Building more accurate decision trees with the additive tree.

The expansion of machine learning to high-stakes application domains such as medicine, finance, and criminal justice, where making informed decisions requires clear understanding of the model, has increased the interest in interpretable machine learning. The widely used Classification and Regression Trees (CART) have played a major role in health sciences, due to their simple and intuitive explanation of predictions. Ensemble methods like gradient boosting can improve the accuracy of decision trees, but at the expense of the interpretability of the generated model. Additive models, such as those produced by gradient boosting, and full interaction models, such as CART, have been investigated largely in isolation. We show that these models exist along a spectrum, revealing previously unseen connections between these approaches. This paper introduces a rigorous formalization for the additive tree, an empirically validated learning technique for creating a single decision tree, and shows that this method can produce models equivalent to CART or gradient boosted stumps at the extremes by varying a single parameter. Although the additive tree is designed primarily to provide both the model interpretability and predictive performance needed for high-stakes applications like medicine, it also can produce decision trees represented by hybrid models between CART and boosted stumps that can outperform either of these approaches

An overview of decision table literature 1982-1995.

This report gives an overview of the literature on decision tables over the past 15 years. As much as possible, for each reference, an author supplied abstract, a number of keywords and a classification are provided. In some cases own comments are added. The purpose of these comments is to show where, how and why decision tables are used. The literature is classified according to application area, theoretical versus practical character, year of publication, country or origin (not necessarily country of publication) and the language of the document. After a description of the scope of the interview, classification results and the classification by topic are presented. The main body of the paper is the ordered list of publications with abstract, classification and comments.

DATA MINING: A SEGMENTATION ANALYSIS OF U.S. GROCERY SHOPPERS

Consumers make choices about where to shop based on their preferences for a shopping environment and experience as well as the selection of products at a particular store. This study illustrates how retail firms and marketing analysts can utilize data mining techniques to better understand customer profiles and behavior. Among the key areas where data mining can produce new knowledge is the segmentation of customer data bases according to demographics, buying patterns, geographics, attitudes, and other variables. This paper builds profiles of grocery shoppers based on their preferences for 33 retail grocery store characteristics. The data are from a representative, nationwide sample of 900 supermarket shoppers collected in 1999. Six customer profiles are found to exist, including (1) "Time Pressed Meat Eaters", (2) "Back to Nature Shoppers", (3) "Discriminating Leisure Shoppers", (4) "No Nonsense Shoppers", (5) "The One Stop Socialites", and (6) "Middle of the Road Shoppers". Each of the customer profiles is described with respect to the underlying demographics and income. Consumer shopping segments cut across most demographic groups but are somewhat correlated with income. Hierarchical lists of preferences reveal that low price is not among the top five most important store characteristics. Experience and preferences for internet shopping shows that of the 44% who have access to the internet, only 3% had used it to order food.Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Application of decision trees and multivariate regression trees in design and optimization

Induction of decision trees and regression trees is a powerful technique not only for performing ordinary classification and regression analysis but also for discovering the often complex knowledge which describes the input-output behavior of a learning system in qualitative forms;In the area of classification (discrimination analysis), a new technique called IDea is presented for performing incremental learning with decision trees. It is demonstrated that IDea\u27s incremental learning can greatly reduce the spatial complexity of a given set of training examples. Furthermore, it is shown that this reduction in complexity can also be used as an effective tool for improving the learning efficiency of other types of inductive learners such as standard backpropagation neural networks;In the area of regression analysis, a new methodology for performing multiobjective optimization has been developed. Specifically, we demonstrate that muitiple-objective optimization through induction of multivariate regression trees is a powerful alternative to the conventional vector optimization techniques. Furthermore, in an attempt to investigate the effect of various types of splitting rules on the overall performance of the optimizing system, we present a tree partitioning algorithm which utilizes a number of techniques derived from diverse fields of statistics and fuzzy logic. These include: two multivariate statistical approaches based on dispersion matrices, an information-theoretic measure of covariance complexity which is typically used for obtaining multivariate linear models, two newly-formulated fuzzy splitting rules based on Pearson\u27s parametric and Kendall\u27s nonparametric measures of association, Bellman and Zadeh\u27s fuzzy decision-maximizing approach within an inductive framework, and finally, the multidimensional extension of a widely-used fuzzy entropy measure. The advantages of this new approach to optimization are highlighted by presenting three examples which respectively deal with design of a three-bar truss, a beam, and an electric discharge machining (EDM) process

The 1990 progress report and future plans

This document describes the progress and plans of the Artificial Intelligence Research Branch (RIA) at ARC in 1990. Activities span a range from basic scientific research to engineering development and to fielded NASA applications, particularly those applications that are enabled by basic research carried out at RIA. Work is conducted in-house and through collaborative partners in academia and industry. Our major focus is on a limited number of research themes with a dual commitment to technical excellence and proven applicability to NASA short, medium, and long-term problems. RIA acts as the Agency's lead organization for research aspects of artificial intelligence, working closely with a second research laboratory at JPL and AI applications groups at all NASA centers

Benchmarking in cluster analysis: A white paper

To achieve scientific progress in terms of building a cumulative body of knowledge, careful attention to benchmarking is of the utmost importance. This means that proposals of new methods of data pre-processing, new data-analytic techniques, and new methods of output post-processing, should be extensively and carefully compared with existing alternatives, and that existing methods should be subjected to neutral comparison studies. To date, benchmarking and recommendations for benchmarking have been frequently seen in the context of supervised learning. Unfortunately, there has been a dearth of guidelines for benchmarking in an unsupervised setting, with the area of clustering as an important subdomain. To address this problem, discussion is given to the theoretical conceptual underpinnings of benchmarking in the field of cluster analysis by means of simulated as well as empirical data. Subsequently, the practicalities of how to address benchmarking questions in clustering are dealt with, and foundational recommendations are made

