Ensemble Kalman methods for high-dimensional hierarchical dynamic space-time models

We propose a new class of filtering and smoothing methods for inference in high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, spatio-temporal state-space models. The main idea is to combine the ensemble Kalman filter and smoother, developed in the geophysics literature, with state-space algorithms from the statistics literature. Our algorithms address a variety of estimation scenarios, including on-line and off-line state and parameter estimation. We take a Bayesian perspective, for which the goal is to generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of states and parameters. The key benefit of our approach is the use of ensemble Kalman methods for dimension reduction, which allows inference for high-dimensional state vectors. We compare our methods to existing ones, including ensemble Kalman filters, particle filters, and particle MCMC. Using a real data example of cloud motion and data simulated under a number of nonlinear and non-Gaussian scenarios, we show that our approaches outperform these existing methods

Particle approximations of the score and observed information matrix for parameter estimation in state space models with linear computational cost

Poyiadjis et al. (2011) show how particle methods can be used to estimate both the score and the observed information matrix for state space models. These methods either suffer from a computational cost that is quadratic in the number of particles, or produce estimates whose variance increases quadratically with the amount of data. This paper introduces an alternative approach for estimating these terms at a computational cost that is linear in the number of particles. The method is derived using a combination of kernel density estimation, to avoid the particle degeneracy that causes the quadratically increasing variance, and Rao-Blackwellisation. Crucially, we show the method is robust to the choice of bandwidth within the kernel density estimation, as it has good asymptotic properties regardless of this choice. Our estimates of the score and observed information matrix can be used within both online and batch procedures for estimating parameters for state space models. Empirical results show improved parameter estimates compared to existing methods at a significantly reduced computational cost. Supplementary materials including code are available.Comment: Accepted to Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistic

ILAPF: Incremental Learning Assisted Particle Filtering

This paper is concerned with dynamic system state estimation based on a series of noisy measurement with the presence of outliers. An incremental learning assisted particle filtering (ILAPF) method is presented, which can learn the value range of outliers incrementally during the process of particle filtering. The learned range of outliers is then used to improve subsequent filtering of the future state. Convergence of the outlier range estimation procedure is indicated by extensive empirical simulations using a set of differing outlier distribution models. The validity of the ILAPF algorithm is evaluated by illustrative simulations, and the result shows that ILAPF is more accurate and faster than a recently published state-ofthe-art robust particle filter. It also shows that the incremental learning property of the ILAPF algorithm provides an efficient way to implement transfer learning among related state filtering tasks.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, conferenc

Robustness of System-Filter Separation for the Feedback Control of a Quantum Harmonic Oscillator Undergoing Continuous Position Measurement

We consider the effects of experimental imperfections on the problem of estimation-based feedback control of a trapped particle under continuous position measurement. These limitations violate the assumption that the estimator (i.e. filter) accurately models the underlying system, thus requiring a separate analysis of the system and filter dynamics. We quantify the parameter regimes for stable cooling, and show that the control scheme is robust to detector inefficiency, time delay, technical noise, and miscalibrated parameters. We apply these results to the specific context of a weakly interacting Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC). Given that this system has previously been shown to be less stable than a feedback-cooled BEC with strong interatomic interactions, this result shows that reasonable experimental imperfections do not limit the feasibility of cooling a BEC by continuous measurement and feedback.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Bibliographic Review on Distributed Kalman Filtering

In recent years, a compelling need has arisen to understand the effects of distributed information structures on estimation and filtering. In this paper, a bibliographical review on distributed Kalman filtering (DKF) is provided.\ud The paper contains a classification of different approaches and methods involved to DKF. The applications of DKF are also discussed and explained separately. A comparison of different approaches is briefly carried out. Focuses on the contemporary research are also addressed with emphasis on the practical applications of the techniques. An exhaustive list of publications, linked directly or indirectly to DKF in the open literature, is compiled to provide an overall picture of different developing aspects of this area

State-Observation Sampling and the Econometrics of Learning Models

In nonlinear state-space models, sequential learning about the hidden state can proceed by particle filtering when the density of the observation conditional on the state is available analytically (e.g. Gordon et al., 1993). This condition need not hold in complex environments, such as the incomplete-information equilibrium models considered in financial economics. In this paper, we make two contributions to the learning literature. First, we introduce a new filtering method, the state-observation sampling (SOS) filter, for general state-space models with intractable observation densities. Second, we develop an indirect inference-based estimator for a large class of incomplete-information economies. We demonstrate the good performance of these techniques on an asset pricing model with investor learning applied to over 80 years of daily equity returns

Fast Monte-Carlo Localization on Aerial Vehicles using Approximate Continuous Belief Representations

Size, weight, and power constrained platforms impose constraints on computational resources that introduce unique challenges in implementing localization algorithms. We present a framework to perform fast localization on such platforms enabled by the compressive capabilities of Gaussian Mixture Model representations of point cloud data. Given raw structural data from a depth sensor and pitch and roll estimates from an on-board attitude reference system, a multi-hypothesis particle filter localizes the vehicle by exploiting the likelihood of the data originating from the mixture model. We demonstrate analysis of this likelihood in the vicinity of the ground truth pose and detail its utilization in a particle filter-based vehicle localization strategy, and later present results of real-time implementations on a desktop system and an off-the-shelf embedded platform that outperform localization results from running a state-of-the-art algorithm on the same environment