14,146 research outputs found
Accelerated Iterated Filtering
Simulation-based inferences have attracted much attention in recent years, as the direct computation of the likelihood function in many real-world problems is difficult or even impossible. Iterated filtering (Ionides, Bretó, and King 2006; Ionides, Bhadra, Atchadé,
and King 2011) enables maximization of likelihood function via model perturbations and approximation of the gradient of loglikelihood through sequential Monte Carlo filtering. By an application of Stein’s identity, Doucet, Jacob, and Rubenthaler (2013) developed a
second-order approximation of the gradient of log-likelihood using sequential Monte Carlo smoothing. Based on these gradient approximations, we develop a new algorithm for maximizing the likelihood using the Nesterov accelerated gradient. We adopt the accelerated inexact gradient algorithm (Ghadimi and Lan 2016) to iterated filtering framework, relaxing the unbiased gradient approximation condition. We devise a perturbation policy for iterated filtering, allowing the new algorithm to converge at an optimal rate for both concave and non-concave log-likelihood functions. It is comparable to the recently developed Bayes map iterated filtering approach and outperforms the original iterated filtering approach
Do We Need Experts for Time Series Forecasting?
This study examines a selection of off-the-shelf forecastingand forecast combination algorithms with a focus on assessing their practical relevance by drawing conclusions for non-expert users. Some of the methods have only recently been introduced and have not been part in
comparative empirical evaluations before. Considering the advances of forecasting techniques, this analysis addresses the question whether we need human expertise for forecasting or whether the investigated methods provide comparable performance
Unified Heat Kernel Regression for Diffusion, Kernel Smoothing and Wavelets on Manifolds and Its Application to Mandible Growth Modeling in CT Images
We present a novel kernel regression framework for smoothing scalar surface
data using the Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions. Starting with the heat kernel
constructed from the eigenfunctions, we formulate a new bivariate kernel
regression framework as a weighted eigenfunction expansion with the heat kernel
as the weights. The new kernel regression is mathematically equivalent to
isotropic heat diffusion, kernel smoothing and recently popular diffusion
wavelets. Unlike many previous partial differential equation based approaches
involving diffusion, our approach represents the solution of diffusion
analytically, reducing numerical inaccuracy and slow convergence. The numerical
implementation is validated on a unit sphere using spherical harmonics. As an
illustration, we have applied the method in characterizing the localized growth
pattern of mandible surfaces obtained in CT images from subjects between ages 0
and 20 years by regressing the length of displacement vectors with respect to
the template surface.Comment: Accepted in Medical Image Analysi
Optimization viewpoint on Kalman smoothing, with applications to robust and sparse estimation
In this paper, we present the optimization formulation of the Kalman
filtering and smoothing problems, and use this perspective to develop a variety
of extensions and applications. We first formulate classic Kalman smoothing as
a least squares problem, highlight special structure, and show that the classic
filtering and smoothing algorithms are equivalent to a particular algorithm for
solving this problem. Once this equivalence is established, we present
extensions of Kalman smoothing to systems with nonlinear process and
measurement models, systems with linear and nonlinear inequality constraints,
systems with outliers in the measurements or sudden changes in the state, and
systems where the sparsity of the state sequence must be accounted for. All
extensions preserve the computational efficiency of the classic algorithms, and
most of the extensions are illustrated with numerical examples, which are part
of an open source Kalman smoothing Matlab/Octave package.Comment: 46 pages, 11 figure
Replica Conditional Sequential Monte Carlo
We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to perform state
inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. Current
state-of-the-art methods to address this problem rely on particle MCMC
techniques and its variants, such as the iterated conditional Sequential Monte
Carlo (cSMC) scheme, which uses a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) type proposal
within MCMC. A deficiency of standard SMC proposals is that they only use
observations up to time to propose states at time when an entire
observation sequence is available. More sophisticated SMC based on lookahead
techniques could be used but they can be difficult to put in practice. We
propose here replica cSMC where we build SMC proposals for one replica using
information from the entire observation sequence by conditioning on the states
of the other replicas. This approach is easily parallelizable and we
demonstrate its excellent empirical performance when compared to the standard
iterated cSMC scheme at fixed computational complexity.Comment: To appear in Proceedings of ICML '1
Fast space-variant elliptical filtering using box splines
The efficient realization of linear space-variant (non-convolution) filters
is a challenging computational problem in image processing. In this paper, we
demonstrate that it is possible to filter an image with a Gaussian-like
elliptic window of varying size, elongation and orientation using a fixed
number of computations per pixel. The associated algorithm, which is based on a
family of smooth compactly supported piecewise polynomials, the
radially-uniform box splines, is realized using pre-integration and local
finite-differences. The radially-uniform box splines are constructed through
the repeated convolution of a fixed number of box distributions, which have
been suitably scaled and distributed radially in an uniform fashion. The
attractive features of these box splines are their asymptotic behavior, their
simple covariance structure, and their quasi-separability. They converge to
Gaussians with the increase of their order, and are used to approximate
anisotropic Gaussians of varying covariance simply by controlling the scales of
the constituent box distributions. Based on the second feature, we develop a
technique for continuously controlling the size, elongation and orientation of
these Gaussian-like functions. Finally, the quasi-separable structure, along
with a certain scaling property of box distributions, is used to efficiently
realize the associated space-variant elliptical filtering, which requires O(1)
computations per pixel irrespective of the shape and size of the filter.Comment: 12 figures; IEEE Transactions on Image Processing, vol. 19, 201
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