional Sequential Monte Carlo

    Get PDF
    We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to perform state inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. Current state-of-the-art methods to address this problem rely on particle MCMC techniques and its variants, such as the iterated conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) scheme, which uses a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) type proposal within MCMC. A deficiency of standard SMC proposals is that they only use observations up to time tt to propose states at time tt when an entire observation sequence is available. More sophisticated SMC based on lookahead techniques could be used but they can be difficult to put in practice. We propose here replica cSMC where we build SMC proposals for one replica using information from the entire observation sequence by conditioning on the states of the other replicas. This approach is easily parallelizable and we demonstrate its excellent empirical performance when compared to the standard iterated cSMC scheme at fixed computational complexity.Comment: To appear in Proceedings of ICML '1

    Fast space-variant elliptical filtering using box splines

    Get PDF
    The efficient realization of linear space-variant (non-convolution) filters is a challenging computational problem in image processing. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to filter an image with a Gaussian-like elliptic window of varying size, elongation and orientation using a fixed number of computations per pixel. The associated algorithm, which is based on a family of smooth compactly supported piecewise polynomials, the radially-uniform box splines, is realized using pre-integration and local finite-differences. The radially-uniform box splines are constructed through the repeated convolution of a fixed number of box distributions, which have been suitably scaled and distributed radially in an uniform fashion. The attractive features of these box splines are their asymptotic behavior, their simple covariance structure, and their quasi-separability. They converge to Gaussians with the increase of their order, and are used to approximate anisotropic Gaussians of varying covariance simply by controlling the scales of the constituent box distributions. Based on the second feature, we develop a technique for continuously controlling the size, elongation and orientation of these Gaussian-like functions. Finally, the quasi-separable structure, along with a certain scaling property of box distributions, is used to efficiently realize the associated space-variant elliptical filtering, which requires O(1) computations per pixel irrespective of the shape and size of the filter.Comment: 12 figures; IEEE Transactions on Image Processing, vol. 19, 201
    corecore