On Cognitive Preferences and the Plausibility of Rule-based Models

It is conventional wisdom in machine learning and data mining that logical models such as rule sets are more interpretable than other models, and that among such rule-based models, simpler models are more interpretable than more complex ones. In this position paper, we question this latter assumption by focusing on one particular aspect of interpretability, namely the plausibility of models. Roughly speaking, we equate the plausibility of a model with the likeliness that a user accepts it as an explanation for a prediction. In particular, we argue that, all other things being equal, longer explanations may be more convincing than shorter ones, and that the predominant bias for shorter models, which is typically necessary for learning powerful discriminative models, may not be suitable when it comes to user acceptance of the learned models. To that end, we first recapitulate evidence for and against this postulate, and then report the results of an evaluation in a crowd-sourcing study based on about 3.000 judgments. The results do not reveal a strong preference for simple rules, whereas we can observe a weak preference for longer rules in some domains. We then relate these results to well-known cognitive biases such as the conjunction fallacy, the representative heuristic, or the recogition heuristic, and investigate their relation to rule length and plausibility.Comment: V4: Another rewrite of section on interpretability to clarify focus on plausibility and relation to interpretability, comprehensibility, and justifiabilit

Simulating California reservoir operation using the classification and regression-tree algorithm combined with a shuffled cross-validation scheme

The controlled outflows from a reservoir or dam are highly dependent on the decisions made by the reservoir operators, instead of a natural hydrological process. Difference exists between the natural upstream inflows to reservoirs and the controlled outflows from reservoirs that supply the downstream users. With the decision maker's awareness of changing climate, reservoir management requires adaptable means to incorporate more information into decision making, such as water delivery requirement, environmental constraints, dry/wet conditions, etc. In this paper, a robust reservoir outflow simulation model is presented, which incorporates one of the well-developed data-mining models (Classification and Regression Tree) to predict the complicated human-controlled reservoir outflows and extract the reservoir operation patterns. A shuffled cross-validation approach is further implemented to improve CART's predictive performance. An application study of nine major reservoirs in California is carried out. Results produced by the enhanced CART, original CART, and random forest are compared with observation. The statistical measurements show that the enhanced CART and random forest overperform the CART control run in general, and the enhanced CART algorithm gives a better predictive performance over random forest in simulating the peak flows. The results also show that the proposed model is able to consistently and reasonably predict the expert release decisions. Experiments indicate that the release operation in the Oroville Lake is significantly dominated by SWP allocation amount and reservoirs with low elevation are more sensitive to inflow amount than others

Machine learning based data pre-processing for the purpose of medical data mining and decision support

Building an accurate and reliable model for prediction for different application domains, is one of the most significant challenges in knowledge discovery and data mining. Sometimes, improved data quality is itself the goal of the analysis, usually to improve processes in a production database and the designing of decision support. As medicine moves forward there is a need for sophisticated decision support systems that make use of data mining to support more orthodox knowledge engineering and Health Informatics practice. However, the real-life medical data rarely complies with the requirements of various data mining tools. It is often inconsistent, noisy, containing redundant attributes, in an unsuitable format, containing missing values and imbalanced with regards to the outcome class label.Many real-life data sets are incomplete, with missing values. In medical data mining the problem with missing values has become a challenging issue. In many clinical trials, the medical report pro-forma allow some attributes to be left blank, because they are inappropriate for some class of illness or the person providing the information feels that it is not appropriate to record the values for some attributes. The research reported in this thesis has explored the use of machine learning techniques as missing value imputation methods. The thesis also proposed a new way of imputing missing value by supervised learning. A classifier was used to learn the data patterns from a complete data sub-set and the model was later used to predict the missing values for the full dataset. The proposed machine learning based missing value imputation was applied on the thesis data and the results are compared with traditional Mean/Mode imputation. Experimental results show that all the machine learning methods which we explored outperformed the statistical method (Mean/Mode).The class imbalance problem has been found to hinder the performance of learning systems. In fact, most of the medical datasets are found to be highly imbalance in their class label. The solution to this problem is to reduce the gap between the minority class samples and the majority class samples. Over-sampling can be applied to increase the number of minority class sample to balance the data. The alternative to over-sampling is under-sampling where the size of majority class sample is reduced. The thesis proposed one cluster based under-sampling technique to reduce the gap between the majority and minority samples. Different under-sampling and over-sampling techniques were explored as ways to balance the data. The experimental results show that for the thesis data the new proposed modified cluster based under-sampling technique performed better than other class balancing techniques.In further research it is found that the class imbalance problem not only affects the classification performance but also has an adverse effect on feature selection. The thesis proposed a new framework for feature selection for class imbalanced datasets. The research found that, using the proposed framework the classifier needs less attributes to show high accuracy, and more attributes are needed if the data is highly imbalanced.The research described in the thesis contains the flowing four novel main contributions.a) Improved data mining methodology for mining medical datab) Machine learning based missing value imputation methodc) Cluster Based semi-supervised class balancing methodd) Feature selection framework for class imbalance datasetsThe performance analysis and comparative study show that the use of proposed method of missing value imputation, class balancing and feature selection framework can provide an effective approach to data preparation for building medical decision support